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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1789

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Like some others I moved 100% S today, knowing that pretty much every guru I follow is predicting a pullback in the short term.
    In any case, IWM is finally breaking above the sideways channel it's been in all year. Chart #79 shows it well. https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/7
    Looks like it's already breaking above the trend line if you connect the two highs for the year. It appears that small cap seasonality might be starting early this year.

    I'm only hoping for 2% conservatively by Christmas, which would put me over 16%, double my annual goal...but wouldn't be surprised with much more if the mass hysteria can continue into 2023. Maybe as much as 8% for the S fund.
    This sure feels/looks a lot like late 1999 to me. Normal TA and wave patterns are out the window when there's minimal fear of a decline.

    Uh, yeah, this is a great time to go all in LOL....
    https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status...79661378531342
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  3. #1790

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Ira mentioned a few times that the Christmas rally will be early this yr and starting in Nov.
    "Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798

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  5. #1791

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Martin Pring is among the best technicians I'd say, seems like the S fund is a no brainer right now...

    https://twitter.com/martin_pring/sta...553154/photo/1
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern


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  7. #1792

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm confused.
    At this instant, U.S. midcaps (MDY) are up 0.83%, small caps (IWM) are up 0.63%, and even microcaps (IWC) are up about the same, +0.62%.
    But DWCPF is at negative -0.35%.
    Huh? What else is in the the S fund that could cause such a huge discrepancy?
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  9. #1793

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I just looked up the components of the S fund, and from the Factsheet on this page...
    https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/in...ndex/#overview
    ...many of the top holdings are getting absolutely crushed, and the charts look terrible to me, especially SNOW which appears to be peaking.

    I hate locking in a loss for this trade, and I hate going against seasonality, but I've moved to C since I feel more confident it should have at last some small additional gains by year-end.

    Edit...really don't like what I'm seeing, moved to G.
    Last edited by Tsunami; 11-22-2021 at 11:56 AM.
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  11. #1794

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Great info. Thank you Tsunami!
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 1/11/22=S35-C35-I20-G-10 // 12-14-21=G100%/ 12-1-21= S60-C15-G25// CandlesDef-see#3584, seasonality-see#3613

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  13. #1795

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Snow is still falling, and Zoom is still zooming (down)...

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZM...d=p34015295248

    Thus the S fund is getting crushed by the overvalued tech stocks that comprise its top holdings.

    If Slim is right I'd look for a wave B bounce to start soon, but then I think we'll see another decline (wave C) into early to mid-December.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPZ7zND9OTY

    Glad I got out. I see that Hussman and Peter Eliades are crying wolf again. One of these times they'll be right, but for now I'm expecting the bull to resume and possibly get as high as David Hunter's 5300 target by May.
    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/ (wow, the most warnings in history!)
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmu...z_X-z4FzNkJ5rg

    I have Eliades software and IWM currently has a projection down to 223.79 on an hourly chart. Looks like filling the gap from mid-October about $1 lower than that would be a good target.
    So that's a target for me to possibly move back in. VXF has a projection down to 183.23, about 3% lower, not the end of the world (yet).
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  15. #1796

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Like Exnavyew and others I reeeeeeeally wanted to get in yesterday, but couldn't since I'd spent my 2 IFTs for November.
    I really wish the TSP would allow additional IFTs for a commission/fee, if it's really true that IFTs cost them money (which I doubt since it has to be all automated).
    Not having an IFT will cost me over $10K today. Argh. But at least there's a good chance that I'll get back in well below where I got out on 11/22.

    Anyway, my guess is today is a wave 1 of 1 up of the new rally that will extend into January, and tomorrow will bring a wave 2 down of this wave 1 up. So I'm holding off on getting in until tomorrow.
    My target for today's wave 1 top is 4641 ES futures, which will be somewhere in the upper 4640s for SPX, near the trend line on Chart 52:
    https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5
    I loaded up on SPY and IWM calls right at the close yesterday in my Roth IRA, so at least I've got that going today. I plan to sell when ES hits 4640.

    Tomorrow's dip will be blamed on fear of the budget deadline and the November jobs report coming out on Friday.
    That's my story and I'm sticking to it LOL, and I hope Santa doesn't get quarantined somewhere this month.
    "The stock market is like a gambling casino where the odds are rigged in favor of the players." - Oskar Morgenstern

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  17. #1797

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Like Exnavyew and others I reeeeeeeally wanted to get in yesterday, but couldn't since I'd spent my 2 IFTs for November.
    I really wish the TSP would allow additional IFTs for a commission/fee, if it's really true that IFTs cost them money (which I doubt since it has to be all automated).
    Not having an IFT will cost me over $10K today. Argh. But at least there's a good chance that I'll get back in well below where I got out on 11/22.
    Don't you hate that? The 1st of the month is usually one of the biggest market moving days yet we're frozen if we used our 2 the prior month. Frustrating!

    A commission for additional moves would be perfect!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #1798

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Don't you hate that? The 1st of the month is usually one of the biggest market moving days yet we're frozen if we used our 2 the prior month. Frustrating!

    A commission for additional moves would be perfect!
    One advantage of being in stocks on the last day of the month is that you have 3 possible IFT's the following month (with the 3rd move to the G fund). Not counting negligible 1% moves of course.

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  21. #1799

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Skorcher View Post
    One advantage of being in stocks on the last day of the month is that you have 3 possible IFT's the following month (with the 3rd move to the G fund). Not counting negligible 1% moves of course.
    Last I knew, the less than 1% moves now count towards your 2 IFT's per month.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Expected retirement date: November 2023

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  23. #1800

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by weatherweenie View Post
    Last I knew, the less than 1% moves now count towards your 2 IFT's per month.

    They do count, but you can continue to make a <1% moves AFTER you've used your allotted IFT's for the month.
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS


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