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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1753

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Well done Tsunami! Please PM me your email address to receive your Amazon card!

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Boom! the strong close on Dec. 31 pushed Tsunami into the winner's circle!

    The Dow closed at 30,606

    Incredibly only 19 points off the close. Well done!

    The winner will get a $100 Amazon eGift Card
    Guess the Dow Contest 2020

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #1754

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Holy Cow, really?!

    For the record, my 2020 returns included...
    My TSP was +18.54% (would have been 20.70% if I hadn't forgot to click the Submit button on one of my IFTs)
    My wife's TSP which I copy my moves for was +20.70%
    My Roth IRA was up 197.9%, gulp. Thank you GBTC and ARK funds and other lucky trades.
    That's going to fund a very long road trip next summer if Covid goes away. I'm tired of seeing my kids only 2-dimensionally and want to visit many of my favorite places in the west for extended periods...a few weeks at Mt. Rainier for example, and a few weeks on the Oregon coast.

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  5. #1755

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I see two things that happened with AGG today that could result in at least a short term bottom for the F fund.

    1) It penetrated the 200-dma then reversed back up and closed above it.
    2) it bottomed one penny below the November low. That could have completed an A-B-C correction. Time will tell.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GB...86&a=693978923

    With the stock market streeeeetched to historic extremes, I wonder if we're close to a significant turn across the board...
    https://northmantrader.com/2021/01/12/stretched-2/

    Hussman's predicted forward return over the next 12 years is now negative 2% per year...
    https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status...638274/photo/1

    I don't think we're at a major top yet, but I'm seeing a lot of gurus pointing to around late April as a possibility.
    Last edited by Tsunami; 01-12-2021 at 06:47 PM.


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  7. #1756

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Interesting stuff from Bridgewater regarding the decline of the U.S./west and rise of China and how to deal with it. The videos are interesting as you go through it, especially Dalio in the 2nd video...
    https://www.bridgewater.com/research...global-outlook

    Watching this ratio for a turn up could be very telling...
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FX...d=p32306403653

    Edit: Regarding the mentions of "AltCoin"... https://www.coindesk.com/dalio-expec...e-our-scrutiny
    Last edited by Tsunami; 02-13-2021 at 09:57 AM.

  8.  
  9. #1757

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Got silver? I've been buying calls in SLV, AGQ, AG and FSM...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtxr_yXDXTo

  10.  
  11. #1758

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    So great to see Peter Eliades back at home finally. He's warning of "one of the most important tops of our lifetime", and if the chorus of other gurus I follow are correct I think he's right. It should be coming some time between late April and early June I think...short term, looks like one more drop this week, then comes the final hurrah rally to the top...

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmu...z_X-z4FzNkJ5rg

    By the way, his software is great, I was one of the first subscribers last May and I love it...but you have to get a TradeStation account to get, and OMG is TradeStation awful!

    I've been following this guy a while and he's been pretty good. His 4140 target for the top fits right into Eliades' software projection box.

    https://twitter.com/masterpandawu

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  13. #1759

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Every month Hussman comes up with new and interesting ways to say that the market is at the most extreme overvaluations in history, and every month it just goes higher.

    "I suspect that a near-vertical market plunge on the order of 25-35% is coming, probably quite shortly, most likely out of the blue, as in 1987, driven by nothing more than the sudden concerted effort of overextended investors to sell, and the need for a large price adjustment in order to induce scarce buyers to take the other side."

    Ignore at your own risk...I've met my 8% goal for the year and locked it in today, but will continue to look for quick trade opportunities every month.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210315/

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  15. #1760

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Every month Hussman comes up with new and interesting ways to say that the market is at the most extreme overvaluations in history, and every month it just goes higher.

    "I suspect that a near-vertical market plunge on the order of 25-35% is coming, probably quite shortly, most likely out of the blue, as in 1987, driven by nothing more than the sudden concerted effort of overextended investors to sell, and the need for a large price adjustment in order to induce scarce buyers to take the other side."

    Ignore at your own risk...I've met my 8% goal for the year and locked it in today, but will continue to look for quick trade opportunities every month.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210315/
    Say it long enough and eventually of course it will come to pass, because that's the history of the market. Then he pats himself on the back and says, "see I told you so". Meanwhile if you stayed out due to fear and followed that advice you made nothing...

    Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
    Expected FERS Retirement; December 2028
    Thru-hike the Appalachian trail spring 2029

  16.  
  17. #1761

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hussman funds haven't done so well either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    I used to follow Hussman with his periodic email research papers and stopped following him some time around May. I just got so tired of the negativity, years of rooting for a car crash, years of criticizing the federal reserve, years of the whole stupid fiat argument...
    Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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  19. #1762

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quite a sobering video from Peter today. I've been watching his updates over the past year and today's was an important one. As always, time will tell...but the projections have been pretty accurate to this point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    So great to see Peter Eliades back at home finally. He's warning of "one of the most important tops of our lifetime", and if the chorus of other gurus I follow are correct I think he's right. It should be coming some time between late April and early June I think...short term, looks like one more drop this week, then comes the final hurrah rally to the top...

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmu...z_X-z4FzNkJ5rg

    By the way, his software is great, I was one of the first subscribers last May and I love it...but you have to get a TradeStation account to get, and OMG is TradeStation awful!

    I've been following this guy a while and he's been pretty good. His 4140 target for the top fits right into Eliades' software projection box.

    https://twitter.com/masterpandawu
    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  21. #1763

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Nordic View Post
    Quite a sobering video from Peter today. I've been watching his updates over the past year and today's was an important one. As always, time will tell...but the projections have been pretty accurate to this point.
    Nordic - I sent this article to Peter regarding his comments about needing to see a NYAD divergence for a major top. Apparently that isn't true.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/412...allenging-myth

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  23. #1764

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    For those that trade outside of the TSP. Here's a chart showing the best times of the day to buy/sell in 2021:

    Best Times of the Day to Buy and Sell - 2021.JPG
    http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/down...2767&mode=view

    David Hunter keeps upping the ante in his parabolic top prediction. Now he's saying 4700 is coming soon...

    https://soundcloud.com/milesfranklin...e-david-hunter

    My target is much more subdued, around 4100-4150.


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