Spartan's Account Talk

[Spartan]

Holding 5%G 5%F 20%C 30%S 40%I since January 2005

Will retire in 2010. I have been feeding this account since 1 year after I went into the military. When I am stateside I maximize contributions in order to drop into a lower tax bracket. When I am overseas (most of the time), I buy individual stocks through sharebuilders. Mostly EWZ, EWC, ILF, FXI, IAU and a few other top performers. Past couple days I have been funneling ILF funds into SLV. Bullish on silver. I have been trading for years and usually make more than I do in the military. Thats when I know it's time to retire.

Just here to offer my two cents and share tips.

[ayla]

Welcome - though I feel a bit strange welcoming since I'm rather new myself.

I see you aren't one of those who have gone over to the "darkside", i.e. 100% G. Sounds like you have a lot of experience at this investing stuff. Anytime you'd like to share your thoughts about when to sell and when to "hold em", I would be very interested to hear.

[Spartan]

Many believe that this is the time to buy into the S&P and DWCPF. It seems that the Fed has overshot their target with consecutive rate hikes. They cannot simply keep hiking in order to defend the almighty dollar without dealing a mortal blow to the economic infrastructure of the nation. With that said, the C and S funds have been all but treading water during the last month or so. Fed see's this, Fed see's all. Not only is it a possibility that Fed may pause hiking but we my soon be relieved of .25% or .50% in the future, if the economic growth slows enough.

I am bullish on the C and S funds. I am bullish on the world.

Two other issues involve Iran and Immigration. Bills which favor immigration will rally markets. 20 million new citizens will increase revenue but also prove to be the single largest burden on tax-paying citizens that this country has seen in a long time. Pro-immigration bills will rally markets, but at who's expense?

Iran. Iran will rally markets. Lets look at how Iraq influenced the S&P500 for measure. Iraq kicked off the night of 20 March 2003, a day when ^GSPC closed at 875.67. The next day markets rallied over 20 points and well over 2% to 895.79.

Iraq is 168754 sq. miles, while Iran is 636296 sq. miles. Both wars, have and will secure jobs and demand for goods and services for years to come. And when we finish in Iraq and Iran, both will be using the almighty USD as their national currency. Of this I am certain.

I am bullish.

If only we could get the illegal immigrants to fight our foreign wars in the name of the USD, we could kill three birds with Presidente Fox's pebble.

-Spartan

[Spartan]

Bullish on the Euro. Buying into I fund heavy today. If ECB makes the unexpected hike today, I could get my hand stuck in the cookie jar.

The Nikkei is feuled and ready to take off. Added with that, a higher dollar will create vast momentum for it's rise. Japanese traders have had wed, thur, and fri off. Monday they will buy until they puke yen. Bullish on ^FCHI, Bearish on ^FTSE, Neutral on ^GDAXI.

Short-term the dollar gains unless ECB hikes. Long term, ECB will hike, Fed will pause and may even relieve. JP will hike soon. Dollar will trade down to 90Y by years end.

Long wars cause a loss in faith of the USD. They must bring Iraq to a logical conclusion or everyone except those in ETF's will pay. Iran will rally US markets but cause a further decline in the "good faith of the Amerikan credit system." Make the oil flow from Iraq, institute the USD as the Iraqi currency. Then you will have the faith of the Amerikan people. Fickle is the mob who votes at the gas pump. Democracy always guarantees that the best liar is elected.

[Spartan]

Bullish on everything. Bullish on the Dow, Bullish on the ^N300, bullish on AGG. Not very bullish on the dollar though. From here we go up. Wanted to buy more I fund today but couldnt bring myself to it. Friday is up in the air. Markets could go either way. Currency could go either way.

But monday is the rally day. Wanted to be more in stocks for monday. But I will take what I am given and ride the ^N300 all the way to 360.

[Spartan]

Looks like a sell day, if Europe rallies through. Dollar is buckling up for the hike on the tenth, if big bad benny has it in him. I dont think its wise for him to hike this one, growth is slowing. I might jump out today and try to avoid the dollar regaining ground and a couple Europe downdays and get back in on the 9th. I want to be in for the 10th in case he isnt as hawkish as he'd like to think. I would think this n00bie would err on the side of caution seeing as though he's as green as the dollars he;s trying to bolster.

It's up in the air.

[Wizard]

I dont think its wise for him to hike this one,

USD is in free fall. The Fed's charter is to protect the USD NOT stock prices.

USD index is 85.35. When Helo B took over the USD was over 90. Worse yet the Dec 06 index is at 84.07.

Ouch.

This is a borrow and spend economy. If it can not borrow it can not spend. To be able to borrow you need a rising NOT falling USD. Does not make sense for foreign central bankers to borrow to get a 5% yield when the currency they purchased the debt in falls 5%. After currency exchange fees they are negative.

[Spartan]

Actually, the FED's charter is to protect economic growth, NOT the USD. That means protection from inflation or deflation. They are not supposed to hike until things break just to bolster the dollars strength. All these hikes are only temporary cover from the inevitable fall and will not attract any new money to the USD until they bang out 10%. We will not get that high, our economy cannot absorb that many hikes.

Anyhow, dollar looks down vs. yen right now. 111.97 Yen
Looks good for the International and the US. I think we will have a runup for the Dow, new highs in the next few days.

[Spartan]

Japan let the bulls out + ~1.5%

Dollar weakening.

USD -.52% vs JPY

[Spartan]

Big Ben could learn a few things...

TOKYO, May 8 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Monday that Japan's basic stance that foreign exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals remains unchanged.

"I will not comment on day-to-day movements," Tanigaki told Reuters when asked about the yen's recent rise against the dollar.

"Our basic stance is the same as always."

The dollar was trading around 112 yen early on Monday after falling to 111.88 yen, the lowest since mid-September.

[Spartan]

I will probably move 100% I fund today. Also, I have sold all of my EWC for SLV and I continue to buy FXI and EWZ

Yes, betting against the dollar would be a correct assumption.

[Spartan]

I am really excited about this week. The Japanese and European Markets are rising in unison. I think we will break through and rally from here. The dollar will give some back today and tomorrow, unless we hear some more dovish comments from BB Bernanke. But I am bullish on these markets. 100% I COB today, let her ride.