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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #121

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I read that book by Martin Zweig, Winning on Wall Street. It's one of the better ones for sure.

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  3. #122

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk


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  5. #123

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm almost down to page 3 so better post something......

    Latest from Martin Armstrong, now down to writing with pen and paper...

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files...m-the-Hole.pdf

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files...isis-31310.pdf

    Arch Crawford is still predicting doom this summer....

    http://podcast.streetiq.com/streetiq...ChannelID=3130

    I'm looking for 1228-1242 by 5/20/2010, but considering how bad I'm doing in my NCAA bracket, don't listen to me.

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  7. #124

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I'm looking for 1228-1242 by 5/20/2010, but considering how bad I'm doing in my NCAA bracket, don't listen to me.
    Don't feel bad Tsunami, theres a guy in our office who picked 0 correct after day 1.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  9. #125

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkFE View Post
    Don't feel bad Tsunami, theres a guy in our office who picked 0 correct after day 1.
    Now that takes talent! I wish I'd stayed with my original picks. At the last minute I watched some online videos on Yahoo where "experts" were making their predictions, and as a result I switched 5 picks. I ended up getting ALL FIVE of those wrong! I would have had 25 right but instead only got 20. Just shows that sports is a lot like the markets, and the "experts' don't have a clue any more than we do.

    Go Lobos!

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  11. #126

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Even Captain Hook is turning bullish:

    "my resolve regarding equities/commodities/precious metals moving higher due to liquidity escaping the bond markets(s) has grown stronger. In fact, in this regard we could be on the very cusp of an extreme inflation in equities as money flees bonds, which is a page not many are on yet, or are afraid to speak of with any degree of certainty"
    http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/...2010/0322.html

    Further consolidation is likely here, maybe down to the low 1140's, but I'm staying long and strong for now. I got an early warning signal of a top last week though. After 6 months of nagging my wife she finally let me move her TSP out of G and into C/S. When I start seeing more of that by people that aren't being nagged, it's time to bail out.


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  13. #127

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    This is the most hated bull market in history and with $500 billion in those bond funds this ride could last for years. So I say let the equity bubble grow and grow. With all the available liquidity in the marketplace and nowhere for money to make money to get a real return except in stocks. My boat is loaded.

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  15. #128

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I like the chart below posted in this link http://safehaven.com/article-16210.htm by Birchtree.



    Look at what the market did in November when it hit that upper trend line. There are still a lot of people looking for the 10% drop to get rich shorting, but if we get a repeat of that pattern from here it should chop it's way higher and higher up that trendline, frustrating the shorts over and over. And looking closer, in the November to January timeframe it chopped higher for about 2 months, and about 3 to 4% higher.....hmmm, two months from now is right about May 20th, and 3-4% higher is right about 1228, the 61.8% retracement target. Then comes a drop down to that lower line into June, then the final rally into August.

    Rinse, lather, repeat.

    My roadmap for as long as it lasts: http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/adt...echo-pdf-1.pdf

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  17. #129

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Referring back to my post #107 and Brian Pretti's article, the 50 day simple moving average is now at 1118.1 and rising only very slowly, and 5% above that is 1174. So yesterday's 1180 was a stretch too far for the computer's comfort and that's probably why there was a sharp reversal lower. Until we're further beyond the Jan/Feb correction to where those lower numbers aren't part of the 50dma equation, I think that's further evidence that we should just chop sideways to slightly higher for the next few weeks. Earnings season will probably be characterized as very good overall, so with the media focussed on that there won't be any reason for a big drop unless some Black Swan comes along. Then once the 50dma turns up steeper in mid/late April, we can get a stronger push up like the one from mid-December to mid-January, right up to around 5/20. I'm guessing Tom's suggestion today that we may only see drops down to the 20dma (followed by bounces back up to about 5% above the 50dma) and not much worse is correct. So I don't think a surge to 1200 is imminent, but who knows. A drop to around 1150 is quite possible though...although here comes another Monday so maybe it has to wait a couple days. I'm looking forward to finally going into a month being in the market, so I'll be able to do the old out then back in timing trick, and I plan to look for one of those days when the S&P is stretched to 5% over the 50dma to do it, then curse the TSP Board for the last 4 hours of the day with my fingers crossed hoping it doesn't collapse into the close.

    We'll see. Probably a good time to get out and do some yardwork like Birchtree for a few weeks.

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  19. #130

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I'm looking forward to finally going into a month being in the market, so I'll be able to do the old out then back in timing trick,

    Same here and that's the only reason I'm still in this market.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  21. #131

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Ah ha, no wonder I'm getting so many hits on my thread, it's tsunami awareness week: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=19&sid=1920071

    These grumblings about federal worker pay cuts won't go away: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=15&sid=1917360

    Obamacare for feds info: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=22&sid=1918412

    So...I noticed the S&P peaked at 1174 today, right on that 5% above the 50dma mark...also notice a potential head and shoulders pattern over the last few days, with the head at 1180, the neckline at 1165...that puts the target if it comes to fruition at 1150ish. Bingo. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EG...l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Anybody who got out today may be very upset by the close Monday, but with some luck the fall could drag out a couple more days.

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  23. #132

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Two scary looking potential head and shoulder patterns....

    30 year bonds, about two-thirds down this page...
    http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/...2010/0326.html

    Target for the Dow would be below 1000....many index's worldwide sport this pattern and point to zero...



    Eric Sprott interview:
    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...ic_Sprott.html

    The clock is ticking, less than 5 months now to the T-theory predicted late August peak. If that happens it could mirror the 1929 peak:


    Lots of fun for chart nerds here: http://www.chartsrus.com/

    A very busy day for headline writers....

    http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed...mbargo4633.gif

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