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Thread: PessOptimist's Account Talk

  1. #469

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    After two months the daring venture of putting 20% in S fund has mixed but overall good results.

    Good result is that my graph I created years ago is going up slightly again after going down slightly every month since I started withdrawals in July 19. Mixed news is I started updating the TSP spreadsheet every day. I get to track daily, monthly and yearly profit or loss. Up and down lately. Overall creeping up so far.

    I once read on this MB that if you don’t know why you are moving funds, don’t. I had allowed this to immobilize me because I really don’t know. Plus isn’t it prudent to put everything in G when you retire? That was OK when G was paying 2.5+% but not so much now.

    I was motivated to put 20% in S fund on 5/31 by a plan I could understand. Not perfect as the STO and MACD are so close now and RSI is over 50. Then came the SMA envelope which I had never heard of. Not sure how to use it. Still above it.

    Why 20%. Has to do with actual money amount. I promised to leave a certain amount in G no matter what. Unless it goes negative, we don’t know what TSP will do then. Probably leave the principle alone unless they run short on booze in the board room.

    Why S fund? S or C, never liked I. S ups and downs give me more excitement in my life.

    For now I appear to be a buy and holder at 20% S fund. But I think I know why. I would love to buy low, sell high. I just need to figure out how to do it.

    PO

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  3. #470

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Another comment on deciding to make a move in the TSP. If it is up at 1200EDT I don’t want to miss gains. If it is down at 1200EDT I don’t want to sell at a loss. By 1600EDT it will be wherever it is. No way of knowing these days.

    Since I am on MST my cutoff for a move is 0900 and market close is at 1300. My solution to indecision is to not turn on the computer until after 0900 and sometimes not till 1300. No reason to get out of bed then since other stuff can wait.

    PO

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  5. #471

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist View Post
    Another comment on deciding to make a move in the TSP. If it is up at 1200EDT I don’t want to miss gains. If it is down at 1200EDT I don’t want to sell at a loss. By 1600EDT it will be wherever it is. No way of knowing these days.PO
    I was wondering if there were any general rules of thumb, like if 80% of the time it is up by 1% at 1130 (EDT) if it is usually still up at closing? I doubt there are statistics on it readily available (only TSP traders would care?) but if at least we could make an "educated" guess, that might make me feel better. Maybe I will try to keep stats for a month or two... Or I could just let be will be.

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  7. #472

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    It's a Grand Complication and can change on a dime. I can't explain it after all these years trying. That's why I don't give my opinion of what to do.ugly%20man%20laugh.gif



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  9. #473

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist View Post
    Another comment on deciding to make a move in the TSP. If it is up at 1200EDT I don’t want to miss gains. If it is down at 1200EDT I don’t want to sell at a loss. By 1600EDT it will be wherever it is. No way of knowing these days.

    Since I am on MST my cutoff for a move is 0900 and market close is at 1300. My solution to indecision is to not turn on the computer until after 0900 and sometimes not till 1300. No reason to get out of bed then since other stuff can wait.

    PO
    PO,
    I never understood the 12 noon cut off for an IST since it is such a disadvantage for those west of the Eastern Time Zone. My guess is that the majority of TSP accounts are in the Eastern Time Zone, but that doesn't make it right. Sure glad I'm not stationed in Hawaii because I would have to decide before 6am local time if I want to make an IFT or not.
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #474

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    PO,
    I never understood the 12 noon cut off for an IST since it is such a disadvantage for those west of the Eastern Time Zone. My guess is that the majority of TSP accounts are in the Eastern Time Zone, but that doesn't make it right. Sure glad I'm not stationed in Hawaii because I would have to decide before 6am local time if I want to make an IFT or not.
    My guess is that they limit us to make moving our money around seem less desirable.
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  13. #475

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerray View Post
    My guess is that they limit us to make moving our money around seem less desirable.
    Yep!



  14.  
  15. #476

    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    BINGO! Thars a perfect example of the "Nanny" state for ya! Now children, listen to me and obey! The IFT limits are for your own good! DON'T ask any questions-- we know what's best! Shush and be quiet or you will be punished! Get used to more of that folks....hummm...we will see what happens in a few more months..
    Quote Originally Posted by rangerray View Post
    My guess is that they limit us to make moving our money around seem less desirable.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  17. #477

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    I was wondering if there were any general rules of thumb, like if 80% of the time it is up by 1% at 1130 (EDT) if it is usually still up at closing? I doubt there are statistics on it readily available (only TSP traders would care?) but if at least we could make an "educated" guess, that might make me feel better. Maybe I will try to keep stats for a month or two... Or I could just let be will be.
    This intraday chart is related to your question. I've seen this pattern a zillion times where the market tends to peak around 9:50 am eastern time, when the initial buying frenzy runs out of steam...and the low for the day is often around 2:30 pm, then it's up from there...

    https://www.seasonalcharts.com/intra..._dowjones.html


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  19. #478

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Thanks for that! Of course I am trying to correlate an 11:30 price to a closing price (wishful thinking) and that chart would indicate that, on average, prices will be higher at the end of the day than at 11:30 but it is obviously difficult to tell if it is skewed by some significant end of day runups. Thanks for sharing!

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  21. #479

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Happy Friday everyone.

    It was nice to have dodged another bullet today. Well no but specifically on my whopping 20% S fund. If I were more gutsy I would have more money in equities.

    Reflecting on the 21+ years my TSP has existed, I read and hear stuff stating I should have $1 million+ there. Based on the max contributions allowed I suppose that is possible. If I had been a better investor.

    I am willing to bet I am not the only one who has friends of second cousins of friends of spouses who make statements like that. Most never dealt with TSP trading restrictions and most have a suggestion for an investment firm I should have gone with. One that makes me chuckle a bit says I could have had a TSP while in the military if I had wanted to. I was in 72-96 so I must have missed that.

    Happy Friday evening all and I deal with what I deal with and try to ignore most of it.

    Just whining about stuff.

    PO

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  23. #480

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    Default Re: PessOptimist's Account Talk

    Thanks tom4jean for posting this link.

    Elliott_Trader: Paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Rules for Trading.

    After reading it I see it states it is for futures trading only. The definitions should apply in after the fact trading. I think. Those of us only in TSP for equities cannot be day traders so maybe we can be swing traders? This has been addressed before but I am too lazy to go look for it.

    Obviously TSPers must make their moves before 1200EST so must boot up the Ouija board about 1100 EST in case it has updates to download. Then it is often wrong. Flipping a coin may be almost as good.

    The indicators in the link are very valuable. Helps me understand what some are posting about. I looked for imbedding and unembedding a lot but nowhere did it say in simple terms Slow Stochastic over 80 or under 20 for three consecutive days. Then the definition for unembedding is ambiguous. Does one day do it?

    Bottom line for me is for the very first time I understand that embedding refers to the slow stochaistic. Hard to find that explanation for dummies.

    Putting 20% in the S fund has been successful so far. The goal as I stated is to continue to take annual withdrawals from TSP but to see if I can keep it at the amount it was the day I retired. Maybe I am not aiming high enough.

    Thanks for everything all of you posted on the MB. It all helps.

    PO

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