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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1609

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by 1965Vintage View Post
    I went from G to F today. It all seems too good to be true. But what do I know?

    I'm looking for a major correction in the S&P soon. But I'm a contraian.... So...

    Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    I'm tempted to do the same, but the TLT chart doesn't look bullish to me yet. The sharp drop the last two days makes me think it's heading down to the 200-dma near 131 before reversing back up. So I'm staying in G for now.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TL...d=p79548873074

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  3. #1610

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Just a hunch, more of a hope, but I think the market has started a pullback that should last until about 12/10...maybe a turnaround Tuesday on that morning, then a renewed rally into the 1st quarter of 2020. I've been in F since 11/13, missing out on bigger gains in stocks, but at least F has been rising some too...will stay there until moving back to stocks at the low I'm hoping for.

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  5. #1611

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Not much room for error here... "Probability of a major top if we should close below the stop is now 95.7%." The stop is at 3103.5.

    https://twitter.com/RecessionALERT2

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKzwXjLXYAceexD.png

    Go 'Hawks!
    Last edited by Tsunami; 12-02-2019 at 11:23 PM.


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  7. #1612

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Just a hunch, more of a hope, but I think the market has started a pullback that should last until about 12/10...maybe a turnaround Tuesday on that morning, then a renewed rally into the 1st quarter of 2020. I've been in F since 11/13, missing out on bigger gains in stocks, but at least F has been rising some too...will stay there until moving back to stocks at the low I'm hoping for.
    So far so good on my hope for a pullback. Yesterday's low should be wave A down. Now, with the help of the 285th report that "trade talks are going well" we're getting wave B up, which should hold below 3120ish. Then comes wave C down, bottoming some time in the next week...the morning of 12/10 still looks possible. Peter Eliades's software is now projecting a closing low of 3038.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R39...em-uploademail

    Meanwhile I'm hanging out F and doing OK. I've got just 2% to go to finally recoup my losses from my disastrous 4th quarter of 2018, the last quarter of my working career...and if successful I will have done so while only being in stocks about 20% of the time this year.

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  9. #1613

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Been watching that dude since you recommended awhile back. Software seems solid.

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  11. #1614

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

    Wow, 97....that's "extreme greed" for sure and it hasn't been that high in at least 3 years. Just 3 more points and the Fed can claim victory!

    I see lots of people joined me in the F fund today, misery loves company.

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  13. #1615

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Great Link! It is packed with tons of very good information. Thank you Tsunami!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

    Wow, 97....that's "extreme greed" for sure and it hasn't been that high in at least 3 years. Just 3 more points and the Fed can claim victory!

    I see lots of people joined me in the F fund today, misery loves company.
    CURRENT: 2-20-20= 30S-40F-30G // PRIOR: 2-14-20= 30S-30C-40F // 2-11-20= 30S-30C-20I-20F //1-24-20 = G100% // Chart Links=Page 215, #2575 & 2576

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  15. #1616

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    That is going to make me look at the mcclellan again. Haven't charted that one for a while. Used to look at that and transports for short term trades but that was back when 1-2% daily swing was so common it was normal. Be hard to make a play using it now but still worth looking at.

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  17. #1617

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    That is going to make me look at the mcclellan again. Haven't charted that one for a while. Used to look at that and transports for short term trades but that was back when 1-2% daily swing was so common it was normal. Be hard to make a play using it now but still worth looking at.
    Peter is getting serious now, doing his update in a t-shirt. Everything is in place for at least a short term top at this point.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvQrSIzGwwM&t=326s

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  19. #1618

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Very interesting...can the Fed overcome the bearish forces?

    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...ng_indication/

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  21. #1619

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    An interesting chart. Significant bottoms often occur when the S&P 500 dividend yield reaches about 2.15%, and tops occur near 1.75%.

    http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/down...3800&mode=view

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  23. #1620

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Déjà vu.

    This commentary https://northmantrader.com/2020/02/0...-into-history/ brought me back in time to mid-March 2000. A vague memory of a fun weekend with three work pals. We’d driven up to Reno for a long weekend to bet on and watch March Madness games primarily. I remember almost nothing from that weekend (too much fun?) but one vivid memory is us all sitting together for a lunch and noticing that instead of basketball almost every TV screen in the place was set on CNBC (or whatever the equivalent was at that time) and we were all smiles watching the ticker tape as the Nasdaq soared that day and we talked about the easy money we were making in our brokerage accounts. As it turned out that was either the weekend of the very tippy top in the Nasdaq dot.com mania or within a few days of it. I proceeded to lose about 90% of my IRA over the next couple of years. Lesson learned and in 2008 I didn’t lose a dime.

    History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes they say, and I could certainly see the market peaking at some point this year and then bottoming in 2022. If history rhymes per Jay Kaeppel’s data that’s what could very well happen.

    Presidential Elections And The ?Early Decade Lull? | Jay On The Markets
    20-Year Symmetry (The Good News) | Jay On The Markets
    20-Year Symmetry (The Bad News) | Jay On The Markets

    So how do you know when to dismount the bull? My plan includes monitoring the recession/bear market indicators posted frequently by George Vrba here:

    https://seekingalpha.com/author/geor...gular_articles

    Until then I’ll attempt to keep riding the waves since that’s just what I do. I’ve gotta be happy with where I’m at so far this year, but I’m still kicking myself over my January move where I panicked back out to the F fund four days earlier than planned. If I’d stayed in C through options expiration day on 1/17 as I’d planned I’d currently be at +4.83%. Grrr.


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