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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1765

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Argh, for the second time in a year the TSP failed to implement my IFT yesterday. Hopefully the market will continue up Monday (and beyond) and it won't matter, but last time it cost me 1.92% when they failed to implement my IFT into stocks on 4/1/20.
    That was no April Fools joke, and if they hadn't made that mistake a year ago, my 2020 return would have been 20.20% LOL.

    The Twitterverse is awash with gurus predicting an imminent big drop. Maybe that fear will keep it heading higher as they cover their shorts. The S fund is sure not the place to be with rising interest rates though.

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  3. #1766

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Sorry to here that, Tsunami. Did you implement it through the website or by phone? I'm wondering if it's a problem with the new TSP website.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  5. #1767

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Sorry to here that, Tsunami. Did you implement it through the website or by phone? I'm wondering if it's a problem with the new TSP website.
    Through the website....I went ahead and entered a new IFT to move to F today. So it will get done 2 days later than I planned, but hopefully the S fund will eek out a tiny gain today.
    I noticed that my PIP is now 40.25%. Wow that feels good as a retiree, but I'm sure many people have much higher PIPs right now since the comparison is year-over-year since 3/31/20.
    I'm expecting the top won't come until perhaps early May, just being extra careful since there are warning signs and DeMark's 4139 target could get hit today. QQQ and the Dow still have a ways to do though.
    I'm sure now that I'm out the S fund will finally break up from it's bullish wedge tomorrow.

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  7. #1768

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Moving to G today to lock in a small and rare F fund gain. My actual YTD return is 0.26% higher than the autotracker shows due to the issue I had with my last IFT, which worked out in my favor thankfully.

    I think this pullback in stocks could bottom today... but I have no IFT to get in.

    Now it gets interesting. Some gurus expect a melt up to 4600 or higher (e.g., David Hunter), while others say the next rally is the last one before a big drop.

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  9. #1769

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    is there a suggested reason for the projected drop after the next rally?

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  11. #1770

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    is there a suggested reason for the projected drop after the next rally?
    Well, the most extreme market valuations in history is reason enough for me to be careful...
    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210411/

    Some Elliott wave practitioners are saying the final top is coming...
    https://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
    ...but the better wave counters that I trust more don't see a top until another year or two.

    Sven has been warning more and more of the extreme valuations...and that over the last few months a whole series of speculative bubbles have been popping, like EV stocks, pot stocks, penny stocks, small cap stocks, no-income tech stocks in the ARK funds, the Wall Street Boys Gamestop fad stocks, and now possibly bitcoin and other cryptos have just popped. The last dominos will be the major stock index's and now we're seeing divergence in the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line, that's very important... this market is so much like the 2000 dot.com bubble it's eerie, and yet people are in total denial that there could be a problem.
    https://northmantrader.com/2021/04/13/risk-free-3/

    Some gurus like this guy have been zeroing in on May 2021 for a long time now...
    https://twitter.com/masterpandawu
    He sees a series of big drops starting soon.

    A long-term T is ending on 4/28, but that doesn't mean the end of the world, just that a pullback or correction could come in May/June...
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...71&a=833940394

    I have a list of 13 people predicting major tops this spring...some I've posted before like Gunner24.com...the most obscure/weird one to me is this...
    https://thedanielcode.com/articles/speculation.pdf

    Hunter expects a parabolic rise to 4700 soon, then an 80% drop...
    https://palisadesradio.ca/david-hunt...is-in-history/

    Other than that, and a whole lot more, no worries! May is usually a VERY strong month in post-election years.

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  13. #1771

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    so, essentially... as always... prognosticators on both sides and in the middle... it a crap shoot.
    Life is good!

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  15. #1772

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Funny... the list above reminded me of RMI's OCD Chart.
    Life is good!

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  17. #1773

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Had no idea what that was but Googled it and found it from way back in 2012....hmm, don't get me started, my middle name is spreadsheet and this is the sort of thing I'd think of doing LOL...

    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-a...tml#post395517

    This afternoon's sudden Taxageddon panic drop should be near the bottom for this little pullback, I think, but I'll need to update and consult my guru's predictions spreadsheet.


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  19. #1774

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Way back over 11 years ago when I selected "Tsunami" as my ID, this is what I had in mind. It's finally getting near I'm afraid. Our banana republic is in big trouble...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmk75nO67Ko

    Early May or early June look like the best candidates for the top to me.

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  21. #1775

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Way back over 11 years ago when I selected "Tsunami" as my ID, this is what I had in mind. It's finally getting near I'm afraid. Our banana republic is in big trouble...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmk75nO67Ko

    Early May or early June look like the best candidates for the top to me.
    Hard to say, for those who have been conservative have paid a dear price. My philosophy is to be in stocks until I am given a reason not to be in them.

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  23. #1776

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Deflation is definitely the bigger risk than inflation.

    I used to read Charles Hugh Smith after the 2008 crash. His prophecies of collapse in 2012-2014 never panned out, but then again QE3 was launched in 2013. He was calling for a crash during 2020 back in 2011. Below from the archives.

    The real crisis has been pushed forward to 2020-2022. Nonetheless, 2015-2016 will offer those with cash tremendous profit opportunities.
    https://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb11...2016-2-11.html

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