Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Looks like the wave 3 low is in at 1901...now comes a wave 4....a normal 23% retracement of the wave 3 fall would peak around 1948...maybe as soon as tomorrow...then down in wave 5 to the low I want to attempt to time a buy with my second IFT, maybe as soon as this Friday.

An interesting read from John Mauldin...
Economicus Terra Incognita | Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Looks like the wave 3 low is in at 1901...now comes a wave 4....a normal 23% retracement of the wave 3 fall would peak around 1948...maybe as soon as tomorrow...then down in wave 5 to the low I want to attempt to time a buy with my second IFT, maybe as soon as this Friday.

An interesting read from John Mauldin...
Economicus Terra Incognita | Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

Hello from Aloha Land. Headed back to Arizona today. I took a bath in market last week but at least enjoyed the surf here. If you ever travel to Kona...you have to take the Fairbanks Hula Kai adventure and swim with the manta rays. We had 4 of them join us...the largest had an 8 foot wing span. Graceful and very friendly. No wonder KK lives here. Best food was at Jackie Reyes...absolutely to die for especially the Lilokai cheese cake.

Headed to the airport and then back to home turf. Hope we turned the corner today and that we bounce. We need to break above 1956 for me to feel comfortable....hopefully we make 2020 so we can get back close to even...absolutely no guarantees in this market. I'll be out around at 2000ish if we make it that far.

How about that crappie kick TS. My bet is he'll be feeling the heat in Minneapolis...and it's been a bit chilly there...heh heh.

Look forward to jumping back on the Forum when we get home and settled back in.

FS

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Looks like that wave 4 may already be done, if so it was very weak.

Too bad CNBC won't put someone on to tell the truth about the relative overvaluation of the markets right now, and if they do they give them about 30 seconds to talk and them mock them. Instead it's a steady diet of permabulls most of the time....I like Hulbert, he provides the truth:
Stocks still aren

Meanwhile the permabears are growling. I don't think things can get this bad...but then again, I never thought oil could get back below $30 either....
S&P could plunge 75% to 550, says SocGen perma-bear Albert Edwards - MarketWatch

Thought, I'd better move this out of Dinicti's thread.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Ah ha! That place cost DOE a massive headache a few years ago as it was being transitioned to a private facility. There was a small container with some rather nasty radioactive garbage that took 4 or 5 years and probably well over a million dollars to finally dispose of....Maybe you're the culprit that created it LOL....another tidbit that may interest you...due to New Mexico's refusal to comply with DHS's driver's license rules, very soon ITRI employees may have to start showing passports at the base gate in order to get to their jobs.

Thanks for those tidbits of information. I was wondering if they'de ever find that. They must have gotten suspicious that nobody's lunch in that fridge ever spoiled. Actually, I never worked with the really hot stuff; only low level beta emitters like C14 & Ni63.

Believe it or not, according to the test animals the worst thing I ever worked with was cigarette smoke. ITRI was just starting up the combined studies with cigarette smoke and other toxins when I left. Because of the lawsuits brought by uranium miners the government wanted to know how much of their cancer was brought about by mining yellow cake and how much was due to their own smoking. That's not an easy question to answer because the combined affects can be worse than the sum of each separately.

Anyways, the first tests didn't work because the rats refused to smoke. They would literally turn their heads around in the exposure tubes and suffocate themselves rather than breath in the smoke. It really makes you stop and think. We had to redesign the exposure chambers for those studies. It took a lot more time after that because we had to yolk and collar every animal and bolt its head into place in the tube. It was kind of pathetic, actually. I'm glad I left before that really got going.

P.S. At that time the institute was run by four directors, all MDs. 3 out of 4 of those doctors were smokers.

The impact of oil on the market is absolutely astounding. Looks like we are headed for the 1901 pivot. If that breaks.... 1867 is up next. If oil hasn't found a bottom by then, we could a further slide to as low as 1750SPX (with 1820 and 1800 pivots along the way as possible support). My guess would be that at 1867 you'll get another rally but the question in this market will be "Is it corrective?" We're all reading the TA indicators and I don't feel like they particularly helped me know how things are going. The news is dominating the market action and TA has worked "against me" more recently than "for me". For the past two months, we are seeing a trend of a one or two day rally followed by many days of downward action. I was thinking we were headed for a nice rally in the last two weeks of this month but now I'm not so sure. But that's how they like it...uncertainty reigns supreme in the marketplace.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

The impact of oil on the market is absolutely astounding. Looks like we are headed for the 1901 pivot. If that breaks.... 1867 is up next. If oil hasn't found a bottom by then, we could a further slide to as low as 1750SPX (with 1820 and 1800 pivots along the way as possible support). My guess would be that at 1867 you'll get another rally but the question in this market will be "Is it corrective?" We're all reading the TA indicators and I don't feel like they particularly helped me know how things are going. The news is dominating the market action and TA has worked "against me" more recently than "for me". For the past two months, we are seeing a trend of a one or two day rally followed by many days of downward action. I was thinking we were headed for a nice rally in the last two weeks of this month but now I'm not so sure. But that's how they like it...uncertainty reigns supreme in the marketplace.

FS

Wow! Talk about getting slaughtered. I'm in for the elevator to the bottom...or perhaps...like previous stock market crashes...catching the falling knife takes off a few fingers. 😱

Tom mentioned the strong inventory report today...here's a story about that. The part about no ships moving worldwide was proven to be bunk, but the Baltic Dry Index plunging to record lows is real, and not a good thing...
"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt" | Zero Hedge

This looks pretty scary...makes me think that an S&P 500 low around 1575 is optimistic...
NYSE Margin Debt Rose Fractionally in November - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

The Wilshire 5000 cracked below it's neckline today. The H&S pattern targets 14% lower from today's close...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--VFl7hnc9d...re%2BDaily.png

Despite all that, I think I'll be moving into the C fund tomorrow...lets see how bad I can screw up my account. At least I'll have lots of company.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Tom mentioned the strong inventory report today...here's a story about that. The part about no ships moving worldwide was proven to be bunk, but the Baltic Dry Index plunging to record lows is real, and not a good thing...
"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt" | Zero Hedge

This looks pretty scary...makes me think that an S&P 500 low around 1575 is optimistic...
NYSE Margin Debt Rose Fractionally in November - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

The Wilshire 5000 cracked below it's neckline today. The H&S pattern targets 14% lower from today's close...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--VFl7hnc9d...re%2BDaily.png

Despite all that, I think I'll be moving into the C fund tomorrow...lets see how bad I can screw up my account. At least I'll have lots of company.

LOL

Well that didn't take long...upon further review, I've chickened out and am aborting that move to C, for now. I think there's still another larger wave 4 and 5 to go and it so it might not bottom until late in the month.

LOL...the powerball website is down from all the traffic...that could be the situation for online brokers soon too...

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Well that didn't take long...upon further review, I've chickened out and am aborting that move to C, for now. I think there's still another larger wave 4 and 5 to go and it so it might not bottom until late in the month.

LOL...the powerball website is down from all the traffic...that could be the situation for online brokers soon too...

Wise choice!!!

Wow, bear market rallies are vicious...up more than 2% in just under 50 minutes! At this rate, it will hit the 1998 target for wave 2 today... LOL.

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