Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

I have a few more years to decide, but I totally agree. Previously, I was planning on keeping my $$ in TSP. After the gyrations of the last few weeks, the limited moves, by Noon ET, have sold me on moving my $$ to something that allows more flexibility.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

This whole experience the last few weeks has me rethinking my decision to not roll over my TSP to an IRA now that I'm retired...the 12 noon IFT deadline and 2 IFT's/month rules have crushed what was a nice gain a couple weeks ago, from +7% to -7% in just days. That would have never happened with an IRA, where you could also make moves pretty much 24/7 and not be at the mercy of the market closing price. I also can't stand the TSP's dumb rule that you have to send them a notarized form (with the spouse's concurrence) every time you change the amount of your monthly withdrawal or make a small one-time withdrawal. I might change my mind soon and do the rollover so that I'd have both my Roth IRA and a new traditional IRA with TD Ameritrade (soon to be Schwab-Ameritrade or whatever the new company will be called). My Roth IRA is at +51.6% as of today, my trading account is at +145% as of this moment ...my TSP -7%? I really need to make that move and rid myself of the TSP.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

My Roth IRA is at +51.6% as of today, my trading account is at +145% as of this moment ...my TSP -7%? I really need to make that move and rid myself of the TSP.

Same here! I am so mad right now I could chew nails and spit barbed wire! I made an IFT today right before the cut off. The market was about flat at that time. Then it closed up 5%. Had I had it in my Fidelity account I would have used the same amount of money and bought the SPY. I would have sold before the close and made 5% today alone! Seriously, I am considering just taking my $260k out of the TSP, paying the 10% penalty and the taxes and putting MY money in Fidelity so I can manage it as I see fit.

Hmm, just like last Friday, yesterday I had an IFT in to move to G and cancelled it at the last minute. But today I see that TSP moved me to G last night. Did they have mercy on me? Maybe I messed up and didn't hit the "submit" button (I did that once before in the past)? The tracker will still show me in stocks today, but I'm in G, and my TSP balance is all the way down to where it was when I retired 14 months ago. In any case, I'm glad (for the moment) to wake up to this news, but now I'm locked out until 4/1, and I still think the market is going to bounce in a big way soon....although at this point I don't see anything the government can do to "fix" things.

The first step in fixing things will be when we see the yellow "other locations" line in the lower right chart start to flatten out...for the best view hit the logarithmic tab then the upper right button to go full screen.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

A couple thoughts on targets....perhaps the final bottom will come at the 50% level at around 1700, which happens to be the where the 200-month moving average is:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...=668&cmd=print
It seems like that would be the worst case if the panic continues for another week or two, but then again there's Hussman's target of around a 80% crash.

Peter Eliades has come out with a new target that's about 15% lower at a minimum. That could be reached by tomorrow very easily...beware the Ides of March...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3GeRQXXNwc

Honestly, I don't think the government fixing things will be what turns things around; I think it will be reports like the one I posted where nothing is really happening to the economy... and people pull their heads out of their... the sand, yeah, the sand... that's the ticket!

With more and more people staying home, how can that NOT negatively impact the economy?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Honestly, I don't think the government fixing things will be what turns things around; I think it will be reports like the one I posted where nothing is really happening to the economy... and people pull their heads out of their... the sand, yeah, the sand... that's the ticket!

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

With more and more people staying home, how can that NOT negatively impact the economy?

I may be a focus group of one, but I was out last night and all the restaurants near my house were packed. The problems are where 'social distancing' is being imposed on people... St. Pat's Parades being cancelled, students being sent home, sports events cancelled... for no good reason. The Wuhan Flu doesn't appear any more contagious or dangerous than the regular flu.

Something I've never seen, chart #05, the S&P has penetrated the lower envelope, really oversold here...
https://stockcharts.com/public/1172710

Tim Wood interviews Peter Eliades:
https://www.cyclesman.com/wp-content...ter-030920.mp3

Just for the record, my move to the G fund was yesterday on 3/11, not today. So I luckily avoided today's huge loss and I'm 14.5% above the C fund, but that could completely evaporate by the time I can get back in on April Fools Day....

TSP IFT.jpg

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

I may be a focus group of one, but I was out last night and all the restaurants near my house were packed. The problems are where 'social distancing' is being imposed on people... St. Pat's Parades being cancelled, students being sent home, sports events cancelled... for no good reason. The Wuhan Flu doesn't appear any more contagious or dangerous than the regular flu.

possibly; "Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times "more lethal" than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization's current estimate of 3.4%."

I'm not afraid of the virus. I'm afraid of the people.
Prepped and ready!

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

Originally Posted by wahinepio

possibly; "Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times "more lethal" than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization's current estimate of 3.4%."

The seasonal flu 'lethality' is 0.1%... so, Wuhan Flu is maybe 1%. Well below the WHO's numbers.

A question for anyone that's done it, how long is the timeline for transferring your TSP to a traditional IRA with a broker? I'm wondering if it can be done within 2 weeks or does the TSP drag it out longer?