Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

Jumping back into equities, 50 C / 50 S COB today. I've been largely disengaged from the markets since the end of September and as a result I missed the entire rocket ship ride we experienced in October. I have to admit that my confidence and comfort is not great right now. I still think we are due for a much larger drop than what we saw at the end of August, and as a result I'm in ultra-conservative mode. Will we see a Santa rally this year with a rate hike staring us in the face? Looking at the larger time scale charts, we are still very near all-time highs which feels/looks more like sell territory than buy territory. Staying on my toes and ready to jump back into G fund when necessary. Good luck.

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Making an IFT COB today to 100% S Fund from a mixed allocation based on the S Fund's recent performance. I'm not sure how long I'll stay invested as we typically see some mid-December weakness before a Santa rally, assuming we get a Santa rally again this year. Depending on what happens, I'll consider jumping to safety in the G fund either late this week or early next week. The DWCPF chart (S Fund) is indicating we could still move a bit higher before we see a pullback away from the upper BB. The Fed FOMC meeting is scheduled to take place Dec. 15-16, which may be a good time to get back into equities for the Santa rally. With a likely interest rate hike announcement at the Fed meeting, I'll be curious to see how much of the rate hike has already been priced into this market. Best of luck.

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Crappy way to start the month, but based on the DWCPF chart basically at the lower BB, maybe we're ready for a bounce soon. I don't know what to think of next week's Fed meeting, it seems like it could go either way in terms of price action, so I'm thinking of possibly staying invested through next week...I'm not sure yet. We haven't seen an interest rate hike in many years, so I don't know how the market is going to react next week...perhaps it's already priced in, perhaps not. Feels like a coin flip. Bigger picture it still looks like a rounded top pattern forming in the equity charts, so we'll have to keep an eye on that. C'mon Santa, what's your ETA?

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Elliott Wave Analysis On SP500 And USDJPY | Gregor Horvat | Safehaven.com

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Nordic, What is your take on the 'Jaws of Death' pattern? (see the article on my thread...)

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Maybe some of you have noticed, but the S&P500 is nearing a Golden Cross (a technical buy signal triggered by the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day moving average) which took me by surprise a bit when I was looking at the charts this morning. The DWCPF (S Fund) has a ways to go before it reaches it's Golden Cross. Personally, I'm not inclinded to have much faith in this particular Golden Cross based on other charts, but it is interesting.

I would prefer to reside in Birchtree's realm, but I just don't get the warm fuzzies when thinking about 2016. It's been a helluva run since 2009, however we all know this ride must end eventually. I'm still not sure how much of a Santa rally we'll get before the end of the month, but I'm planning on staying invested in equities through the month. I blew my chance at missing the normal early December weakness and am now trying to catch every penny of profit the rest of the month...I believe they call that greed in some circles, and that my friends is no bueno. Greed has pinched me a few times this year and cost me some coin. Here's to a strong Santa rally, trade safe.

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I haven't posted since mid-December mainly because I was chewing on bear roast. I should have jumped out of equities during our first visit to SPX 1940, but I stayed in thinking we'd at least get to 1950...wrong-o boy-o. Looking at the charts the Slow Stoch is peaking with the current rally along with the MACD, so I'm taking advantage of today's gift and finally stepping aside for a spell. January was a doozy, but I'm hoping to slowly crawl my way back out of the hole by selling rallies such as this and buying in at lower levels during this bear market. There is still some question whether we are in fact in a bear market, at least among some pundits, so we shall see. Looks, smells, and sounds like a bear market at this point. I am a bit concerned about possibly missing additional upside here, so I'm making this IFT with some trepidation.

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Slo STO is looks like it peaking on daily chart but look at the weekly.

If today's gains hold the curve is going to go higher rather than cross, more investors jumping in tomorrow would extend it further.

I am rather optimistic for now. that could change anytime.

It's very risky given the current climate, but I jumped back into equities yesterday looking for a bounce next week following yesterday's Brexit reaction in the markets. Looking at the charts, I would have liked to have seen lower levels in the RSI and MACD before re-entering the fray, but we'll see if we get a bounce off the lower BB. At this point I'm viewing this as a quick in-and-out move with the recognition that Monday could be ugly as well. My results have sucked so far in 2016, just trying to get back into black numbers for the year. Weak seasonality, Brexit, Presidential Election year, overall market levels, and the almighty Unknowns still have me concerned going forward.

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Nice opportunistic gains since Tuesday, but I will likely jump to the G fund today before the IFT deadline.

I haven't posted in a number of months, primarily due to the fact that we've been range-bound since July and there didn't seem to be much to comment on until we had a sharp move one way or the other. I jumped back to the lilypad on Monday as both the SPX (C Fund) and DWCPF (S Fund) had either reached or approaching the upper Bollinger Band, the RSI was close to 70, and the MACD appeared to be topping. Sure there's the possibility that both indices could run a bit further, but I was satisfied that I was able to capture most of the gains post-election and it was time to take a breather. Elliot Wave structure also indicates that we are likely nearing an important "5 of 5" wave in a predicted wave count. Feels more and more like a Sell High point on the charts, we shall see. Good luck and transfer wisely.

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I've been in the F Fund since the beginning of the year primarily because we are still near all-time highs (buy low, sell high mentality), geo-political unrest, and simple distrust in the markets...we are overdue for a correction. I still have the same sentiment, but am willing to attempt short term entries to gain some percentage tenths. It might be for just a few days depending on how equities perform. 100 S Fund COB today, looking for an oversold bounce in the near term.


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