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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1669

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks Blueroadster. I'm still mulling over moving my TSP to an IRA. The time to do it would be during a relatively calm period but I don't see that coming for a while.

    So Congress will be passing that stimulus bill soon, hopefully...keep in mind though what happened right after they passed TARP back on 10/3/08...the market went straight down over 20% over the next 5 days.

    http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/down...5333&mode=view

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  3. #1670

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Call me crazy but the market is behaving just as expected lately in Elliott wave terms and I put one put back in today.
    I went 25% C and 25% I, since the I fund is following seasonality perfectly and in fact was positive for the 2nd half of March.

    Quarter-end account status... I finished March at -8.38% (the tracker is wrong since I was a day late inputting my exit on 3/11 and 3/12 happened to be a horrific day that I escaped in my actual account, but not in the autotracker)

    If things still look like I expect tomorrow (this pullback should bottom in the upper 2300s to mid-2400s today or tomorrow) I will put the other foot in and hope to ride a 2nd leg of the rally up to 2800ish and get back to green for 2020.

    Some Elliott wave guys are super bullish and think that the market is heading to record highs from here. I can't swallow that pill yet, but I suppose it's possible with all the helicopter money.
    This is a smart dude and he thinks that could happen as well...

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...bble-is-coming

    Awww, very cool, I just snapped a photo of a baby Sandhill Crane out my office window... looks like it must have just hatched within the last day or two...blurry since it's about 120 feet away across the pond...meanwhile look what's lurking in the pond hoping it gets closer...

    Chick.jpg
    Chick and mom.jpg
    Gator.jpg

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  5. #1671

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks, Tsunami. So, you're thinking this is as close to a retest of the lows as we're going to get?
    100% S COB 18 May; was 100% G COB 31 Mar; was 100% S COB 24 Feb; was 100% G COB 08 Feb;

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  7. #1672

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Thanks, Tsunami. So, you're thinking this is as close to a retest of the lows as we're going to get?
    I don't know since one can never predict what happens after 12 noon. So thanks to the dumb 12 noon IFT cuttoff I went half in.
    This pullback (if that's all it is) could last into Friday. Since so many people are expecting a "retest" of the low I suspect it won't get really close to the low. A 50% pullback to 2417ish could be all the algo's allow.
    Ms. Market doesn't like to be cooperative of what the masses expect to see.

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  9. #1673

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Not sure what the TSP's issue is but they screwed me over last night and did not process my IFT to go 25% C and 25% I fund...but they did process the same IFT for my wife's TSP that I'd entered. Her TSP is only down -7.11% for 2020 and she's benefiting from today's gains, if it holds, but I'm not, argh. I've double and triple checked that they do have today's IFT's pending for both of our accounts to go 50% C and 50% I fund though. I'm gambling that the S&P will rally further to 2800 or a bit higher next week.
    Seems like they're daring me to leave the TSP.

    The price of regular gas is down to $1.699 at our local Costco. Crazy.
    Oil has real value, so judging from this long term oil chart I think this is an amazing buying opportunity for select oil sector stocks...ERX is very tempting and is up 15% today.

    http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/down...5561&mode=view

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  11. #1674

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    That's not good. Was your IFT done close to the deadline, or did they outright not process it at all?


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  13. #1675

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I put in the IFTs for both my account and my wife's account at around 9 am yesterday, way before the deadline.
    I just called TSP, and they checked my web log and concluded that this time I'd apparently forgotten to click the confirmation button at the bottom, so of course it didn't go through.
    With the way the market is now falling this afternoon I may end up being happy about that though since the gains are almost gone.
    One tidbit from my call, the customer service person said she could actually change my IFT for today if I wanted to on the phone, even though it's well past the 12 noon deadline. I didn't know you could do that. Hmm.

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  15. #1676

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Not sure what the TSP's issue is but they screwed me over last night and did not process my IFT to go 25% C and 25% I fund...but they did process the same IFT for my wife's TSP that I'd entered. Her TSP is only down -7.11% for 2020 and she's benefiting from today's gains, if it holds, but I'm not, argh. I've double and triple checked that they do have today's IFT's pending for both of our accounts to go 50% C and 50% I fund though. I'm gambling that the S&P will rally further to 2800 or a bit higher next week.
    Seems like they're daring me to leave the TSP.

    The price of regular gas is down to $1.699 at our local Costco. Crazy.
    Oil has real value, so judging from this long term oil chart I think this is an amazing buying opportunity for select oil sector stocks...ERX is very tempting and is up 15% today.

    http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/down...5561&mode=view
    By the closing bell, you just might think it was a blessing in disguise.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  17. #1677

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    By the closing bell, you just might think it was a blessing in disguise.
    No such luck. Forgetting to click the "confirm" button cost me over $6K. At least I got it right on my wife's account, I would have gotten a beating otherwise.
    Looks to me like the market is set up to continue the rally tomorrow. This morning was an awful UE weekly claims report, much worse than expected...tomorrow we could get the same reaction to the monthly report...once bad news is behind the market people buy, plus there will be improving coronavirus news over the weekend. That's my theory anyway and I'm sticking to it, 100%, literally. Gulp.

    Peter Eliades' projections software has been masterful since I started watching his videos last September, and I'm hoping it's right again and this rally continues up to the 2800s next week.
    After that all bets are off and a drop to 1800 or even lower wouldn't surprise me at all.

    https://www.youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles

    P.S. - Here's the main chart on oil that has me bullish on select oil stocks and ETFs like ERX, for the short term anyway... to me this pattern looks like a long term bottom and next is a long term up move on oil...which might mean inflation finally?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...72&a=378205075

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  19. #1678

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    An important read in my opinion. It's time to start coming up with a plan on how to handle this.... I wonder if a new currency is introduced before it gets really bad though.

    https://www.financialsense.com/blog/19558/end-money

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  21. #1679

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    By the closing bell, you just might think it was a blessing in disguise.
    Or not.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  23. #1680

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Bottom of page 4, contributing factors to the Great Depression, numbers 1 and 2...boy those sound familiar...

    https://www3.nd.edu/~jstiver/FIN462/...%20Crashes.pdf

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