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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1633

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Peter Eliades has a new projection target that’s over 5% lower than yesterdays’ close...somewhere between 2856 and 2951 for the bottom.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1TcZ85lBSo

    Sven Henrich's wife is a very good technician herself and on Feb 11th she called a likely top near 3382, and a target in the 2900's.
    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...91329067544576
    I can see why she picked that since the rally started at about 2900 in October on the day the Fed started their “not QE” money injections, and there’s a big gap way down at 2950.

    So for now I’ll go with Peter’s 2951 minimum as my target to get back in. Seems like a big bounce is likely first, then another drop, but there's no way to know the path...nor are the lower targets guaranteed.

    Lastly, note that chart 57 is nowhere near giving a sell signal and the 10-day EMA line has just now barely turned down from it’s moon shot. Tops are a process and take time.
    https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5

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  3. #1634

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I put pretty much zero stock in anything zerohedge posts, but this article has been making the rounds in forums elsewhere.
    I won't even attempt to understand it but the bottom line is eye-catching, that if the S&P 500 closed below 3139 yesterday (which it did), then there would be a quick 10-15% "flush"...
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no...e-deleveraging

    One guy I subscribed to for a very short time (he's way too expensive) long ago but still sends me free teasers points out that the index's frequently follow patterns on a monthly basis.
    Sometimes the market will just go up from the first day of the month to the end of the month, sometimes the opposite, and sometimes the market will go up to the middle of the month
    then fall to the last day of the month. Maybe that's what we're getting this month, in a dramatic way.
    So the low could be tomorrow, with maybe some spillover into Monday, then comes the reversal? Who knows, but it's sure really oversold at this point.

    A bit worrisome is that on a monthly basis this correction barely even shows up on the long-term chart at this point:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...=668&cmd=print

    Peter Eliades is now hinting at a lower low below 2950. And that 11-year long wedge pattern he shows that's now breaking to the downside today is worrisome. Hmm.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_7VXF2GErg

    One more thing to show how extreme this selloff is...
    https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...42858286485504

    Lastly, my sob story, just one week ago today I put my entire Roth IRA into TVIX...I was so confident of a fall I put every dime on the red square at a price of $39.28....then I sold later that day at $42.25...now a week later TVIX is trading at $85+...I could have more than doubled my IRA in a week!

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  5. #1635

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I couldn't fathom the Zerohedge article prediction I posted yesterday of another 10%-15% plunge, but now overnight I see that two of the technical gurus I follow have targets in that range.
    Per Eliades' video last night (very end) his target looks like about 16% lower from yesterday's close.
    Yikes, I can't imagine that this is only half over, but I supposed it's possible. Everyone has to make their own decisions based on your situation...but for now I still think most likely once this panic is over the market will head swiftly back to new record highs.
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmu...z_X-z4FzNkJ5rg

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  7. #1636

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I don't know if there's enough volume in weekend trading to give it any merit, but so far the weekend warriors are pushing the Dow futures down over 2%...

    https://www.ig.com/en/indices/market...nd-wall-street

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  9. #1637

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Interesting. I have never heard of that. Do you know if they have been accurate in predicting Monday openings?

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  11. #1638

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Interesting. I have never heard of that. Do you know if they have been accurate in predicting Monday openings?
    I'd never heard of it until Sven Henrich posted it last weekend on his Twitter feed, and in that case it did end up being accurate when the regular futures markets opened up at 6 pm eastern time Sunday evening.

    Sven put out a good weekend video yesterday, and he's among the crowd expecting a strong bounce:

    https://northmantrader.com/2020/02/29/2020-crash/

    I don't think I've ever seen these indicators stretched outside the Bollinger Bands for so long. 5 days for the VIX, 4 for the others.
    It would be incredible if they stay outside the bands another day on Monday. The rally could be like every garage door spring in the county breaking simultaneously.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...7343&cmd=print


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  13. #1639

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Not too surprising, considering the fact that has been a death and further spreading of the virus in the US.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I don't know if there's enough volume in weekend trading to give it any merit, but so far the weekend warriors are pushing the Dow futures down over 2%...

    https://www.ig.com/en/indices/market...nd-wall-street
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Expected retirement date: November 2023

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  15. #1640

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    Default Tsunami's Account Talk

    As of 9 am Sunday morning, S&P500 futures are only down about (-0.5%). It’s down, but not a lot.

    I’m still thinking a little bounce up is due, but we should not be fooled by the bounce, we are only a week into the fall, and it may be some time before the actual bottom is in. Be VERY careful if you try and play one of these bounces. It is very high risk, by past historical standards. A virus is a big unknown and we are in very rare, uncharted historic territory.

    Oh- and THANK YOU Tsunami for that IG website. I have never seen that one either, and it is full of goodies! I’m going to bookmark it and check it out!

    Thanks!

    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  17. #1641

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    As of 9 am Sunday morning, S&P500 futures are only down about (-0.5%). It’s down, but not a lot.
    Where do you get these quotes? I didn’t think they started trading until 6pm Eastern time?
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Expected retirement date: November 2023

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  19. #1642

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    That’s only the “official” futures. There is behind the scene futures trading all the time. I Was always under the impression that it is used by hedge funds managers. See the link below that tsunami posted from ig for one example.

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  21. #1643

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Man, when is this dead cat going to bounce?! I'm hoping by tomorrow afternoon a screaming rally starts.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1237106632829669376

    Cat CPR.jpg

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  23. #1644

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Awesome picture! There will be bounces along the way. Futures signaling one for today. How much of yesterday we get back who knows. And when it fills the up gap is another question. These are some wild and crazy days for sure! And with only one move left... when to use it!!!! 100% G for now.

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