Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Peter Eliades has a new projection target that’s over 5% lower than yesterdays’ close...somewhere between 2856 and 2951 for the bottom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1TcZ85lBSo
Sven Henrich's wife is a very good technician herself and on Feb 11th she called a likely top near 3382, and a target in the 2900's.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...91329067544576
I can see why she picked that since the rally started at about 2900 in October on the day the Fed started their “not QE” money injections, and there’s a big gap way down at 2950.
So for now I’ll go with Peter’s 2951 minimum as my target to get back in. Seems like a big bounce is likely first, then another drop, but there's no way to know the path...nor are the lower targets guaranteed.
Lastly, note that chart 57 is nowhere near giving a sell signal and the 10-day EMA line has just now barely turned down from it’s moon shot. Tops are a process and take time.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
I put pretty much zero stock in anything zerohedge posts, but this article has been making the rounds in forums elsewhere.
I won't even attempt to understand it but the bottom line is eye-catching, that if the S&P 500 closed below 3139 yesterday (which it did), then there would be a quick 10-15% "flush"...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no...e-deleveraging
One guy I subscribed to for a very short time (he's way too expensive) long ago but still sends me free teasers points out that the index's frequently follow patterns on a monthly basis.
Sometimes the market will just go up from the first day of the month to the end of the month, sometimes the opposite, and sometimes the market will go up to the middle of the month
then fall to the last day of the month. Maybe that's what we're getting this month, in a dramatic way.
So the low could be tomorrow, with maybe some spillover into Monday, then comes the reversal? Who knows, but it's sure really oversold at this point.
A bit worrisome is that on a monthly basis this correction barely even shows up on the long-term chart at this point:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...=668&cmd=print
Peter Eliades is now hinting at a lower low below 2950. And that 11-year long wedge pattern he shows that's now breaking to the downside today is worrisome. Hmm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_7VXF2GErg
One more thing to show how extreme this selloff is...
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...42858286485504
Lastly, my sob story, just one week ago today I put my entire Roth IRA into TVIX...I was so confident of a fall I put every dime on the red square at a price of $39.28....then I sold later that day at $42.25...now a week later TVIX is trading at $85+...I could have more than doubled my IRA in a week! :worried:
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
I couldn't fathom the Zerohedge article prediction I posted yesterday of another 10%-15% plunge, but now overnight I see that two of the technical gurus I follow have targets in that range.
Per Eliades' video last night (very end) his target looks like about 16% lower from yesterday's close.
Yikes, I can't imagine that this is only half over, but I supposed it's possible. Everyone has to make their own decisions based on your situation...but for now I still think most likely once this panic is over the market will head swiftly back to new record highs.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmu...z_X-z4FzNkJ5rg
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
I don't know if there's enough volume in weekend trading to give it any merit, but so far the weekend warriors are pushing the Dow futures down over 2%...
https://www.ig.com/en/indices/market...nd-wall-street
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Interesting. I have never heard of that. Do you know if they have been accurate in predicting Monday openings?
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tsptalk
Interesting. I have never heard of that. Do you know if they have been accurate in predicting Monday openings?
I'd never heard of it until Sven Henrich posted it last weekend on his Twitter feed, and in that case it did end up being accurate when the regular futures markets opened up at 6 pm eastern time Sunday evening.
Sven put out a good weekend video yesterday, and he's among the crowd expecting a strong bounce:
https://northmantrader.com/2020/02/29/2020-crash/
I don't think I've ever seen these indicators stretched outside the Bollinger Bands for so long. 5 days for the VIX, 4 for the others.
It would be incredible if they stay outside the bands another day on Monday. The rally could be like every garage door spring in the county breaking simultaneously.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...7343&cmd=print
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Not too surprising, considering the fact that has been a death and further spreading of the virus in the US.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tsunami
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Quote:
Originally Posted by
James48843
As of 9 am Sunday morning, S&P500 futures are only down about (-0.5%). It’s down, but not a lot.
Where do you get these quotes? I didn’t think they started trading until 6pm Eastern time?
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
That’s only the “official” futures. There is behind the scene futures trading all the time. I Was always under the impression that it is used by hedge funds managers. See the link below that tsunami posted from ig for one example.
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Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Man, when is this dead cat going to bounce?! I'm hoping by tomorrow afternoon a screaming rally starts.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1237106632829669376
Attachment 45623
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Awesome picture! There will be bounces along the way. Futures signaling one for today. How much of yesterday we get back who knows. And when it fills the up gap is another question. These are some wild and crazy days for sure! And with only one move left... when to use it!!!! 100% G for now.