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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1585

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Finally heard an update on the TSP's plan to change the I fund...at the very end of this interview Arthur Stein mentions it's supposed to happen in mid-2020.

    https://www.podcastone.com/episode/I...your-TSP-moves

    https://federalnewsnetwork.com/comme...or-the-i-fund/
    Last edited by Tsunami; 07-09-2019 at 07:00 PM.

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  3. #1586

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Great articles! Thank you Tsunami. I especially liked the Federal news article and the PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2050 outlook link. Very interesting!
    Best wishes to you!
    CURRENT: 9/12/18=G20, S35, C35, I-10 PRIOR: 8-29-19=S15%-G85% / 8-28-19 =G50%-S30%-C15%- i5% /7-18-19 G25%-F75%S / Chart Links=Page 215, #2575 & 2576

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  5. #1587

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Great articles! Thank you Tsunami. I especially liked the Federal news article and the PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2050 outlook link. Very interesting!
    Best wishes to you!
    Thanks. I'm not convinced that the new I fund will be all that much better, but the logic sounds good. Here's a ratio chart of the last 5 years of the ETF I found (ACWX) which most closely matches what the new I fund will be versus VEA, the current I fund. The last few years the trend is up, so that's good for the outlook for the new I fund, if it continues. I've always been a big believer in demographics, so adding in emerging markets with their faster growing populations should boost returns as long as those countries are stable politically and economically...

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AC...d=p80014266267

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  7. #1588

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Thanks. I'm not convinced that the new I fund will be all that much better, but the logic sounds good. Here's a ratio chart of the last 5 years of the ETF I found (ACWX) which most closely matches what the new I fund will be versus VEA, the current I fund. The last few years the trend is up, so that's good for the outlook for the new I fund, if it continues. I've always been a big believer in demographics, so adding in emerging markets with their faster growing populations should boost returns as long as those countries are stable politically and economically...

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AC...d=p80014266267
    Note: Vea is not as great as the EFA etf at matching the I fund as Vea includes Canada while efa and the I fund do not.

    Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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  9. #1589

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm expecting a short-term low late today, or overnight, or near the open tomorrow...then comes the "face ripping" wave 2 rally for a few days...then an even bigger drop. Markets move much faster these days.

    Best case is the correction ends at the bottom of the well-publicized "megaphone" pattern, down around 2150-2200. Worst case would be Hussman's scenario of 60 to 65% down, and that's his minimum target.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190805/

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  11. #1590

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hummm… I just saw a megaphone on the SPY ETF (S&P 500) weekly chart at Above the Green Line, public chart on Stockcharts. I guess I just have a hard time believing it would drop that much, but then again.. who knows. Agree... markets do move very fast. I will be waiting for the Slow Stochastic to start rising above 20 and for MACD to join in by crossing back above its signal line before I go back to equities.... but its hard to be patient. Just dislike the thought of missing the upside on this.

    https://stockcharts.com/public/11078...book/308233788

    Best wishes to you!!
    CURRENT: 9/12/18=G20, S35, C35, I-10 PRIOR: 8-29-19=S15%-G85% / 8-28-19 =G50%-S30%-C15%- i5% /7-18-19 G25%-F75%S / Chart Links=Page 215, #2575 & 2576

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  13. #1591

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    The much ridiculed maligned Hindenburg Omen strikes yet again and McHugh thinks that the historic market top he's been calling for forever is finally at hand.
    See his July updates that have proven accurate, so far....
    https://www.technicalindicatorindex....t-articles.asp

    If Gordon T Long is even close to correct, the next few years will become increasingly terrifying...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlpAYyT9jyA

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  15. #1592

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Per the weekend video, and the futures being up pretty strong, looks like the index's will head for the top of the bear flag over the next day or two...

    https://www.youtube.com/user/msforecasting

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  17. #1593

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Thanks Tsunami! Very helpful for my strategy this week. Hoping the market doesn't end up making me look like a fool again...lol
    But first...Coffee


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  19. #1594

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    RF, that's just what markets do! LOL they make all of us look silly! We just try to make the correct call +51% of the time. Best of luck to us all!

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  21. #1595

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm back to the lily pad at the close today, just one day in the C fund and made enough today to cover my TSP withdrawals for the next few months. A further extension of this rally up to 2950ish is possible, but I'm happy with the gain in this high-risk market.
    Now back to the family reunion week stuff in Detroit (what a depressing place to drive around, but the people somehow maintain their positive spirit).

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  23. #1596

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk


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