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Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

  1. #661

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Wisconsin
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    704

    Default short-term entry

    The SPX got down to 2628 before bouncing up from that level this morning, my thought is this might be close enough to the 2625-2600 level for a short-term play here. Don't know how long I'll stay in, possibly just a day or two depending on the rebound. 100 C Fund COB.

    untitled.png
    100 G COB 03/25/20

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  3. #662

    Default Re: short-term entry

    An AC/DC song comes to mind. Good luck!

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  5. #663

    Join Date
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    704

    Default entry

    Well, I botched my last exit the end of October and pulled out way too early after actually timing my entry nicely...I won't be quitting my day job anytime soon . I'm still bearish in the intermediate term, but am still trying to pick up gains when the charts show decent entry points...which the current inverse H&S pattern looks to be indicating. While the SPX is still below it's 200 DMA, there appears to be a possible wave C (of 2) in progress, so we'll see. Also hoping for some holiday upside next week. Still a ton of geopolitical crap out there, which can move the markets just as much as the fundamentals and data. Best of luck in the coming week. 100 C Fund IFT today.

    S&P 500 chart:

    untitled.png

    Elliot Wave counts:

    Wilshire 60.png
    100 G COB 03/25/20

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  7. #664

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Wisconsin
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    704

    Default December

    Nice gains in the equity markets today, with many chart technicians calling for a better looking December than a couple of weeks ago. I've been reading articles and watching some videos this evening trying to get a handle on what some folks think might happen in December...and there seems to be at least some agreement that we are in the beginning stages of the next up wave, before the next big downward push possibly in January-ish. Right now I'm inclined to stay in equities and see if I can finish this year on a high note. I have to admit it's been a frustrating year, but we all know those happen occasionally...some more than others . It's sounding more likely that the Fed will employ another rate hike at their December meeting before halting for a bit and seeing what the landscape looks like early next year. Not sure if the rate hike week will be the catalyst for a wave down, but I wouldn't be surprised. 2019 is shaping up to be a very challenging year in the markets, but let's see how December finishes out first. Letting it ride 100 C fund for now.

    sc.png
    100 G COB 03/25/20

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  9. #665

    Join Date
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    704

    Default beware the bear trap

    Currently we appear to be in the last leg up (c, of an a-b-c) of Wave 2 (Wave 1 being the October lows), before the next major downward move Wave 3 begins...sometime early next year possibly. Caution and patience are critical now.

    "Bears expected the S&P 500 to break below 2,600 last week, but instead the market headed up on Monday, Henrich noted. Powell did his part to help the rally, and if Trump gets a deal with China, that would complete that bear trap, pushing gains possibly into the first quarter of next year," he said"

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ha...rap-2018-11-29
    100 G COB 03/25/20

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  11. #666

    Join Date
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    Wisconsin
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    704

    Default back to the 'pad

    I haven't posted in forever, just a quick update. I began the year in the C Fund (chart below), but the charts are indicating an overbought condition, of course I've been saying that for most of the past couple of years and it's cost me many gains . Equities have advanced uninterrupted for the past four months, just weighing the odds at this point. Best of luck!

    sc.png
    100 G COB 03/25/20


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  13. #667

    Join Date
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    Default charts

    It's been a nice run so far this month in equities, and it's possible it may continue...but at this point that charts are looking a bit short term toppy. I thought the F Fund chart looked interesting with what appears to be a well defined cup and handle pattern, which often is a bullish continuation pattern. With coronavirus continuing to be a factor, and the charts where they are I made an IFT COB today to the F Fund. Not sure for how long, we'll see what happens next week.

    S&P 500 (C Fund) chart:
    sc (1).png


    AGG (F Fund) chart:
    sc.png
    100 G COB 03/25/20

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  15. #668

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    Default negative divergence and bearish cross

    Things are getting interesting in the markets. Looking at the charts, we can see a number of negative divergences in equities as well as bearish crosses. This past week might turn out to be an important one to look back on for market analysis, time will tell. The AGG (F Fund) is still looking solid, while the VIX is on the rise which is bearish for equities. I plan on staying in the F Fund for a while longer. Best of luck next week.

    SPX (C Fund)
    sc.png

    DWCPF (S Fund)
    sc (1).png

    AGG (F Fund)
    sc (2).png

    VIX
    sc (3).png

    Looking at Daneric's chart, we're getting close if not already started down on wave 4 of (5).
    WLSH2.jpg
    100 G COB 03/25/20

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  17. #669

    Default Re: negative divergence and bearish cross

    Thanks for posting!

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  19. #670

    Join Date
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    Default Re: negative divergence and bearish cross

    We'll just keep each other company in (F).
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  21. #671

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    Default Re: Nordic's Account Talk

    Looking for a short- term oversold wave B bounce at these levels. Might only be for a day or two as I think there's more room to the downside before we find a bottom. IFT 100 S Fund COB today.

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  23. #672

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Nordic's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Nordic View Post
    Looking for a short- term oversold wave B bounce at these levels. Might only be for a day or two as I think there's more room to the downside before we find a bottom. IFT 100 S Fund COB today.
    If I had another IFT I would have done the same and been right there with you. Good luck! I decided that the F fund is running on fumes now and bailed to G instead today.
    I did the same for my wife's TSP and moved from F to G (she's now at +7.21% for the year since I was more patient with one of the moves in January in her account).

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
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Nordic's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
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Nordic's Account Talk
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