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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1825

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Wow, the lowest % bulls reading since 1992!

    https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/st...DaNBNAHWQK7K3A
    Putting that AAII report in perspective, as discussed on CNBC today it's pretty much garbage...

    https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/st...45182934704129
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  3. #1826

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    My biggest takeaway from NAAIM is that the "pros" are just as clueless as the rest of us. A reading of below 30 marked the March 2020 low. We had a reading of 30 a few weeks ago. Like every other sentiment indicator, whenever too many people are on the starboard side of the boat, it's time to move to the port side. If you wait for that indicator to show a "bullish" reading, then you're too late.

    The lowest bullish count since 1992 has to count for something, but memories of 2008 where we started getting very contrarian positive sentiment readings in October, only to be completely washed out after the bounce for the next six months.

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  5. #1827

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    2022 is the 13th year since 1950ish (not sure how far this data goes back) that the market was down 5% or more through April.
    Here's what happened going forward the last 12 times. More red than white until you get to 12 months out. The odds favor lower lows in Sept/Oct of this year.
    https://twitter.com/SJD10304/status/...797121/photo/1

    Hussman's latest is as bleak as ever.
    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220429/

    I'm staying in scalping mode for now, but am not sure if the best opportunity to try to catch the knife in May will be as soon as Monday/Tuesday, or late in May.
    My Peter Eliades price projection software suggests SPX could bounce as high as the 4400s in the next two weeks, but the target can't be known until it hits bottom and turns up strongly.
    One important thing though is that all current downside projections were satisfied on Friday, but those projection boxes allow for deeper drops.
    An example, this projection allows for an intraday drop to as low as 3872. But the top of the box has already been reached, so it doesn't have to go even one point lower.
    If a rally carries up and through the red/blue offset lines, that would project a continued rally up to near all-time highs.
    So that's why I say (for now) that I think a rally will be limited to the 4400s max...assuming this bear market isn't over.

    Screenshot 2022-05-01 101916.jpg
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern


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  7. #1828

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Just for the record, yesterday I panicked and put in an IFT to move to G, but apparently it was another case where I screwed up and didn't hit the Submit button as the last step.
    I just checked my account and I'm still 100% C fund, and there's no pending IFT to G.
    What a stroke of luck that I was such a bonehead...assuming today's entire gain isn't lost on Monday, which is possible (https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/st...37966426779648).
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  9. #1829

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Not to panic you, but that is assuming we can still make an IFT on Monday, May 16th. The FRTIB has been very vague on what will happen on the 16th and the 26th.
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #1830

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Not to panic you, but that is assuming we can still make an IFT on Monday, May 16th. The FRTIB has been very vague on what will happen on the 16th and the 26th.
    They've been consistently saying noon on the 26th, so I'm holding them to that.
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  13. #1831

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    They've been consistently saying noon on the 26th, so I'm holding them to that.
    Realistically the system should be down from Friday the 27th at noon and up and running by 9:30am Tuesday the 31st. That doesn't put any of our accounts in jeopardy.
    May the force be with us.

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  15. #1832

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    They've been consistently saying noon on the 26th, so I'm holding them to that.
    Who is saying that - the 26th? That is what I was assuming but I am hearing something different every day, and that's from people who have talked to TSP reps. The website seems to be purposely vague.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #1833

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hi Tom, must drill down to the detail.

    https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features...d1#Investments
    Please don't take comments as trading advice /IFTs: 4-26-22=100G /Prior: 4-13-22= G30-F20-S25-C25/ https://www.theepochtimes.com// Permalink charts-see post#4264@pg356

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