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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1621

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Déjà vu.

    This commentary https://northmantrader.com/2020/02/0...-into-history/ brought me back in time to mid-March 2000.
    We saw it recently with bitcoin and then cannabis stocks. It's like you know it when you see it. Of course FAANG has been going for a long time, but once your cab drivers and barbers start giving tips to buy Tesla and other high flyers it will be time.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #1622

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    That's quite the trend line, and it was finally hit again yesterday. Can the market just plow right through it?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxCgK0zyL4A&t=185s

    The current 2021 COLA watch for retirees, not looking great so far...c'mon Fed, we need more cow bell!
    https://www.moaa.org/content/take-ac...ch/#COLA-Watch

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  5. #1623

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I see some brave souls moved into stocks today. That should work for at least a strong bounce for 1 to 3 days. I would have gotten in today if I had an IFT. Being out of IFTs, I'm hoping for a wave B bounce, then a wave C fall down to 3150 or so next week. I almost decided to move from F to G today and lock in the nice gains there, but the Elliott wave pattern for AGG and TLT shows there should be a wave 4 then another drop in rates that coincides with the bottom in stocks.
    I've been managing my wife's TSP as well and she's at +6.84% as of now....so I guess I'm jealous and need to make a bold move to catch up to myself.

    I don't see any reason for this to be "the" bull market top yet, so if I was still in stocks I'd hang on at this point. But to me the market has been a screaming sell lately since it was at record overbought levels by some measures, such as the ratio of market cap to GDP, frequently posted by Sven Henrich. https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader The coronavirus is providing a needed excuse for a cool off.
    I wonder if the Fed might panic and do an emergency rate cut soon. The bond market is pretty much forcing them to do it.
    I expected I'd be able to start our mortgage refi process today, but our credit union is stubborn and still hasn't cut rates today. Maybe tomorrow.

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  7. #1624

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami, definitely keep us brave souls posted on bounce and wave targets!
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  9. #1625

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Tsunami, definitely keep us brave souls posted on bounce and wave targets!
    That’s easy assuming this will be a typical ABC 3-wave pullback. But it could end up being a sideways triangle as well, in which case the low today might already be the bottom of the pullback.
    If it’s a simple 3 wave pullback, and today’s low was the bottom of wave A, then:

    3393.52 (top) – 3214.65 (today’s low, if it holds) = 178.87 points

    Possible targets for the bounce…
    38.2% = 3282.98
    50% = 3304.09
    61.8% = 3325.19

    Then once the top is in, just subtract the 178.87 points from that for the target for the Wave C bottom, if wave C equals wave A. It’s rarely that easy though.

    It's very possible though that today was the bottom, just no way to know until after the fact.
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...55765349928960
    Last edited by Tsunami; 02-24-2020 at 01:40 PM.

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  11. #1626

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Seems like the market should be reaching at least a short-term bottom, but I've never been very good at catching knives so maybe it's a good thing I don't have an IFT. I did move to G today though, thinking that maybe the bond rally is on it's last fumes.

    A new cheery commentary by Hussman is out. It's always good to keep the big picture in mind and I think his long-term views will be correct, unfortunately. The party is almost over, maybe one more rally to new highs?

    "The menu of estimated prospective returns available to passive, long-term investors is easily the worst in history. This is the consequence that years of Fed-induced yield-seeking speculation have produced."

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200225/

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  13. #1627

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    If there's a head-and-shoulders pattern forming in the SPY, then there's an opportunity right around the corner. Of course, that means the real drop may be on the horizon.

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  15. Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I am new to the group. 51 years with 400k in TSP. Just joined TSPtalk in December and started reading up on all the great information being shared. I came in with my investments spread over C, S, I, & F. Then after studying the posts I moved everything to 50% C + 50% S at the first of the year. I was getting concerned about the reports last week and lucked up. I moved all my investments to the F fund last Wednesday. So that shot me up the reader board to 16th place. Mostly out of luck and partly out of what I learned from you guys. So times like this are new to me. Obviously everyone is watching the market and hoping to time the bottom. My questions is what do you do with your new allocations in times like this? Do you change them to match where the rest of your funds are? In my case F. or I was considering buying in I. Thinking it will take a beating over the next couple months, and i would be buying cheep?

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  17. #1629

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I always think dca so I place my contributions into stock positions. Right now I am 100%i on contributions.


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  19. #1630

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Same here, 100% S for contributions. This causes a slight departure from the AutoTracker, not enough to worry about IMO. Adjustments can be made, but I've not tried to figure that out.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  21. #1631

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I think it depends on how often you typically make IFTs. Since (when I was working and making contributions) I made IFTs often (and still do) I never bothered to change my contributions, and just kept it at 100% C for most of my career. Every time you make an IFT the recent contributions are swept into whatever your new allocation is, so since I typically make one or two IFTs every month I never worried about the contributions (especially when your account balance get to be large). If you don't make moves often then you'd want to set your contributions to match your general outlook on the market I think, so either all into stocks if you think the bull market isn't over yet, or all into G and/or F.

    That's my 2 cents.

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  23. #1632

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    The party is almost over, maybe one more rally to new highs?
    Two weeks ago I felt the master planners would get it to Dow 30K by mid-March. Not planning on that now.

    Is it possible by June? Sure, but there are too many trapped longs 2,500 points up from here right now that are saying, "please, just get me to even and I'll get out of the market".

    Anyone looking to make money from here certainly can with the sharp bear market rallies soon to come.

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