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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #961

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    This EW pattern would allow for a mild wave 4 over the next few weeks and then a seasonal rally to a final top in December. That would also let the S&P get up to that 2135 double top target, so I like this possibility...

    https://alphahorn.wordpress.com/2015...ight-on-track/

    I'm thinking maybe wave 4 drops down to the 2040 area per Ciovacco's weekend video charts, so that will be my target for my final jump into stocks this year.

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  3. #962

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Uncle! Just made my IFT to follow the seasonal strength and get in. If things go OK my next move might not be until in mid-December. I'm heading out on a work trip today and don't have time to overthink it....although per lunatic trader's post this morning a better entry point could be coming on Wednesday.

    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...-for-november/

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  5. #963

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Uncle! Just made my IFT to follow the seasonal strength and get in. If things go OK my next move might not be until in mid-December. I'm heading out on a work trip today and don't have time to overthink it....although per lunatic trader's post this morning a better entry point could be coming on Wednesday.

    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...-for-november/
    I've got 20% left to deploy, might be a good time for that. Thanks!
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!


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  7. #964

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    I've got 20% left to deploy, might be a good time for that. Thanks!
    Whipsaw and Tsunami, FWIW, due consideration should be given to a report on Bloomberg right after the close today. The panelists showed a chart in order to analyze the underlysing causes of this rally. Significantly, as shown in the chart, they attributed the rally to short covering. The chart showed a big drop in short-covering through today. so, please note this, because this could be an early warning (or not) but I cannot measure the potential downside percentage of any drop. However, the market seems overextended to the upside in need of a breather; and while any drop could be shallow, I wanted to share this with you - since you are expecting to deploy additional funds.

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  9. #965

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks Airlift for your information. I still think we're going to see a pullback to 2040-2020 range but my timing is always a bit off... and it appears it not be until later in the week or next week. The market has it's own timetable. The S Fund peaked at 1062.52 today which means we broke through the 100 day EMA and resistance at 1062 before pulling back slightly.Tomorrow we should see if the market has the strength to break through on the 100 EMA on course for new highs or if resistance holds and we begin to pullback. The day ended with a slight uptick so maybe there is momentum going into tomorrow. Let's see what the rest of the world does in the next 16 hours. Personally, I'd love to see us have a soaring day tomorrow but with all this good feeling comes a bit of angst.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #966

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Thanks Airlift for your information. I still think we're going to see a pullback to 2040-2020 range but my timing is always a bit off... and it appears it not be until later in the week or next week. The market has it's own timetable. The S Fund peaked at 1062.52 today which means we broke through the 100 day EMA and resistance at 1062 before pulling back slightly.Tomorrow we should see if the market has the strength to break through on the 100 EMA on course for new highs or if resistance holds and we begin to pullback. The day ended with a slight uptick so maybe there is momentum going into tomorrow. Let's see what the rest of the world does in the next 16 hours. Personally, I'd love to see us have a soaring day tomorrow but with all this good feeling comes a bit of angst.

    FS
    FogSailing,

    Excuse me for not including your name in my post. Your current post is excellent -- very specific and illustrative. Thank you. Rest assured that I have my own share of angst, even though we kow it comes with the territory. I'll be watching for the performance tomorrow, and I hope you maintain the flow of information going. I am sure that others are also waiting for your posts, a sense of guidance and opinions. This is a tricky market. Tia.

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  13. #967

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hi Airlift. Thank you for your info. I am getting to be bit cynical of all news. I was kidding around a few days ago and called it "market roulette". One of two news stories out of the plethora of media make the market that day or at least that's how it is sold. It's like going to the roulette wheel. Pick your story, place your bet. You never know. Thanks for your thoughtful and kind words.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  15. #968

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Addendum,

    FogSailing,
    are you using DWCPF for the S Fund? The 6 month daily chart shows that the previous close was 1056.00. It gapped down to 1053.89 at the open. The 100 day EMA ended at 1052.80, but DWCPF broke to the upside to intraday 1062.57. However, DWCPF closed decidedly higher than the 100 EMA, at 1058.45 Perhaps the price confirmation should be 1 or 2 days above the 100 EMA COB? What do you think?

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  17. #969

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Being on travel this week, I'm having an easy time ignoring all the news and crash predictions, which I think is a good thing for now. I'm getting more confident that the S&P will now just crawl along the upper keltner band as it likes to do once it makes contact with it...and it just got there today like a magnet (3rd chart: // www.TTheory.com Public Chart List // - Paula M Burke - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com ) That might continue until it reaches about 2200 in mid-December. Then that should be it for this short-covering rally, then "they" can nestle it down to a year-end close at 2135 per Craig Johnson's prediction.

    A small sideways wave 4 triangle will interrupt the climb soon, but with only one more IFT I won't worry about it since by the end of the month the market ought to be higher than it is now. That's my 2 cents anyway.

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  19. #970

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hi Airlift. Yes, I was using DWCPF, and should have been more specific. I am hopeful that is the way it turns out given what I perceive as momentum. Fingers crossed.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  21. #971

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Hi Airlift. Yes, I was using DWCPF, and should have been more specific. I am hopeful that is the way it turns out given what I perceive as momentum. Fingers crossed.

    FS
    FogSailing, I'm with you. The angst is here, knowing that the market is overextended and could surprise us to the downside at any moment that the Big Boyz decide to make a profit. Seasonality is good, liquidity is good, so we trust that any drop might be shallow. Yes, fingers crossed.

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  23. #972

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    TS: My apologies for hijacking your thread BUT want to finish discussion with Airlift...

    Airlift: This is a site that Tom recommended some time ago and that I use daily. Just wanted you to be aware of where my information comes from most of the time..

    An interesting comment I saw last evening on another Forum: Excellent…we continue to defy gravity and climb the wall of worry..the bull just keeps on giving against disbelievers.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/%5EG...EDWCPF,EFA,AGG

    There..Done..Thanks TS.

    FS
    Last edited by FogSailing; 11-04-2015 at 07:51 AM.
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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