Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Wow, what a day in Pullman, WA Saturday, capped off by a Cougar win for the ages over the Ducks, that makes four straight years! Go Cougs!!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1053682727113748481

GO COUGS!!!!

Charts 51 and 52, the S&P is now bumping up against that down trend line yet again. I wonder if it can finally gap above it tomorrow.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5

Then looking at charts 53, and 72 for the Nasdaq-100, it seems like the index's are starting to peel away from those trend lines, which could mean a crescendo of selling panic is near?
https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/7

Like many, I'm 2 days away from a fresh set of IFTs. Now comes the self-debate on whether and when to jump back in. At the very least a hefty bounce should be coming.

Some weekend thoughts…
Going way back in time to when I started posting in this thread I remember talking a lot about demographics, and how the spending wave of the baby boom generation was ending and that would eventually spell trouble for the stock markets and economy. In fact it was the whole reason I chose the name “Tsunami”. This video, is in part a long advertisement, but is also very well done and is one of the best and most thought provoking videos I’ve seen in a long time and is well worth the 49 minutes. I actually muted the Rams-Saints game so I could pay attention LOL. Go Saints! I’m wearing my Steve Gleason “Never Punt” t-shirt today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OFaZcC0lRU
Besides the big picture view (which really affects me since I’m retiring next month and so I’m part of the impending problem, like many of us in the forum), there’s lots of interesting tidbits in there, like how gasoline consumption should trend downward and why, and why dining out will trend towards fast food. When I heard that I paused the video and did a quick ratio chart of McD’s over the S&P 500. Sure enough, McD’s is outperforming and I think that trend will continue for many years to come.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MC...d=p19482418202
Regarding the markets, short term the consensus is a pullback that bottoms by Tuesday, then the 2^nd leg up of the rally lasts at least another week. At that point things get iffy, and in fact a set of criteria I developed a few years ago to provide major top sell signals will in fact trigger a sell signal tomorrow if the market falls (and the next step would be to get out when the next rally peters out, and stay out).
Nenner is always interesting to listen to, and he’s still talking Dow 5,000: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQImqHhOIck
This guy thinks 2021 for the bottom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rrv7...ature=youtu.be
After watching the first video above, and considering commentary by Hussman monthly and others, I’m not dismissing those gloomy views and think a market that’s eventually somewhere between 50% and 80% lower than now is the most likely outcome unless the Fed saves the day again and injects massive liquidity to counteract what the baby boomers will be pulling out of the markets to pay the bills. This time they’ll need to do like Japan and actually buy the stocks that baby boomers will be selling. And no matter what the Fed does, I think Martin Armstrong is correct and what emerges on the other side of the upheaval in the 2020s is that in the 2030s China (and maybe India too if they can ever pull their country together) will emerge as the new dominant financial superpower, like it or not.
Cougs won again, beat Cal in a very ugly game. Never punt! Now at 8-1 they’re in the strange situation where they could lose to Colorado this week, then lose again to Arizona next week, and still go to the Rose Bowl if they just beat the UDub in the Apple Cup. Go Cougs!

That first video is an eye-opener. How accurate do you think that guy is? I'm eligible next year, but plan on staying until 62 if I'm able (4 years). This makes me want to just put my money in the G fund and get that 2-3% safe return....I've lost 125 K since July or so (some badly timed moves), and I'm extremely nervous anyway, but even more so after watching that video....Geez....

Originally Posted by Tsunami

What I get out of this is that, on the 2nd chart, I think we're headed down to the next lower fan line in the low 2000's (2000 to 2200) within the next 6 months or so (or much sooner at the current rate!).
That will complete wave 4 of the entire rally since March 2009, with wave 5 to come in a final euphoric top.

https://lunatictrader.com/2018/10/29...k-market-peak/

Short-term, looks like the wave A of wave 4 bottom has got to be near. Maybe we get a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow with the low near 2600?
Then comes a nice wave B rally, maybe way up to 2880ish and all the way into year end, with "maybe" being the key word.

Go Cougs, up to #10 in the polls! Ride the Mississippi Mustache!
https://247sports.com/college/washin...rit-123657716/

Well, my Cougs bombed out in the Apple Cup, but my year-end rally prediction to 2880 is still alive. Thank you Fed for backing off the brakes!

So much for that Santa Rally to 2880, sigh. As of now I'm set to have my 2nd worst TSP investing year of my career, 2nd only to 2002. Taking this loss right as I'm retiring sucks.
Meanwhile the countdown to retirement continues, just 2 weeks to....the parties and ceremonies are behind me...I'm training my replacement...soon I'll walk away for the final time and I can't wait!

2019 is shaping up to be a G fund kind of year...the ominous warnings are coming daily...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...ime-2018-12-14
http://audio.marketviews.tv/eliades.mp3

I'm looking for a short-term bottom early this week then about a 2 week rally, I hope.

Your going to love not having to go to work! Hope your right about a late month rally.

Wake up Santa! Please wake up!

For those that still believe in Santa and that he will indeed re-awake, here’s three charts that are saying we maybe have a major bottom right here and now….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04264195419&a=2 38140538
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p4336268304c&a=369491944& r=1545142587167 (if the inverse H&S pattern on Amazon plays out the target is about $2143)
https://www.screencast.com/t/euAsM6dsLq

Maybe Jerome Powell will go to his Fed meeting tomorrow dressed like Santa.

Lord, I hope so... my industrial strength sticky pants, with extra stickum, are getting ripe.

Retirement countdown is down to just one day to go, checking out for good Monday morning.

Like FWM I moved to 100% F today....why?...statistically the last day of the year has been down most years, and this rally feels like just that, a rally, with one more low in January coming. That's my guess anyway. I think there will be a more substantial rally coming soon though. I went with F since historically January is a good month for bonds, with gains that would beat the G fund's 0.25% or so. We'll see. Hopefully 2019 is kinder to me than 2018.

Nice interview if anyone hasn't seen it: https://www.financialsense.com/video...full-interview

We have our first-ever blizzard warning in the land of enchantment today, nice day to be home watching football and surfing. Go Cougs! It's gonna be a tight game vs. the Clones tonight.