Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Great interview of Neil Howe and William Strauss on C-SPAN in 1997 that is pertinent to what is going on the world these days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXcDiGpVtbc
They were the authors of The Fourth Turning, which I'm now about 2/3's of the way through. Not exactly a page turner, but it's full of interesting history and is spot on in it's predictions of the next crisis stage that was to come beginning in 2007 (and lasting into the late 2020's). I wish they'd publish and update of it.
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
I'm counting 5 waves up in bonds completing right about now...if bonds start correcting/tumbling that should mean money pours into stocks for a few weeks.
If I had an IFT left I'd be going to stocks today, looking for around 3050 in the S&P 500 by 9/20. Oh well.
Looking like a very stormy/soggy weekend coming up in central Florida...Accuweather says over 7 inches of rain Sunday/Monday.
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
From the legendary investor Bill O'Neil. Today's big jump by the previously very weak oil sector could be a major warning....
"Other Bear Market Warnings - Another sure sign of the beginning of a bear market, as mentioned earlier, is when the original bull market leaders being to falter, and a number of lower-quality, low priced speculative stocks begin to move up. When the forgotten old dogs begin to bark and raise up out of the grave and spearhead the market's advance, the market is on its last feeble leg. Watch out."
Page 39/140: http://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3f96...4f721d598d.pdf
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Tick tick tick...
https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/sta...11451413635072
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...tting-started/
My 8/28 prediction of a top at around 3050 by 9/20 will need to be pushed back a week or two, but ~3050 is still possible.
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Thanks for the links! Great reads!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tsunami
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
2860 was a head and shoulders target, and it completed wave 5 down of this weeks drop, plus the market got extremely oversold after that plunge...so I'm looking for a (wave 4) bounce then one more drop to create some technical divergence...then comes a bigger bounce next week...but I don't expect new highs. I think the tide has turned and the masses are finally recognizing that we're entering a recession. The masses doesn't include the forever-optimistic advisers on TV though.
Still a long ways to go to fulfill this pattern:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EF9akUkXUAIVs3e.jpg
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
I think I posted this a long time ago: https://investingforaliving.us/2016/...me-the-market/ (which includes a link to this nice article: In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator | PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS)
Currently the 12-month moving average of the Unemployment rate is at 3.75% So all it would take in tomorrows jobs report is a seemingly innocuous tick up to 3.8% to trigger step 1 of that sell signal method.
Here's a chart that depicts that: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$N...07&a=442365228
Currently the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500 month-end closing price is at 2835. The S&P is now down close to breaking below that level.
Hmm. I wonder if tomorrow's jobs report might provide the trifecta in bad economic reports this week, and show a UE rate of 3.8%...and cause the S&P to drop below 2835. If so that could signal a major turn.
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
So the sell trigger I mentioned on 10/3 didn't occur obviously....now I'm hoping that Peter Eliades' stock market cycles software projections come to fruition and the S&P gets up to 3052 or higher...
I've been following his updates for a few weeks. Good stuff...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJGpg7X_KBQ
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tsunami
So the sell trigger I mentioned on 10/3 didn't occur obviously....now I'm hoping that Peter Eliades' stock market cycles software projections come to fruition and the S&P gets up to 3052 or higher...
I've been following his updates for a few weeks. Good stuff...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJGpg7X_KBQ
I'm hoping for a slight dip so I can drop in my other 50%. Not sure if I want to go 100% C or S or split 50/50.
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
Hmm, combine this...
https://northmantrader.com/2019/10/29/magic-show/
With chart #54 here...
https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5
...and it's like printing money. Sell now and re-buy for the year-end rally at the "Green Line"?
Peter Eliades software (link below) is pointing to around 3080 or 3090...maybe it spikes up to there tomorrow with the rate cut news, then the drop begins. We'll see.
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
So here we are in that 3080 to 3090 area.
This indicator hasn't been at such a screaming sell level since January 2018. Remember that crash? I sure do, luckily I escaped to G just a week before that peak.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIm_I4TXsAMeB4b.png:large
The Elliott wave pattern just needs one more high to be complete, just one more push above yesterday's high of 3085.20. It looks like it will get there at or soon after the open today.
All it would take is one snowflake for a repeat at this point. the Fear & Greed index is at 86. VIX is reaching new lows. It feels like that moment at the top of a long roller coaster climb...what a great view! Tick tick tick...
Re: Tsunami's Account Talk
I went from G to F today. It all seems too good to be true. But what do I know?
I'm looking for a major correction in the S&P soon. But I'm a contraian.... So...
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