Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Originally Posted by ravensfan

Full moon comes in on 23 March...Are we getting ready for a trend reversal? Hmm, last 3 cycles have all been positive...

Sure looks that way. I count that we just completed a clear 5 waves down from yesterday's peak. Now we should be starting a wave 2 bounce. I also see some pretty head and shoulders patterns developing. I've drawn one here using my fancy schmanzy artistic snippet software showing the lows of the last two days for QQQ and where it should bounce to (107.85ish) for the right shoulder. If that's what happens, then tomorrow should bring a crummy Thursday (wave 3 down) before Good Friday...

QQQ H&S.jpg

Wow that was a weak wave 2...it was a perfect Fibonacci 38.2% retracement for QQQ...looks like the first minor wave 3 down is underway.
I went short with UVXY (Roth IRA) and QQQ April puts (trading account) right at that afternoon peak. Fingers crossed for a gap down tomorrow (which would be the middle of this wave 3 down in this initial decline).

It will be interesting to see how fast the lemmings turn from greed to panic...or if I'm way off base, again.

Miscellaneous bearish looking stuff...

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https://northmantrader.files.wordpre.../04/djia42.png

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Options Guru Says VIX Looks Poised To Pop, Sees

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ric...ing-2016-03-23

Market looks poised to finally break down tomorrow...meanwhile the F fund is looking good if this cycle repeats again....

https://href.li/?http://s17.postimg....ommend_TLT.png

The Bollinger bands are very narrow, the Elliott waves are set up for a big move in either direction...but which way?

Here's one clue which way it could go...
$BPSPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Things look a lot like early November on the charts, e.g., chart #2 on Jeffrey Young's page....
Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Originally Posted by Tsunami

The Bollinger bands are very narrow, the Elliott waves are set up for a big move in either direction...but which way?

Here's one clue which way it could go...
$BPSPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Things look a lot like early November on the charts, e.g., chart #2 on Jeffrey Young's page....
Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Tsunami,

By looking at chart #2 from Jeffrey Young, I believe that I see a couple of times that depict a trend change trigger drop. Is that depicted already by looking at the very recent cross to the downside of the dark line over the green line? Has the drop been triggered already? Thank you.

Airlift,

On that chart I was mostly just looking at the lower panel. I don't even know what that indicator is since it's not labeled, but I've seen numerous charts recently that are similar and show a rollover from a very high level. Here's one, notice that the Money Flow Indicator (MFI) last peaked in October, then the S&P peak came about two weeks later. The same thing has happened this time and if history repeats the next significant low should come in mid- to late-June.
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
I'm looking for an initial wave 1 drop next week down to the 50dma on that chart, so 1980ish...the waves are set up perfectly for a sharp decline (the middle of wave 3 of that larger wave 1 drop) starting first thing Monday, so if that doesn't happen the bulls win yet again. I think gravity will finally take hold Monday though.

Looking at this, it immediately brings up an image of Wile E. Coyote hanging in mid-air after leaping off the face of a cliff...
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Still not near a bullish crossover in the monthly RSI or MACD, so I'm still in bearish mode until that happens, or until the S&P gets above the early November peak at 2116...
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I like to listen to the Financialsense weekend podcasts, I've been doing that for over 10 years now. The Puplava's are very conservative in predicting market downturns but they're starting to lean that way now and expecting a recession in 2017. The market sniffs out recessions well in advance so a decline now makes sense.
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Miscellaneous stuff…
If the market is down next week as I expect, it will be only the second time since 1982 that the April OpEx has been significantly down:
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/142478793578/april-expiration-week-has-been-strong
Harry Dent’s April Fool’s Day commentary might have timed the top of wave 2 perfectly. Most of his calls are terrible, but I’m a believer in his overall demographics thesis being the primary reason for the stock market’s maliase in the first two decades of this century:
http://economyandmarkets.com/markets/stocks/think-the-market-will-reach-a-new-high-heres-why-we-dont/
Lucy, you have some splaining to do!... McClellen couldn’t come up with an explanation for why his prediction didn’t come true, so he’s throwing it out…but I like his charts prediction for a low in October 2016. If we just started wave 3 of C downon 4/1/16, then October or November fits for a bottom to wave 3, with wave 5 down then bottoming in the spring of 2017…rhyming with the Nov ‘08/March ’09 lows of the last bear market:
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/eurodollar_cot_throws_a_curveball/
Eduard Altman (aka “Gunner”) doesn’t mention it in this commentary, and I know nothing at all about Gann stuff, but I like the convergence of lines in his S&P 500 chart in April at 1595 for the ultimate bottom of this bear market:
http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/april-2016/03042016/
All of this fits pretty well with PUGs big picture count, but just sped up time-wise (see his April 8^th Twitter post with the two charts, including the 8^th year of the Presidential cycle which predicts a peak in early April then down down down into late-November):
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket
Here’s that 8^th year chart article again, I think this is the one to follow for this year, not the 4-year chart…a low near trading day #226 equates to just before Thanksgiving, and going back to 2008, 11/20/2008 was the major closing-price low…in fact that was THE low for some index’s including QQQ (the bottom was intraday on 11/21/08):
http://www.businessinsider.com/presidential-cycle-stock-market-performance-2016-1
Peter Eliades’ latest, interesting cycle’s discussion and he’s still bearish, and I guess I need to put a major stock market tops in 2035-36 and 2041-42 and 2048 on my calendar: http://consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/0329fc-pesc.htm
A new high in the NYSE A-D line could really turn things bullish. So far it hasn’t quite gotten there though. The late March peak, coinciding with Eliades’ article, fell just 13 points shy of the peaka year ago. I plan to keep an eye on this one…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p93809326926
OK, I can’t stall any longer, time for yard work.

So the IMF releases a statement at the crack of dawn that they've decided that negative interest rates are the greatest thing since sliced bread (really?, look at Japan, clearly keeping rates low for a long time doesn't work in fighting the demographic tsunami of aging populations) and the futures turned on a dime and reversed from red to green...so we got a short covering rally to start the week.

But unless 2116 is broken to the upside I'm still bearish. I'm in the minority, but that makes me feel even better about it. Earning's reports start rolling in this week. If the S&P shoots above the recent peak at 2075 and then the November peak of 2116, I'll cry uncle. We'll see. So far all of these sharp rallies are being sold in a game of musical chairs.

Uncle! I've seen nothing but 3-wave moves down, the bears can't get anything impulsive going, so I'm back in...thought it might only be for a few days...and it's an I fund month so 100% I fund, eek that's scary.

Hi TS. I've decided to wait until to see if SPX busts through 2060. It could do that this afternoon or not. If it does, I'll go in tomorrow hoping for OPEX. For today, I think I need to step away from this. The market makes absolutely no sense. What is it we don't know or aren't seeing?

FS