Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

"EARNINGS FOCUS: Company earnings will be an important focus for the market in the coming weeks. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report that average earnings-per-share shrank by 3.1 percent in the first quarter, according to S&P Capital IQ. If the forecast proves accurate, it will be the first time since 2009 when the U.S. economy was emerging from the Great Recession that earnings have contracted."

"Oil companies are suffering from a big drop in oil prices and a rising dollar will crimp profits for big multi-national companies that make a lot of sales overseas.THE QUOTE: "If the U.S. market is going to advance this year, it's going to need to advance mostly on the back of earnings," said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock. "That has been a struggle so far.""

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sto...152854782.html


Decreasing earnings, decreasing oil, and what appears to be coiling equities charts are enough for me to pull the plug for the time being. Nice start to the year, no need to get greedy at this point.

DWCPF chart...S Fund.

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I'll continue to lean bearish while we are at these elevated levels, although there may be some corrective upswings we can take advantage of with our limited IFTs. Safe trading.


"The giant bearish Rising Wedge in the S&P500 index shown on its 8-year chart below is now closing up rapidly and looks set to force a breakdown soon. While an upside breakout is possible, it looks highly unlikely, for a variety of other reasons that we will look at shortly. The top line of this Wedge is certainly of importance as the index has retreated from it on several occasions."

US Stockmarkets Update - Getting Scarier by the Day | Clive Maund | Safehaven.com

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“I had a terrifying moment this week when I was at the dentist and it didn’t have to do with my teeth at all,” he says. “I was walking out of the building and there was a doorman-- and he was talking about tech stocks, what he was buying and what he was selling.”

Serwer says the frightening part was that it reminded him of another time-- right before the dot-com bubble burst.
“I haven’t seen that kind of a conversation since 1999,” he explains. “Where it becomes cocktail fodder.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/r-i-p-...173605287.html

Originally Posted by Nordic

“I had a terrifying moment this week when I was at the dentist and it didn’t have to do with my teeth at all,” he says. “I was walking out of the building and there was a doorman-- and he was talking about tech stocks, what he was buying and what he was selling.”

Serwer says the frightening part was that it reminded him of another time-- right before the dot-com bubble burst.
“I haven’t seen that kind of a conversation since 1999,” he explains. “Where it becomes cocktail fodder.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/r-i-p-...173605287.html

I get what they want to communicate.

I wouldn't lump all 'doormen' and "shoe shine boys" [I quote from the video clip] that discuss stocks together as being market-challenged, just as I wouldn't assume all 'traders' that discuss stocks together as being market-savvy.

Consider this 'parking attendant.'

Meet Mr. Earl. Mr. Earl is not just a parking lot attendant, he’s also an investment and saving guru. Earl has had this job for decades, and is known for “preaching the gospel of investing.” He has never earned more than $12 dollars an hour or $20,000 per year. His net worth is over half a million dollars from his investing.

Parking Lot attendant makes just $12 an hour and is worth $500,000 – Financial Juneteenth

I like it. That guy will be able to retire some day, when he decides he's had enough of parking other people's cars. good for him.

I took half off the table today, mostly based on levels of the VIX and bumping up against the Upper Bollinger Band. I think there's still a good chance we go a bit higher this week, so I left some in the two recently higher performing funds C & I. All time highs and seasonality (May) are also factoring into my decision.

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I'm going 100% I Fund COB today. This is strictly a chartology move based on what I see below...hitting lower BB, MACD at lower levels as well as RSI near the 30 buy level. I'm never completely comfortable going 100 I Fund, so we'll see how this goes in the coming days. I think there is still more pain to come in June, and I may be using all my IFT bullets earlier in the month than I would like. Good luck

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Dang, the EFA is currently up 2.18% today with about half hour to go till IFT deadline. Very tempting to take that and run, but there's so much of the month left and I'd be sitting in G for the next three weeks. Tough call, and there's definitely room to run to the top of the BB.

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It's a good time to look at some KRE. Small banks are on a roll.

I decided to exit to the G Fund yesterday after the nice two day rally on Wed - Thur. Today is down 1% + in the I fund, so I'm glad I was able to avoid that drop. Still a volatile environment right now and I'm just looking to lock in some profits when the opportunities present themselves. Looking at the EFA (I Fund) chart below, there's still quite a bit of room for it to run to the upside if it wanted to, but the situation in Greece and the movement of the dollar are glaring uncertainties that may suppress the I Fund in the short term...time will tell. Will wait for the next batch of IFTs in July and see how things are looking then. The SPX (C Fund) chart looks similar, but may be a safer play if you're looking at staying in equities through the rest of the month. Good luck

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Good tactical move and great info!

Packer/Badger Fan? I was born and raised north of LaCrosse and left the area 29 years ago for the career - Forever a cheese head!