Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Next time you go to Victoria, stay at Point No Point resort in Sooke. gorgeous place...there's a nice English style pub nearby for that beer. http://www.pointnopointresort.com/cabins.html That photo on the left with the jacuzzi overlooking the Juan de Fuca strait looks like the unit we stayed in.

Looks like that wedge is broken with gusto this morning. Everyone expecting a final run to 1140 or 1150 may be about to get burned. If T-Theory is correct, the initial fall won't end until as late as early December.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Next time you go to Victoria, stay at Point No Point resort in Sooke. gorgeous place...there's a nice English style pub nearby for that beer. http://www.pointnopointresort.com/cabins.html That photo on the left with the jacuzzi overlooking the Juan de Fuca strait looks like the unit we stayed in.

Looks like that wedge is broken with gusto this morning. Everyone expecting a final run to 1140 or 1150 may be about to get burned. If T-Theory is correct, the initial fall won't end until as late as early December.

Yea, the market's looking ugly...

Those cabins look awesome. The Puget Sound area is one of my favorite places.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

... There will be the dreaded "Hindenburg Omen" in August as the distribution intensifies at the top....

Back on March 5th I pointed out that I expected to see a Hindenburg Omen in August at the top. Yesterday we nearly got the first one since 2007, or at least close enough for government work. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...html?mod=mdc_t Yesterday's data shows 105 new higs and 67 new lows, 70 was needed to reach the 2.2% criteria. It takes a second day like that to "confirm" the signal. All the other criteria were met. Just another sign that we're at a major top. Since the April 26th top there have now been twelve 90% down days and ten 90% up days, another unhealthy sign.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_omen

Just another confirmation of why I've been riding out this market on the sidelines in G and F

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Back on March 5th I pointed out that I expected to see a Hindenburg Omen in August at the top. Yesterday we nearly got the first one since 2007, or at least close enough for government work. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...html?mod=mdc_t Yesterday's data shows 105 new higs and 67 new lows, 70 was needed to reach the 2.2% criteria. It takes a second day like that to "confirm" the signal. All the other criteria were met. Just another sign that we're at a major top. Since the April 26th top there have now been twelve 90% down days and ten 90% up days, another unhealthy sign.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_omen

Tsunami, so you know, the people over on Ticker-forum, including KD, are considering today to be the Hindy confirmation of the "close-enough" Hindy yesterday. I intend to respect their opinion. last one I remember being talked about was when I totally new to learning about them and it didn't sink in. this time it is. glad I'm out in G and F.

From wiki:

"One off Hindenburg Omen signals are always considered unconfirmed as the indicator has a high false alarm rate. A train of 3 to 5 coupled Hindenburg Omens are preferred by analysts wherever possible."

"must be triggered 3 times in a row within a month from the 1st triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid"

With this in mind, you have one "close" signal and whatever today produces. It's a start, I'll give you that. Let's keep this thread updated, may be big stuff here.

Bob McHugh is the HO guru and I'm a subscriber to him. He said Yahoo and other sources incorrectly said yesterday that we got one, but it takes a second one to confirm the signal, and yesterday's was borderline. The second one needs to come with 36 days of the first one for a confirmation, they don't have to be consecutive. Today's data isn't out yet but it might be close to the second confirming one.

Regardless, I think we've topped in wave 2 and are heading down in wave 3 now.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Bob McHugh is the HO guru and I'm a subscriber to him. He said Yahoo and other sources incorrectly said yesterday that we got one, but it takes a second one to confirm the signal, and yesterday's was borderline. The second one needs to come with 36 days of the first one for a confirmation, they don't have to be consecutive. Today's data isn't out yet but it might be close to the second confirming one.

Regardless, I think we've topped in wave 2 and are heading down in wave 3 now.

Thanks, I do appreciate the updates.

I believe Bobby is a permabear and always will be a permabear. Does he still talk about his mega phone concept?

So no more trying to figure out when the Omen is upon us via open source. We have an insider!

The Hindenburg Thread: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread...ght=hindenburg

I'm not being a smartass, just asking. I'm mindful of the smartass remark I've heard where someone says another "has predicted 20 of the last 5 recessions" or some such remark. Despite the stomach turning name of this "Omen" market event, could that ratio be applicable here?