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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #925

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks for all the research and info Tsunami. It's all very interesting and useful as I plan my strategy to dig out of this negative hole I've created in 2015.

    As for the recent Lunar Green period, if my calculations are correct, the C Fund gained 7.31% and the S Fund gained 6.80%. Those are some fantastic numbers. Just wish I would have had enough confidence to invest 100% and stay in for the duration. But hey, I'm happy with the gain I made.

    Going forward, I am currently in the G Fund with one IFT left for October. I though about getting into the F Fund since we are now in the Lunar Red Period, but AGG is at the upper bollenger band so I won't be doing that. On Friday, I'll be leaving for a trip and will be out of pocket with no access to a computer until 2 November. With that said, I'm hoping for a big drop this week and a dead cat bounce, but if it doesn't happen, I'm ok with riding it out in the G Fund.

    Of course, I do not expect Lunatics system to get these kind of results all the time, (as he says, he's only 60% confident in it) but to date, it has been interesting.
    Take care my friend and keep up the great posts.
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  3. #926

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    RF - Yep, that lunatic system has been ridiculously good this year. I recently worked on a new modification to my strategy, and with that tweak the average return from 2004 through 10/16/15 is a ridiculous 16.8%! And this year, through 10/16/15...it's over 26%!!...that would be #1 in the tracker!!! With my modified system you simply use the S&P500 seasonal chart for the last 30 years which shows an average peak in early June, and an average low in late October, this one: S&P 500 :: SeasonalCharts.de ....and in those summer/fall months you go with the strict lunar system, and in the other months you stay in stocks 100% the entire time, but make just a few switches due to seasonal tendencies of the three stock funds (e.g., in late November go from C to S, then back to C in early March per the Russell 2000 seasonality here: Equity Clock » Seasonality then in April I use the I fund since it's seasonally strong in April for whatever reason, then go back to C on 5/1)....I back-tested that strategy all the way back to 2004 and got those results above (over 16.8%/year). Once I'm comfortable we're through this bear market my plan is to use this system I've developed. It's so easy and "elegant", and with the lunatic software I can even put all the future IFT dates on a spreadsheet going out to the year 2100 for my wife and offspring to follow if they choose to. You could also use this system with ETFs outside of the TSP, like SPY, VXF, EFA and AGG, but wouldn't do quite as well due to trading fees.

    One new chart for today besides the one I posted on DBA's thread. This one appears better at picking bottoms than tops since after the indicator rolls over at peaks the market can drift higher for a few days, even weeks. It looks like the October rally is running out of steam right here to me though, and that matches the lunar red phase pull on stocks that starts today.

    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

    Oh, and this is off topic but important news. Depressing news about COLA's for retirees. I actually emailed Mike Causey way back in March that I thought this is how it would work if we ended up with deflation this year. He replied that he thought I was wrong but would check into it...turns out I was right, not that I'm happy about it...
    Retirees in the hole, COLA-wise - FederalNewsRadio.com
    Last edited by Tsunami; 10-19-2015 at 12:59 PM. Reason: Added COLA news

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  5. #927

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    TS: Like the NEW "Cougar" moniker...

    Maybe jpcavin should adopt that moniker!!!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


  6.  
  7. #928

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    TS: Like the NEW "Cougar" moniker...

    Maybe jpcavin should adopt that moniker!!!

    FS
    Thanks, it's a reference to Mike Leach and his "pirate" and "Swing the Sword" stories. Here's a sample from his book:
    Mike Leach's 'Swing Your Sword': A Resource For The Curious Fan - CougCenter

    The Cougs sure swung the sword a bit against Oregon State Saturday...man, six TD passes in the first half alone?! Now there's even chatter that ESPN Game Day might come to Pullman on Halloween for the Stanford game if they can first manage to upset Arizona in the Tucson heat this week.

    Looks like "they" are determined to fill the August 20th gap on the S&P 500 at 2035.73....43 minutes left to get 'er done.

  8.  
  9. #929

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    TS: Like the NEW "Cougar" moniker...

    Maybe jpcavin should adopt that moniker!!!

    FS
    That looks like a mean cougar. I'm a pussycat.

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  11. #930

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    TS: Best of luck to the Cougs.

    JPC: I don't think it looks like a mean Cougar...just a flag waving Cougar with attitude.

    I think Arizona is going to be a tough opponent though...but the temps are milder right now...70's and 80's so that may benefit WSU.

    Was surprised to see the S&P finish in the plus column today but expect to see the slide down real soon...maybe tomorrow. I view it as sucker money. They're making it very enticing to want to be in but the technicals say we're headed south.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  13. #931

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post

    The technicals say we're headed south.
    Oh, ye of little faith.

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  15. #932

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Looks to me like this morning's pop completed a perfect conclusion to the October rally, got the gap fill at 2035 and trend lines are starting to break.

    Now it's time to see how much fear can come back into the market. The VIX is showing two short-term wedges that are ready to break out to the upside...

    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

    Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

    Danny warns that it can't last forever, but his lunatic system has been ridiculously good this year. The new red phase lasts until 10/30, right after the next Fed meeting...
    https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/...s-performance/

    Lastly, Tesla really getting beat up today, down over 10%. If it breaks $180 there's an H&S pattern you can see here (neckline at $180ish) that would target a low down around $70 next year. Finally a reasonable price to buy TSLA could be coming in 2016. I've always kicked myself for not buying TSLA after it dipped below $20 right after the IPO, I'd planned to buy an even 100 share lot at $19.90 but didn't pull the trigger. Argh...
    TSLA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

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  17. #933

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Dude, can't you be wrong long enough for me to earn my losses back? Ah heck, I shoulda just listened to ya!
    Last edited by jpcavin; 10-20-2015 at 02:19 PM.

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  19. #934

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Don't worry, just check my tracker status for proof I will be wrong. The pullback from the 2040 resistance area was very weak, overlapping...it looks corrective....but the reaction to earnings news this evening and in the morning will decide the direction for tomorrow. I'm heading out on a work trip right now and won't even be watching the markets for the next couple of days...probably a good thing since I established a short position today and don't want to be panicked out of it if the market keeps dripping higher tomorrow.

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  21. #935

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Well, this has proved to be the first lunar red phase this year that hasn't worked, but on a similar topic here's some more ghoulish stuff...we have a super moon this week...
    Supermoon Oct. 26-27, 2015: Don't miss the last mega-moon of the year | AL.com

    ...and something I dug up elsewhere...

    "Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let’s simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000.”
    “. . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower –waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

    So, according to Mr. Putz, er, Puetz...the market should start crashing right about when the Fed makes their announcement. Hmm, a surprise rate hike? What's a little unnerving to me is that there's a decent chance that the rally from the August low could indeed be capped off with just one more spike higher in the next day or two. So that lines up perfectly.

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  23. #936

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    That's totally crazy...But I like it...

    TS: Do you have the "Dictionary of Arcane Market Lore" hidden around your place somewhere?

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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