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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1201

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Why not post all the variations of your system on the AutoTracker like JTH does? Then you can see at a glance how the various systems are doing real time.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  3. #1202

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    TS, may I ask what is your 'regular system'? Sounds like a winner, thanks!


    WS
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  5. #1203

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Cactus - I actually started to do that back in late December, but the system was rejecting my chosen username. I took that as an omen and started it up over at another website, but as I suspected would happen I run into problems with the firewall at work (combined with forgetting to bring my cell phone), and worse just forgetting to update it. I'll probably need to wait until I retire to do that.

    Whipsaw - Yep, it's definitely a winner system. I'm slowly working toward getting it online, but this annoying thing called a job gets in the way of making quick progress. I'm hoping to take it live by the end of the year and I'm getting close to being ready to download WordPress and start working on the site itself... the domains are purchased, tsptiming.com for TSP folks, and a companion site for the rest of the world with a system using ETFs that mimics the TSP system (e.g., using AGG for the F fund, SPY or VOO for C fund, VXF for the S fund, and IEFA for the I fund (IEFA mirrors the I fund about as well as EFA and has done slightly better than EFA since its inception)...that site will be etftiming.com and I'll probably start that one up in 2017. Basically the systems are seasonal strategies on steroids, I've developed four systems, starting with a very basic seasonal strategy (e.g. the I fund does best in April, so just go 100% I fund in April), then different things are added/layered onto it which improve performance, even including a little lunar lunacy thrown in...that part is weird to me but it really works during the slower trading times of the year. Overall, since 2004, the best performing strategy has averaged finishing at the 13.2% level of the tracker, and has never finished in the bottom half. Right now I'm waiting to see if my bear market system works for the 3rd time this century...if it doesn't (if the S&P and other index's advance to record highs), then I have some rethinking to do and might just throw that system out the window...especially since the 2nd best "Hybrid" system is about to overtake the Bull/Bear system in overall performance since January 2004, EFA just needs to go up another 1.5% to surpass it....but I'm still hoping for that holy grail system that times market tops & bottoms pretty well, so I'm rooting for my Bull/Bear system to prevail soon...but if it's gonna work, the market needs to start falling, like right now!, and it's just not happening...it looks like the bulls are going to win the battle...maybe when that "T" runs out next week (chart #1B Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com) things will start happening for the bears...but by then we'd be at record highs. Ever interesting.

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  7. #1204

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    A possible scenario.... the market meanders sideways to a bit higher into the Fed announcement on 4/27, then we see a sell the news reaction to the dovish statement.

    This is supported by the T's that expire on 4/26 and 4/27 (charts #1B, 2, and 3): Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

    And also ties perfectly to the seasonality of bonds which typically take off in late April...
    10-Year Notes: Equity Clock » 10 Year U.S. Treasury Notes Futures (TY) Seasonal Chart
    30-Year Bonds: Equity Clock » 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bonds Futures (US) Seasonal Chart

    So with the weakening economy, will the Fed be so dovish that they drive rates down to all-time lows?

    Sell in May and go away? Was QQQ's swoon Friday a warning shot? If not, there could be a parabolic move to 2200.

    Interesting that the current financial stress situation looks a lot like the Fall of 2007:
    Chart of the Day: With Stocks Near All-Time Highs, Financial Stress Turns Negative | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

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  9. #1205

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Sounds quite reasonable TS. I've been reading a lot of stuff about the CB's in financial blogs (most of it sounds conspiratorial). There are those that say the central banks will keep pushing the market higher until the big boys have sold and the little guy is all in, or until the banks have amassed enough to cover their energy loan requirements and dividends, or to make sure that Dems win the election, as well as create some type of surefire liquidity flow that allows the bank to continue to make enough to cover the debt. That is a big set of objectives. But if any of it is true, the market will likely continue to go parabolic to pivot 2185 before we see the next big CB decision (so potentially, we could see another month bullish month). Is it possible that the tsunami wave from 1810 will extend and crest even higher? I've read from several of the EW charters that it has already extended to 11 waves since mid Feb.

    I'm considering a change in the way I play this market. Since last November, roughly 80% of the trades I have considered or acted upon have all had much risk. I've been pulling the trigger too soon and I got stung in Nov-mid-Feb. In md-Feb, I placed too much faith in EW and not the trend. Time to change my thinking. If this bull is going to continue climbing for a bit longer, I will wait until the trend establishes itself and then play. I have no intention of jumping in hopes of catching the trend....not when there is a potential tsunami cresting. I like what Tony Caldero has been saying the last 3 weeks "Trade what's in front of you."

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #1206

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Potential targets for a pullback include 2030 and 2022...

    Weekly Forecast: Week of April 25th, 2016

    24042016

    I'm trying to figure out if I should bail out on the F fund, but looking back to what happened after the last Fed announcement on 3/16, that's when it took off in what looks to me a like a wave 3 up, and the recent pullback looks like a wave 4 to me. So I'll likely hold until I see that wave 5 up I expect.

    Ed Carlson says last week was a significant top...

    That's all Folks! | Ed Carlson | Safehaven.com

    And you can always count on Tim Wood to be super bearish...

    An Extended 4-Year Cycle | Tim Wood | Safehaven.com


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  13. #1207

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Looks like now is the time if the bears are going to take back control of the market. I can now count 5 waves down and 3 waves up since last weeks top, time for a big move down.
    The timing works out for the bears since the T's are expiring...
    Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com
    And plenty of other evidence supports a top here...
    https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/2...-the-evidence/
    And it's time for the sell in May and go away crowd to make their move...meanwhile, the F fund keeps dropping, argh. Historically, the G fund is the place to park in May and June, and I'm getting close to giving up on bonds and going that route....but I'll hold out for the Fed to save me tomorrow.

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  15. #1208

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    F Fund trying to find support: I'm thinking maybe a move to G Fund on Friday if a signal doesn't come before then with the Central banks discussing more negative interest rates abroad.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by Bquat; 04-26-2016 at 10:57 AM.
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  17. #1209

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Have my eye on the S Fund and it's not setting any higher highs yet either:
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  19. #1210

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    As I've pointed out multiple times recently, today marks the end of several advance-decline line and McClellan Oscillator T's, and right on cue the markets are starting to tumble.

    I don't full understand this, but apparently his "mini-crash" is a drop of about 150 S&P points down to around the May options expiration.
    A Potential Mini Crash Wave is on The Horizon | Ian Thijm | Safehaven.com

    That works for me since I will remain happily in the F fund until the Fed induced bond rally runs out of steam in May.

    The lemmings are all pushing toward the cliff now. Tomorrow could be ugly and I'm looking for the next low at around 2012 next week, then continued stair-stepping lower.

    15 Warning Signs of Possible Market Top, Recession Next Year | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

    Edit: LOL, I thought FB was the last hurrah, make that Amazon today. Can AMZN save the market? I doubt it.
    Last edited by Tsunami; 04-28-2016 at 03:06 PM.

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  21. #1211

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    The most important development today I think is that the US dollar has finally dropped a bit below last August's low. That completes what looks like a huge wave 4 that lasted over a year, leaving it free to reverse higher any time now. A rising dollar could add additional pressure on the stock markets, right at a point where the waves show the bears can bring down the market very hard here in a wave 3. Will the dip buyers save the day again? Seems like that money will be drying up now that we're into May.

    $USD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

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  23. #1212

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Cancelled my IFT...maybe tomorrow depending on the reaction to the jobs report.

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