Thread: WorkFE's Account Talk

Originally Posted by WorkFE

This is one tough environment to navigate.
Thinking alot of Friday and todays action is looking at the possibility of a 75 Basis Point rise on Wednesday. If it happens the damage is done, if they go with the originally planned 50 we may get a bit of a happy dance bounce on Thursday or Friday.

Aren't the market managers asking for 75 basis points from the feds?

Yes and most agree that is the low end.

Well, the FED was worried about inflation in 2018/19. They were talking about unwinding their bonds and raising interest rates. They saw it coming and were going to act on it.

Then we had COVID.

We probably needed a bit of carry through assistance. Also, the issues presented by COVID forced a delay in FED tightening.
But, politicians simply cannot resist free money and bennies!!! They added to the money fountain. Joy. No worries.
What happened. Wat!!! Too much mullah, too few goods. I heard that heresy somewhere before.

So, now the FED has to tighten even more to take all that 'free money' out of the system.

Nothing is less free than a freebie from a politician.

This ain''t going to be good.

GLHF.

Originally Posted by Boghie

This ain''t going to be good.

.50 BPS rate hike or .75-1

My money says they get aggressive. Either way I believe the big down days, Friday and Monday, were in anticipation of these rate hikes. Regardless the market is trending down. We may get a pop day or two for those who like risky plays.

I'm outside my comfort zone for sure. Last week and Monday decided to add everything to an already risky play. My hope is we get a little more hawkish response from Fed and maybe even a 100 BP hike. I think markets would love it and we would get those few up days some of us would like to see. If they stick to their game plan of 50 I think market could quickly sell off more.

Soft landing, hard landing, controlled crash landing ....
Just land this sucker.

Originally Posted by WorkFE

Soft landing, hard landing, controlled crash landing ....
Just land this sucker.

Oh, it will land alright.
Of that we can be certain.

I'm not certain folks really comprehend what is happening. In the S-Fund we are 3/5ths of the way to a 2008/9 crash. The F-Fund is X3 the crash of 2008. The C-Fund is moving smartly and quickly to crash zone Charlie. I have actually lost more this year than I did in 2008. I wanted to keep politics out of my financial decisions. I held more risk in a nice and science based allocation than I really wanted to for longer than I wanted to. I left a good chunk of change on the table during the Obama presidency. I did not want to make that mistake again. Ugh.

Live and learn. In my current allocation I can just watch. It's too bad. There will be a LOT of poverty after this mess.

However, when this turns the rebound will boom. We will likely hit bottom and bounce around on it for quite a while. It is going to take a lot of time before investors seek risk. Why invest in something that will, say, increase oil and gas supplies if that investment can be wiped out by banana republic executive order.

I'm not a big fan of executive orders. What really makes me mad is when they are done with some items that you would think agreements could be worked out.

The blow to my stock values are somewhat muted by dividends, not so much with TSP. But like I've said, I'm only in the pool up to my knees, and even then I have floaties on.

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

Lazy days. I assume that most people who actively manage their TSP account are sitting mostly if not 100% in the G fund. Hopefully they got out early and didn't make huge losses permanent.
Is there more downside coming, maybe. But at some point I have to come out of my hiding place and remind myself that I’m not a Perma Bull or Perma Bear. I take risk, minimize value loss and never ever make them permanent.