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Thread: WorkFE's Account Talk

  1. #2545

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    Default Re: WorkFE's Account Talk

    Lots of folks make money in these conditions, its just riskier.
    When it comes to TSP, because of the limits, you have to take big risk or little monthly bites in these conditions. Over the course of a year those bites add up and I'm okay with that.
    Many of times I've made moves in relation to news, regardless of the market indicators.
    Don't tell anyone but I also follow the herd sometimes.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  3. #2546

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    Default Re: WorkFE's Account Talk

    Bull to Bear, are we there yet.
    By definition we haven't crossed that line yet but the Bears are definitely in charge at the moment.
    In my estimation we would need to get to about 21,500 (DJIA) to signal a bear market. That doesn't mean we are not in one already. If you're in the garage and we are headed there then you're in a safe place.

    For those new to putting money away for their future:
    The Dow reached 14,164.43 on October 9, 2007. It plummeted 80 percent to 6,594.44 on March 5, 2009. It didn't regain its pre-recession high until March 11, 2013, when it hit 14,254.38. Boy does that seem like a life time ago.

    When the TSP board cautions folks from trading, for the most part, it is for your own good. If you don't follow the markets continuously, with a smidgen of intelligence, be balanced, be nimble and for goodness sake don't Buy high then sell low. However there are times when it is acceptable to eat the loss but you have to really understand where the market is going. Time is your friend when you are caught on the wrong side of a slide, correction or Bear Market.

    For the record, I have been in the garage for a few months. Market seemed overheated to me. In hindsight it was a good move but it was just luck. No reason to panic yet, just keep March 5, 2009 in the back of your mind.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  5. #2547

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    Default Re: WorkFE's Account Talk

    Just to add to my earlier post. Full disclosure, I am NOT one of those folks with a smidgen of intelligence in the markets. I read a lot, follow the herd and take a bunch of guesses.

    Not all bear markets are born the same way but they all cause an emotion, Fear.
    Personally, because the current economic conditions look healthy, I believe that what is driving this train is the height of the market has investors hair raised and the FEAR of a worsening trade war. These are news cycles or bumps in the road that can easily slow any economy. Factor in that we are so intertwined as a global economy now that everything matters, definitely more so than 10 years ago.

    The government is not our savior, they can soften the landing but if the consumer stops (slows) spending then a recession is on the doorstep. I often evaluate my own spending, if I am slowing my spending, because of economic FEAR, then my neighbor could be as well.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.


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  7. #2548

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    Default Re: ift

    Nothing is safe today but man, Oil is getting crushed.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  9. #2549

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    Default Re: ift

    Probably not what some wanted to hear from the Fed, its not personal but when you're knee deep it sure feels like it.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  11. #2550

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    Default Re: WorkFE's Account Talk

    I’ve never met a person successful in the markets who wasn’t chased bythe bear at one time or another. To have good times in the markets, one needsto be able to embrace extreme turbulence.
    You got to take what it gives you, good and bad.
    For what its worth, I would try to avoid the bad ones as much as possible.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  13. #2551

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    Default Re: WorkFE's Account Talk

    With every passing day I am a bit more convinced we are headed to the 18,500 - 19,000 area of the DOW.
    I'm planning on a 3.5% 2019.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  15. #2552

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    Default Re: WorkFE's Account Talk

    For those who have been exposed for the last few months,a decision had to be made to exit. Hopefully not after all the bloodletting.

    At some point those who were sitting in the garage, needto look for an entry point. I exited C/S/I on 8/27/2018.

    C and S are running about $8 less a share today than the daysold and I fund about $5.
    How much more significant downside is left, hmmmm.From a share price sell/buy view I have the advantage. Maybe just hold until some of the fear subsides.
    Last edited by WorkFE; 12-26-2018 at 07:09 AM. Reason: Fix font
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  17. #2553

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    Default Re: ift

    I'm in a hold pattern (G) until January. Any earnings reports then should tell us quite a bit about 2019.
    Looking forward to listening to all of you in the New Year.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  19. #2554

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    Default Re: ift

    That is probably the hardest 4% I have every worked for, but I will take it. In hindsight I could have cruised in the G fund and made 75% of that.
    As I enter into the last few years of planned employment my moves will be more thought out. Although 10% or greater gains sure look nice, getting there comes with bigger risk.
    My goal for 2019 is 6%, I believe that is doable even in a down year.

    Good luck all.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  21. #2555

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    Default Re: ift

    Congrats on your 4% gain.

    I went from a positive 9% at the end of September to a minus 12% for the year. Not a loss yet but don't know how long I can wait for an uptick. Going to be a long climb out of this rabbit hole.
    May the force be with us.

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  23. #2556

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    Default Re: ift

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Not a loss yet but don't know how long I can wait for an uptick.
    A recognized loss you would like to keep from becoming a realized loss. Been there done that. I don't envy you.

    We have seen this show numerous times, Big swings from minus to plus only to be sold off in the afternoon.

    I would probably do exactly what you are doing, hold on. Surrender to fight another day is a pet peeve of mine.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.


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