Page 3 of 163 FirstFirst 123451353103 ... LastLast
Results 25 to 36 of 1946

Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #25

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Airlift,

    I'm a believer in peak oil. I'm an enginner in DOE, and really wish DOE would find ways to focus more of it's research dollars on the energy situation. We need to get off of using oil for ground transportation and save what's left for future generation's use in air and water transportation, and for use in consumer products such as plastics. Matt Simmons http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/resear...ype=msspeeches (also frequently interviewed on financialsense.com) is the top expert on the peak oil situation and he's been pounding the drum for years trying to point out the urgency of the situation. He's leading a big project in Maine for offshore wind energy, and more excitingly a project to use liquid ammonia as fuel in vehicles. He's a smart guy and seems to think that is the solution, so I'd like to learn more about that.

    When Mexico stops exporting oil to the U.S. in a couple years and oil shoots up to $200 and higher, the panic will really get going. I wish it didn't take a situation like that to kick the necessary innovations into high gear, but that's the way the world works.

    On a completely different subject, Dow 1,000? I haven't read this yet but it was recommended by Casey Research today in my daily missive from them: http://longwavegroup.com/publication...22_Dow1000.pdf

  2.  
  3. #26

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,430
    Blog Entries
    297

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm a peak oil fellow myself and making preparations where I can. I hope to give my next house off the grid capability.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  4.  
  5. #27

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Airlift,

    I'm a believer in peak oil. I'm an enginner in DOE, and really wish DOE would find ways to focus more of it's research dollars on the energy situation. We need to get off of using oil for ground transportation and save what's left for future generation's use in air and water transportation, and for use in consumer products such as plastics. Matt Simmons http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/resear...ype=msspeeches (also frequently interviewed on financialsense.com) is the top expert on the peak oil situation and he's been pounding the drum for years trying to point out the urgency of the situation. He's leading a big project in Maine for offshore wind energy, and more excitingly a project to use liquid ammonia as fuel in vehicles. He's a smart guy and seems to think that is the solution, so I'd like to learn more about that.

    When Mexico stops exporting oil to the U.S. in a couple years and oil shoots up to $200 and higher, the panic will really get going. I wish it didn't take a situation like that to kick the necessary innovations into high gear, but that's the way the world works.

    On a completely different subject, Dow 1,000? I haven't read this yet but it was recommended by Casey Research today in my daily missive from them: http://longwavegroup.com/publication...22_Dow1000.pdf
    Tsunami,

    Thank you for the very useful information!


  6.  
  7. #28

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    A great week to start the year. I love seeing all the fear evident in news articles, CNBC guests, and even posts on this board. It tells me the markets have higher to go. More bears need to give up before we reach the top.

    As for the dollar, one cycles newsletter guy says this little correction down probably bottomed on Tuesday, but my Elliott wave eye is telling me it needs a wave C down to touch the 50dma somewhere below 77 before it's done with the downward correction. If so, that will give a tailwind to stocks and commodities up to my anticipated first peak of the year around 1/21/10. A steady flow of good earnings reports should help fight the overbought condition as well. My S&P target rises a point or two every day, and looks to be zeroing in on a January peak in the 1160's, and could spike higher. That's where I'll take a break on the beach for a few weeks.

    This is interesting, is the dollar being setup for the next takedown? http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...72&tof=6&frt=2


  8.  
  9. #29

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,876
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I agree about the dollar only because of the current open longs from speculators.

    As for the market, who's bearish besides the guys who always are?

    Attachment 7913

    sentimentrader.com

  10.  
  11. #30

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,794
    Blog Entries
    1229

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    I agree about the dollar only because of the current open longs from speculators.

    As for the market, who's bearish besides the guys who always are?

    Attachment 7913

    sentimentrader.com
    Exactly.

  12.  
  13. #31

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Just some Friday Funnies...






    ROMANCE MATHEMATICS
    Smart man + smart woman = romance
    Smart man + dumb woman = affair
    Dumb man + smart woman = marriage
    Dumb man + dumb woman = pregnancy
    OFFICE ARITHMETIC
    Smart boss + smart employee = profit
    Smart boss + dumb employee = production
    Dumb boss + smart employee = promotion
    Dumb boss + dumb employee = overtime
    SHOPPING MATH
    A man will pay $2 for a $1 item he needs.
    A woman will pay $1 for a $2 item that she doesn't need.
    GENERAL EQUATIONS & STATISTICS
    A woman worries about the future until she gets a husband.
    A man never worries about the future until he gets a wife.
    A successful man is one who makes more money than his wife can spend.
    A successful woman is one who can find such a man.
    HAPPINESS
    To be happy with a man, you must understand him a lot and love him a little.
    To be happy with a woman, you must love her a lot and not try to understand her at all.
    LONGEVITY
    Married men live longer than single men do, but married men are a lot more willing to die.
    PROPENSITY TO CHANGE
    A woman marries a man expecting he will change, but he doesn't.
    A man marries a woman expecting that she won't change, and she does.
    DISCUSSION TECHNIQUE
    A woman has the last word in any argument.
    Anything a man says after that is the beginning of a new argument.




  14.  
  15. #32

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Good stuff!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  16.  
  17. #33

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Puplava's 2010 forecast's begin this week in his podcasts:

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php

  18.  
  19. #34

    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Fulton, TX USA
    Posts
    2,336

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Just some Friday Funnies...
    yes! - fun-nee !!! -probably because a lot of truth in some of them !!!

  20.  
  21. #35

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I have a question to pose for anyone who wants to put in their 2 cents. In addition to the Treasury swiping retirement accounts in an attempt to avoid drowning in the coming tsunami (brought up this morning by Coolhand in his thread), one of my fears is that the government could resort to an overnight devaluation of the dollar if they can't get inflation high enough to eat up it's debt. This should be at least a year away if it happens at all, but it's something that historically has been done numerous times in the final desparate stages of trying to save fiat currencies, including several times by Argentina.

    My question is, regarding our TSP accounts, which fund do you think would be the best one to be in in the case we wake up one Monday morning and hear that the dollar has been devaluated 50% or whatever? This would equate to an instant overnight 100% inflation. Prices of all goods would have to be marked up 100% that morning. Salaries would double. Debts would stay the same however, so your mortgage and other loan payments would effectively drop by half . As for savings, obviously hard paper cash and bank savings accounts would be the worst thing to own, since the value of cash would drop 50% , but what about the various TSP funds ? Gold would double, but the devaluation could be preceded by Uncle Sam repeating it's 1930's trick of taking everyone's gold prior to the devaluation (I think unlikely since it would be so impractical in today's world, but who knows, it's one argument why some people say to buy silver, not gold). Would the I fund be the best since the value of foreign stocks would effectively double overnight? Would the G and F fund's value be protected or would government securities and bonds behave like cash? This issue confuses me. The only thing that makes my head hurt more is thinking about the universe having no end , but it's important and I'd like to know the answer in advance if things get out of hand.

    If the answer to the question is that the stock funds would fair better in an overnight devaluation than the G/F funds, then that presents another problem, since the stock markets could be plummeting at the time this happens and most people will be parked in the G/F funds for "safety".

    So, if anyone replies, which fund you think would be the one to be in, and explain why.

    Thanks!

  22.  
  23. #36

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    In theory the I-fund would do well - that's assuming the currencies of the EAFE countries don't also plummet. I would think bond yields would also plummet so the F-fund might be "more safe".

    That's just theory and "if" this did happen, it might be moot if chaos ensues, in which case food storage and ammunition might be your best investment.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


  24.  
Page 3 of 163 FirstFirst 123451353103 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Tsunami's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes