Page 72 of 124 FirstFirst ... 2262707172737482122 ... LastLast
Results 853 to 864 of 1487

Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #853

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    2,915

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Sounds beautiful. Glad you are having a wonderful time. Regarding the markets, the question becomes "Does it break down to the lower low at 1955-1960, or does it continue upward to the 2000-2024 range.?" I'll have to keep a close check on MACD and RSI. My guess is that lots of buyers get in and then the bears short the market. They've done it a few times successfully since Aug 20....but that's just a guess. On the sidelines till Oct. All the best to you in your investing.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  2.  
  3. #854

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The High Desert
    Posts
    1,083

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Sounds beautiful. Glad you are having a wonderful time. Regarding the markets, the question becomes "Does it break down to the lower low at 1955-1960, or does it continue upward to the 2000-2024 range.?" I'll have to keep a close check on MACD and RSI. My guess is that lots of buyers get in and then the bears short the market. They've done it a few times successfully since Aug 20....but that's just a guess. On the sidelines till Oct. All the best to you in your investing.

    FS
    Back from Pikes Peak already. A balmy 44 degrees and clear skies up there at noon today.

    Boy this market is weak, the fact that all the index's can manage are ~38% rallies reveals that. From today's peak I already see a clear wave 1 down and 2 up into the close, which is a perfect setup for a big gap down Monday as wave 3 hits hard. It looks like the bottom won't come on 9/30 after all, it will be in early October instead. I'll be looking to jump in somewhere in the low 1800s for a 5% or so wave rally, then comes an even worse drop later in October. This market is moving so fast I wonder if the entire bear market could be over by Thanksgiving. Maybe the target for the next week or so is the upper 1700s per Springheel Jack:
    Channels and Patterns

  4.  
  5. #855

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    2,915

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    5% Rally...That has the same tasty flavor as Lindt chocolate, or Bailey's on ice..or filet mignon...

    Cant' wait!!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


  6.  
  7. #856

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Back from Pikes Peak already. A balmy 44 degrees and clear skies up there at noon today.

    Boy this market is weak, the fact that all the index's can manage are ~38% rallies reveals that. From today's peak I already see a clear wave 1 down and 2 up into the close, which is a perfect setup for a big gap down Monday as wave 3 hits hard. It looks like the bottom won't come on 9/30 after all, it will be in early October instead. I'll be looking to jump in somewhere in the low 1800s for a 5% or so wave rally, then comes an even worse drop later in October. This market is moving so fast I wonder if the entire bear market could be over by Thanksgiving. Maybe the target for the next week or so is the upper 1700s per Springheel Jack:
    Channels and Patterns
    Can someone help me to better understand what is in stock for Monday morning through the daily performance, in terms of the scenario given by Springheel Jack? I will appreciate it. Thanks!
    Last edited by airlift; 09-26-2015 at 05:23 PM. Reason: clarity

  8.  
  9. #857

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The High Desert
    Posts
    1,083

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Airlift,

    Here's my take. Springheel Jack has been calling for a lower low below 1867 for several weeks, and that's about all I can say about him. Otherwise, by my eye the Elliott waves are aligned for the middle of a wave 3 down to occur starting Monday.

    As for how far it could go, look at chart #53 here: Above the Green Line - Sep 26, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com The following assumes the bearish case and the rally from 8/24 ended right after the Fed announcement on 9/24 at 2020...

    From there, wave 1 down was from the peak on Thursday 9/17 at 2020.86 down to 1908.92 on Thursday the 24th. So it was 111.94 points in five days.

    Wave 2 up lasted only one day (which surprised me, three days would be typical like FireWeatherMet was expecting as well, but this bear market has been moving at lightning speed and that's a lesson to learn here; bounces are going to be very hard to catch except for the larger rallies like the one I'm waiting for at some point in October), from 1908.92 up to 1952.89, or 43.97 points, which was 43.97/111.94 = 39.3%, very close to a typical (but very weak for a wave 2) Fibonacci 38.2% rally. It's possible Monday could be another leg up so the rally gets to a more typical 50% or 61.8%, but with the full moon tomorrow my hunch is there will be a gap down... and since late Friday there was already a 5-wave drop and then a quick rally into the close, I think that was already wave's 1 and 2 of wave 3 down, and Monday will bring wave 3 of 3 down, the big Kahuna.

    Wave 3's are typically 1.618 times the size of wave 1 (but could extend much further if panic sets in, e.g., 2.618 times wave 1) so for the entire wave 3 down I'd expect 111.94 x 1.618 = 181.12 points.
    So I'm looking to sell my short positions (SQQQ in my Roth IRA and a load of QQQ puts in my trading account) when the S&P 500 approaches 1952.89 - 181.12 = 1771.71.
    Hmm, that's quite a bit lower than the guru's like Springheel Jack are expecting, so unless it looks extremely ugly I won't be that greedy and will start watching closely as soon as 1867 is reached. As for how long it takes...the wave 1 down was 5 days...so maybe 5 to 8 days to get there?...unless it gets to be another all-out panic plunge like we had in August, then wave 3, 4 and 5 could finish in a few days. After wave 3 down (to 1771?) there will still be waves 4 and 5 to get through, so the final low for this larger wave that started on 9/17 at 2020 could be around mid-October? That would fight the positive/green lunar period that starts on 10/1 though, so this whole prediction could be wrong and instead it continues to bounce around like in 2011...that's what a lot of pros are saying, but they tend to think that what will happen now will be a repeat of the last pattern they pick out, and everyone is picking out 2011...therefore I think there's very little chance of 2011 repeating or even rhyming here, and instead things will surprise to the downside.

    I'm hoping to grab 5% or so on the rally this fall, and then deftly jump back to G to avoid the even worse wave 3 down that comes next. I'm not sure how this whole thing will extend clear out to April of 2016 per some gurus (e.g., Tom McClellen and David Petch) since things are happening so rapidly, but time will tell.
    The Most Important Update Ever | David Petch | Safehaven.com

    If it pans out anything close to that I'll be amazed since Elliott waves are pretty much impossible to get right, but very fun to try.

    Colorado was great, we caught the Fall color perfectly...now I need another vacation LOL...or better yet I need to get rich trading these sharp market moves and retire at the end of 2017 if not sooner.

  10.  
  11. #858

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The High Desert
    Posts
    1,083

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    A follow-up to that...I see per Jack's last couple of post's that he suggests the next low could come at the bottom of this channel:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/...20Patterns.png
    If so that would be around the mid-1700's in the next week or two. Yikes.
    And looking further ahead I calculate the entire bear market would bottom around 1400 or a bit lower, around a 35% drop. That's not unusual for a bear market so it can't be dismissed.

    Hmm, and when could that 1400 be reached? If the channel continues...it looks to be dropping about 80 points per month....so is around 1760 now...and would reach 1400 around early- or mid-Feb next year. That's not too far off from McClellan's prediction of early April for the bottom...which leaves room for that channel to go even lower, like the upper 1200s.
    Last edited by Tsunami; 09-26-2015 at 08:37 PM.

  12.  
  13. #859

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    A follow-up to that...I see per Jack's last couple of post's that he suggests the next low could come at the bottom of this channel:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/...20Patterns.png
    If so that would be around the mid-1700's in the next week or two. Yikes.
    And looking further ahead I calculate the entire bear market would bottom around 1400 or a bit lower, around a 35% drop. That's not unusual for a bear market so it can't be dismissed.

    Hmm, and when could that 1400 be reached? If the channel continues...it looks to be dropping about 80 points per month....so is around 1760 now...and would reach 1400 around early- or mid-Feb next year. That's not too far off from McClellan's prediction of early April for the bottom...which leaves room for that channel to go even lower, like the upper 1200s.
    Tsunami, I'm glad you are back after a great vacation. However, no matter how strongly you wish it, I don't think you'll get another vacation to recover from this last one, any time soon....

    For me your detailed explanation is very, very good, and I still have lots to learn ... Lots to learn! Assuming the waves do as you explained, this drop would be extraordinarily low. So, if there is a gap-down on Monday, I guess it is best to sell everything to the G or F funds and wait for this to pan out. I would have thought that 1867 would be a good place to buy, but now it becomes quite scary. Please stay abreast of the situation and post you opinion on the go asap. Tia.
    Last edited by airlift; 09-26-2015 at 10:45 PM. Reason: Clarity

  14.  
  15. #860

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    2,915

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Super recap of the Elliott Wave situation. Like you said, it could play out differently but your summary is very close to what a lot of EW followers are thinking. Tsunami: By chance do you follow Trader Joe (Study of Cycles) HOME who routinely posts on Tony Caldero's page? I find his analysis extremely well thought out and I appreciate that he tries to lay out the alternative scenarios for EW activity.

    All the best to you in your investing?

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  16.  
  17. #861

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    there is also the 7 years cycle lol so many coincidence.

  18.  
  19. #862

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The High Desert
    Posts
    1,083

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Airlift - Thanks

    FS - No I don't follow "Trader Joe" at that site but used to watch his videos and still have it bookmarked. I found him to be too inaccurate and stopped paying attention. Most Elliott wave guys seem to have a bearish bias all the time (e.g., Daneric, and the guys at elliottwave.com and other bearish gurus that I used to subscribe to (Prechter and Steven Hochberg, and Robert McHugh, and Tim Wood). I subscribed to those latter three for a long time and boy did they cost me tons of money with their constant bearish views. Having said that, I think during bear markets they're worth paying attention too, so I'll give that post by McHugh that MrJohnRoss a read today as I watch my Seahawks tear up the Bears (I hope). I know that Tim Wood says his "DNA markers" are now in place for a major crash, and McHugh has been big on that megaphone pattern, which is quite scary and I'm not ready to believe it will happen yet (e.g., a plunge clear down to well below the 2009 low of 666), but I'm not dismissing it entirely since it's conceivable this bear market could snowball into an out of control unraveling of government debt worldwide.

    Law87 - Yep, and that 7-year cycle is probably the #1 reason I'm convinced this is indeed a bear market and not something that will rhyme with 2011 as the wall street pros who need to sell stocks would have us believe. I used to post about the late Terry Laundry a few years ago before his untimely passing in July 2012. Just before he passed, he began warning of an eventual major top around (gulp) mid-2015 and then a massive plunge to a low around April 2016 in what he dubbed his "M" cycle low, which was basically a 76 week cycle and a 7-year cycle combined, with the biggest drops coming at the confluence of a 76-week cycle and the 7-year cycle... he also combined that with what a friend of his (Edson Gould) called the megaphone formation. He's the one that first coined it back in the 60's and you can Google "Edson Gould megaphone formation" and find a few links about it. Basically it's the what McHugh is warning of, and here's a little more discussion of it from a former subscriber of Terry Laundry (Bob Carver):
    Stock Market Update the 2nd and 3rd charts there show it as it looked a few years ago.

    The Dow hit the top of the pattern perfectly this year. So here we are more than 3 years after Laundry's death, and the market is still following what he predicted it would do 3 years later. He was predicting that his cycles and the Edson Gould formation would merge to create a huge drop in late 2015 and 2016, bottoming around April 2016...so when McClellen and others (David Petch) more recently came up with that same date a few years later it's made me pay attention big time.

    Eerie and scary if it comes to fruition.

  20.  
  21. #863

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    2,915

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks for the heads up on "bearish" bias. I hadn't recognized that yet, probably because I've only been following him recently and the market has been "bearish". Hope the Hawks won today. We've had party guests who just left and I haven't caught on sports.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  22.  
  23. #864

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Thanks for the heads up on "bearish" bias. I hadn't recognized that yet, probably because I've only been following him recently and the market has been "bearish". Hope the Hawks won today. We've had party guests who just left and I haven't caught on sports.

    FS
    they did. at least you got your priorities straight and checked up here before nfl.com.
    100g


  24.  
Page 72 of 124 FirstFirst ... 2262707172737482122 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)