RF - Yep, that lunatic system has been ridiculously good this year. I recently worked on a new modification to my strategy, and with that tweak the average return from 2004 through 10/16/15 is a ridiculous 16.8%! And this year, through 10/16/15...it's over 26%!!...that would be #1 in the tracker!!! With my modified system you simply use the S&P500 seasonal chart for the last 30 years which shows an average peak in early June, and an average low in late October, this one: S&P 500 :: SeasonalCharts.de ....and in those summer/fall months you go with the strict lunar system, and in the other months you stay in stocks 100% the entire time, but make just a few switches due to seasonal tendencies of the three stock funds (e.g., in late November go from C to S, then back to C in early March per the Russell 2000 seasonality here: Equity Clock » Seasonality then in April I use the I fund since it's seasonally strong in April for whatever reason, then go back to C on 5/1)....I back-tested that strategy all the way back to 2004 and got those results above (over 16.8%/year). Once I'm comfortable we're through this bear market my plan is to use this system I've developed. It's so easy and "elegant", and with the lunatic software I can even put all the future IFT dates on a spreadsheet going out to the year 2100 for my wife and offspring to follow if they choose to. You could also use this system with ETFs outside of the TSP, like SPY, VXF, EFA and AGG, but wouldn't do quite as well due to trading fees.
One new chart for today besides the one I posted on DBA's thread. This one appears better at picking bottoms than tops since after the indicator rolls over at peaks the market can drift higher for a few days, even weeks. It looks like the October rally is running out of steam right here to me though, and that matches the lunar red phase pull on stocks that starts today.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Oh, and this is off topic but important news. Depressing news about COLA's for retirees. I actually emailed Mike Causey way back in March that I thought this is how it would work if we ended up with deflation this year. He replied that he thought I was wrong but would check into it...turns out I was right, not that I'm happy about it...
Retirees in the hole, COLA-wise - FederalNewsRadio.com
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