Bull to Bear, are we there yet.
By definition we haven't crossed that line yet but the Bears are definitely in charge at the moment.
In my estimation we would need to get to about 21,500 (DJIA) to signal a bear market. That doesn't mean we are not in one already. If you're in the garage and we are headed there then you're in a safe place.
For those new to putting money away for their future:
The Dow reached 14,164.43 on October 9, 2007. It plummeted 80 percent to 6,594.44 on March 5, 2009. It didn't regain its pre-recession high until March 11, 2013, when it hit 14,254.38. Boy does that seem like a life time ago.
When the TSP board cautions folks from trading, for the most part, it is for your own good. If you don't follow the markets continuously, with a smidgen of intelligence, be balanced, be nimble and for goodness sake don't Buy high then sell low. However there are times when it is acceptable to eat the loss but you have to really understand where the market is going. Time is your friend when you are caught on the wrong side of a slide, correction or Bear Market.
For the record, I have been in the garage for a few months. Market seemed overheated to me. In hindsight it was a good move but it was just luck. No reason to panic yet, just keep March 5, 2009 in the back of your mind.
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