Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Tsunami

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/201...f-century.html

"This is a very simple chart. It takes the change in GDP and divides it by the change in Debt. What it shows is how much productivity is gained by infusing $1 of debt into our debt backed money system.

Back in the early 1960s a dollar of new debt added almost a dollar to the nation’s output of goods and services. As more debt enters the system the productivity gained by new debt diminishes. This produced a path that was following a diminishing line targeting ZERO in the year 2015. This meant that we could expect that each new dollar of debt added in the year 2015 would add NOTHING to our productivity.

Then a funny thing happened along the way. Macroeconomic DEBT SATURATION occurred causing a phase transition with our debt relationship. This is because total income can no longer support total debt. In the third quarter of 2009 each dollar of debt added produced NEGATIVE 15 cents of productivity, and at the end of 2009, each dollar of new debt now SUBTRACTS 45 cents from GDP!"

At some point even the gubmint will need to show some return on their investment.

Not a good time to be in debt...

I've looking at this chart for days over in KD territory.

From Casey Research's daily email....haven't had time to listen yet but definitely will. This concerns the long rumored gold/silver market manipulation:

"In the wee hours of Tuesday morning, Eric King of King World News sent me the interview headlined above... and it was a shocker to say the least! I called Eric on the telephone as soon as I got up in the morning... and he told me that shortly after he posted the interview, his website had been hacked and about the last third of the interview had been deliberately erased from one of ISP's servers. It was the part where Andrew Maguire and GATA's Adrian Douglas started talking about things like "fraud", "treason" and "financial terrorism". As you are aware, dear reader, Maguire and his wife were the victims of a hit-and-run on Friday... the day after his testimony was read to the CFTC hearing in Washington on Thursday. And as I said yesterday in my comments about his hit-and-run accident... it comes right out of a James Bond thriller... police chase, complete with helicopters. Britain's finest got their man... but will he talk!

This reminds me of what happened to GATA chairman Bill Murphy a couple of years after the organization was founded... and I remember the incidents well. Within the space of six weeks, Bill got beaten up, his website hacked, and his car stolen. His car turned up the day after his insurance company paid up... no damage to the car, money in the console was still there, and his cashmere sweater was still in the back seat. This has all the makings of a movie script somewhere down the road.

Anyway, with my preamble out of the way, here's Chris Powell's preamble to the GATA release on this explosive interview with Andrew Maguire and GATA board member Adrian Douglas... "London metals trader and CFTC whistleblower Andrew Maguire was interviewed with GATA board member Adrian Douglas for 40 minutes Tuesday by Eric King of King World News. Maguire explained how he came to complain to the CFTC about silver market manipulation by JPMorgan Chase traders in London... and then to Douglas when the CFTC failed to call him to testify at its hearing last week on futures trading in the metals market.""

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor..._Douglass.html

I hope TSPTalk isn't shut down for me posting that.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16306.htm

Peak oil, another 2 by 4 on the camel's back.... this is a good summary of the current situation:

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/petro...ion-is-now205/

The best recent estimates say that there were originally about 2.3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil, and in 2008 we reached the point where half of that had been extracted. The current ~80 million barrels a day burn rate (enough barrels to wrap around the earth almost two times if you laid them end to end, every day!) won't be sustainable for much longer. Demand in China and India is increasing exponentially. On long term charts you can now see the price of oil is starting to increase exponentially. As soon as 2012 we could see government moves to ensure the military gets the oil it needs first, and consumers get what's left. If (is there really any doubt?) we get another recession over the next few years that will slow down demand a bit, but best case around 2014 the price of gas is going skyhigh IMHO.

Looking on the bright side, more of us might get to work from home, and I hear Prius's are selling at a discount right now.

Looking ahead a few years, when the markets hit the next bottom, energy-related investments will present great opportunities....lithium miners to supply those electric vehicles...solar will stay hot...railroads...geothermal....uranium miners to supply the renewed nuclear power industry, so we can juice up those electric vehicles....

Whoo hoo, my 100th post.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Whoo hoo, my 100th post.

Congratulations, Tsunami! You've had a `flood' of information in those posts ! ...nothing Dark & Gloomy about That !!Attachment 8995

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Peak oil, another 2 by 4 on the camel's back.... this is a good summary of the current situation:

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/petro...ion-is-now205/

The best recent estimates say that there were originally about 2.3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil, and in 2008 we reached the point where half of that had been extracted. The current ~80 million barrels a day burn rate (enough barrels to wrap around the earth almost two times if you laid them end to end, every day!) won't be sustainable for much longer. Demand in China and India is increasing exponentially. On long term charts you can now see the price of oil is starting to increase exponentially. As soon as 2012 we could see government moves to ensure the military gets the oil it needs first, and consumers get what's left. If (is there really any doubt?) we get another recession over the next few years that will slow down demand a bit, but best case around 2014 the price of gas is going skyhigh IMHO.

Looking on the bright side, more of us might get to work from home, and I hear Prius's are selling at a discount right now.

Looking ahead a few years, when the markets hit the next bottom, energy-related investments will present great opportunities....lithium miners to supply those electric vehicles...solar will stay hot...railroads...geothermal....uranium miners to supply the renewed nuclear power industry, so we can juice up those electric vehicles....

FYI
peak oil is a political lie

oil is re-newable
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645
or just do a google search

http://www.lawfulpath.com/ref/greening.shtml

I enjoy your market insight and look forward to it

Originally Posted by Valkyrie

FYI
peak oil is a political lie...oil is re-newable

Wow, I hope you're not serious. Yes, oil magically appears deep in the earth and will never run out, and the sun shines 24-7 where I live.

Even the politically pressured organizations like the International Energy Agency are now admitting demand will outstrip supply sooner than most expect, by around 2014 per two separate reports that just came out. The coming economic chaos may delay it further if demand stays down, but it's coming eventually and the U.S in particular is not ready.

This documentary is a little old, but is a good intro to the problem:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...74869982904386#

The guys at Casey Research, one of the smartest groups of thinkers around on this subject, just last week warned that peak oil is an even bigger problem than the impending debt crisis, the world's 6 billion population simply can't be sustained without alternatives to oil being developed soon. Hopefully market forces will minimize the transition, whether it's to electric cars, natural gas, liquid ammonia, or something else...it's not going to be oil powering transporation forever though. We need to save what's left for manufacturing, air and sea travel, and military uses, but the developing countries like China and India will gobble it up first.

He was quoted as stating that "competent physicists, chemists, chemical engineers and men knowledgeable of thermodynamics have known that natural petroleum
does not evolve from biological materials since the last quarter of the 19th century

Follow the money, by keeping us in the dark as to how much Oil there really is the bustards can keep continually raising the price on this "dwindling resource"

I swear is there NOTHING people wont do to decieve and line their greedy pockets???

I'd like to drop the peak oil thing, people just won't get it until it's in such short supply that there's rationing in order to protect supplies for the military, since China has locked up imports in contracts from the dwindling remaining supplies. I think that's coming in 5 years or so, along with $6 gas or higher.

This Goldman Sachs story is huge. Congrats to the SEC for having the nerve to stand up to the almighty gods of Wall Street. Now we finally have a trigger for a mild decline that might last more than a few hours.