Page 57 of 57 FirstFirst ... 747555657
Results 673 to 684 of 684

Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

  1. #673

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default Re: Nordic's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    If I had another IFT I would have done the same and been right there with you. Good luck! I decided that the F fund is running on fumes now and bailed to G instead today.
    I did the same for my wife's TSP and moved from F to G (she's now at +7.21% for the year since I was more patient with one of the moves in January in her account).
    Agreed, the F fund appears to be getting stretched, at least on the charts. My move was more on a gut feeling than anything on the charts, we've seen these corrections play out where it drops, hits a key support level (possibly 100 or 200 DMA?), and then bounces...before resuming down in a wave C move. I don't plan on staying long, before a likely move to the G fund possibly before Friday and my last IFT for Feb. This sucker could also sink another 2-3% before a wave B bounce, we'll see. Best of luck.

    sc.jpg
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  2.  
  3. #674

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default updated wave count

    A lot has changed since my last post a month ago, and I have a pretty good ass whuppin' to show for it. The lack of any follow through on the few bounces we've seen has made it difficult, with the 2-3 monthly IFTs we have, to make an easy exit. Daneric's longer term wave analysis was indicating this current Bear market was approaching, but the Covid-19 crisis seemed to expedite the arrival of this massive decline. What's concerning to me, is that we could only be nearing the end of wave (1) of 5 DOWN! At this point I don't see how we revisit the highs of a month ago, now that we are in a bear market. It's not clear if today was wave 4 (of 1) up, or possibly the beginning of wave (2) up...either way, difficult decisions lie ahead to start chipping away at the losses from this brutal month. Covid-19 is wreaking havoc, and this country is still in the early stages of it.

    For the first time in my federal career, I have to admit I'm starting to consider other investment options outside of TSP, primarily because of the relative lack of flexibility for moving funds around. I have a lot of homework to do on what's available.

    Updated wave count:

    WLSH 10 MINUTE.png

    Big picture:

    WLSHWeekly.png

    S&P 500 chart:

    sc.png
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  4.  
  5. #675

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Rocky Mountain High
    Posts
    6,960

    Default Re: updated wave count

    Same here. Maybe it's hindsight, but these wild moves, with little flexibility has me reconsidering staying in the TSP once I retire.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.


  6.  
  7. #676

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: updated wave count

    I have an account with Vanguard; its member owned so very little in the way of commissions and fees to pay. With electronic delivery of prospectus and other docs, its pretty much free. Had if for a month or so, still trying to figure some of it out. I've bought a few funds... working on stocks.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

  8.  
  9. #677

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default Re: updated wave count

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    I have an account with Vanguard; its member owned so very little in the way of commissions and fees to pay. With electronic delivery of prospectus and other docs, its pretty much free. Had if for a month or so, still trying to figure some of it out. I've bought a few funds... working on stocks.
    Good to know. Did you put any of your TSP funds into your Vanguard account?
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  10.  
  11. #678

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: updated wave count

    No, put in funds I pulled from another investment company that was taking 1% of my balance, regardless of what it earned, which really annoyed me.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

  12.  
  13. #679

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default wave count

    For those who are still looking for a more palatable exit or adventurous enough trying to time the wave 2 retracement, here's Daneric's updated counts as of yesterday:

    Daneric's Elliott Waves


    5.png

    WLSH 10 MINUTE.png

    WLSHWeekly.png
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  14.  
  15. #680

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default now it gets interesting

    Looking at the charts, it appears we are nearing (or possibly reached today) the end of retracement Wave 2, which reached the bottom of the previous bull market trend line. I was very tempted to jump into equities last Friday to catch the end of Wave 2, but with only two IFTs and being very early in the month, I decided to hold off until Wave 2 concluded and Wave 3 unfolded...which could be a wild ride if history is any indication. A number of analysts are following similar wave counts and a deeper downward move (Wave 3) is expected in the near future, we shall see. Here are a couple of video links and a couple of charts to consider. Caution is warranted, just my take.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-D8boUqneAI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRypPQ1dscI

    S&P 500 (C Fund)
    sc.png

    VIX
    sc (1).png
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  16.  
  17. #681

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,454

    Default Re: now it gets interesting

    Nordic, Just one note on your post. Peter doesn't know much about Elliott Wave analysis and he called this a potential wave "2". That hopefully can't be correct since if it was then the following wave 3 down (which can't be shorter than wave 1 and are typically 162% of wave 1) would take the index's nearly to zero by the time you got through the following wave 4 and 5 (wave 5's are typically the same length as wave 1). We'd be lamenting the end of America as we knew it at that point. I think what we just had in Feb/Mar was an initial ABC "zig-zag" correction (note also that there is no clear wave 4 in the crash, so that helps make it clear to me that it was a 3-wave decline) and now we're in a 3-wave counter-trend rally, a wave X or whatever you want to call it, but it doesn't look impulsive so far. So that tells me that a second ABC fall is coming, perhaps down to the 1700-1800 area that many gurus were looking for, there's no way to know...that second big fall would make the whole thing a "double zig-zag" in Elliott wave slang...then either that would be the bottom, or we'd see another similar 3-wave counter-trend correction up like the one we're in now, call that one a wave Y...then comes yet another big 3 wave drop. Within the 3 wave drops the wave A's and C's have 5 waves within them, but when the market is going straight down in a free fall you often can't see those waves clearly. This is how bear markets stair-step their way down, and makes them very hard to trade since you don't know how many of those steps down there will be. The best way to trade them is to identify clear corrective rallies, then establish short positions for the next plunge, which I'll be doing sometime between today and Monday....if my TSP was in an IRA then I'd be buying something like SH to short the market rather than being stuck in the G fund. In my smaller play accounts I go with the 2x or 3x leveraged ETFs, or QQQ puts or TVIX...that's all been working well for me so far this year. At some point it seems that that QQQ needs to capitulate along with the rest of the market, so that's what I'm looking to see for a more likely bottom.

  18.  
  19. #682

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default levels to watch

    I jumped back into equities (C Fund) yesterday based on a few different data points...oversold condition, support levels (300 DMA), distance below the H&S neckline, MACD, RSI, Slow Stochastic, and even seasonality. I've been on the sidelines most of the summer and early fall, but data and conditions indicated a decent entry point this week or possibly next. The geopolitical wildcards could still influence markets however, we'll see what happens.

    sc.png
    100 G COB 11/3/23

  20.  
  21. #683

    Default Re: levels to watch

    I’m going to be in that same boat.

  22.  
  23. #684

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default helluva week

    After an unexpectedly good week which resulted in a number of open gaps, I pulled back to the G Fund today with my first November IFT. We're also bumping into overhead resistance at the 50 DMA in addition to a possible inverse H&S neckline at the 4370ish level...we'll see if we get the formation of the right shoulder before resuming higher. While I think conditions are improving, I don't want to be lulled into complacency. I do expect to get back into equities this month, all depending on how the charts look. Seasonality is obviously still favorable, but I'm curious to see what happens when the current CR expires on the 17th and how much that moves the markets.

    sc2.png
    100 G COB 11/3/23


  24.  
Page 57 of 57 FirstFirst ... 747555657

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes