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Thread: Peterson82's Account Talk

  1. #37

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Anyone read Stephen Losey's article, "Thousands get huge raises"

    I agree with the point that a promotion should not be guarenteed, but the article reads like it is costing the government money when people promote. The way laddering works is there is a position potential (say GS-12) that is funded for a GS-12 and a manager has the option to ladder it down to get young talent (or outside talent) which will pay the employee at the GS-9 (or 11). The position is funded for the higher level, but is paying less because of the lower grade. Which is effectively a savings for that first year, and the year after with a promotion to GS-11.
    The other point is it makes it seem like people get two pay increases if they jump from 5 to 7, or 7 to 9, etc. This isnt the case because the GS scale is two pay schedules in one. There are the one-grade positions (secretaries, misc admin) that go from GS1-10, and then the two-grade positions (engineering, hr specialists, etc) that go from GS5-15 with pay increases at the 7,9,11. They use one GS scale for simplicity, but are different.

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  3. #38

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    I hear ya. I got hired and was on "probation" for one year at a lower pay grade than my position was advertised for. I easily qualified for the full pay grade but our agency brings in new hires on probation. So, last year I got a "HUGE" raise, right to the real salary my position was advertised at...except I was still at step 1 rather than step 2. As a result they are saving a Step increase every year on me.
    2011: 12.73%; 2012: 16.44 %, 2013: 17.46%, 2014: 5.35 ; Past 12 months 6.81% as of 01/31/2015


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  5. #39

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Stretching my TSPTalk legs here at the end of 2015..
    After focusing on the Fed career for the last 3-4 years, I have not paid close attention to allocations in my TSP. I hope to change that in 2016!

    Plan for 2016: Post here on all my fund transfers (probably won't post all of them before the actual trade). This will keep me focused on watching my TSP throughout the year. Anyway, just wanted to say hello and good luck to everyone in 2016!

    Retire Eligible: July 31, 2039 ;swear

    -peterson82

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  7. #40

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    It's good to see you back Peterson82, best of luck with your TSP!!
    Now let's TALK!!!
    Norman



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  9. #41

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by peterson82 View Post
    A dollar invested on Sept 18, 2000 with perfect trades every day will pass the 30 million dollar mark today...

    Equation is simple:

    (1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 9/18/2000)) * 1 = FIRST DAY
    (1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 9/19/2000)) * FIRST DAY = SECONDDAY
    ...
    (1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on ...) * Nth Day = (N+1)th Day
    ...
    (1+Max(Percent difference of ALL FUNDS on 2/1/2010)*2340th Day = $29,755,550.84

    Entirely useless, but it's something that I track for fun. And to remind myself the power of compounding and the evils of negative percentages.
    Quote Originally Posted by peterson82 View Post
    Ill break it down by significant money amounts and their dates

    9/18/2000: $1
    3/19/2001: $2.01
    3/8/2002: $10.03
    6/3/2003: $100.07
    10/5/2004: $1003.64
    7/19/2006: $10249.94
    1/28/2008: $101712.29
    11/24/2008: 1 Mill
    7/20/2009: 10 Mill

    This is the magic of compounding when your account never goes down. When your account goes down, it is harder to make up the percent difference.
    I will continue this thread, but TSP.gov no longer has data back before 2003. But this time, I will be point out dates where the one dollar investment doubles....

    (I am just doing this as an excel exercise, it has no value).
    06/02/2003: $1.00
    10/22/2003: $2.00
    03/25/2004: $4.01
    09/13/2004: $8.01
    03/24/2005: $16.03
    09/29/2005: $32.18
    03/30/2006: $64.81
    09/12/2006: $128.26
    03/29/2007: $256.57
    09/13/2007: $513.59
    01/29/2008: $1,029.34 <------Non-March date.
    05/22/2008: $2,051.94
    09/19/2008: $4,220.60
    11/07/2008: $8,400.91
    12/30/2008: $16,568.60
    03/18/2009: $32,955.63
    05/18/2009: $65,592.71
    08/28/2009: $131,553.67
    01/04/2010: $267,055.70
    05/12/2010: $528,640.75
    09/02/2010: $1,057,878.15
    01/26/2011: $2,113,786.91
    06/28/2011: $4,215,892.42
    09/26/2011: $8,530,483.95
    12/16/2011: $16,924,744.13
    05/21/2012: $33,726,495.54
    10/19/2012: $67,224,830.72
    04/29/2013: $134,768,355.80
    10/15/2013: $269,122,681.30
    04/15/2014: $538,119,506.40
    11/10/2014: $1,079,260,251
    05/08/2015: $2,183,407,008
    10/15/2015: $4,311,324,640

    An interesting thing I noticed while writing down the dates for those numbers is a pattern that emerges. Doubling almost wants to be in harmony like a beat of a drum. Can you see the first date that doesn't continue the oscillating March/Sept/March/Sept? January 2008. As we all know, 2008 was a horrendous year... perhaps this is an indication of an outlier year?

    The average time to double from 2003-2007 was 174 days. From 2008-2011 it was 103 days. From 2012-2015 it is 175 days. After 2011, the oscillation go back to twice a year.

    Just wanted to share what I was thinking today...

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  11. #42

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Hey, all.

    Since December I have created and have been testing a timing model that I whipped up. Of course, I know there is a lot of doubt that a timing system can actually be successful, however, I need to see it for myself with my own take on how to time the market (Plus I am a huge Math and Excel nerd). I will be using the Autotracker to keep track of my gains/losses, and I will also update my actual TSP account as the year goes on. I will update this account talk with any updates if you all want to follow my progress (watch it fail?!)

    I am hidden right now on the autotracker, but I accidently didn't make a trade into my system on December 31, so I started the year in the negative rather than the F-Fund. For now, I am in the F-fund until at least Friday of this week.

    I know it's wishful thinking, but I would really like to adapt the model to stocks/ETFs to invest a little bit (5%) of money from my brokerage account. Right now, it is just such a pain to update it daily that I will need to make it more automated. Anyway, I am excited about this year! I am glad to be back thinking about the TSP and the future of my investments.

    Side note, I start a new federal job on Monday the 11th. I am excited about it, but I have a feeling things will get busy. So, I will try to remember to update this site's tracker and this forum!

    -peterson82

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  13. #43

    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Past results are no guarantee of future performance. I have been trying to follow 100 yr old seasonality patterns the past four years and have been burned. Everything seems to be upside down. 2015 was the first year ending in 5 that was down in a 100 yrs. It was also one of the rare pre-election years to go down. On top of that Dec-Jan period is usually very good - but sucks this year.
    Last edited by Skorcher; 01-06-2016 at 11:15 AM. Reason: responded to wrong post

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  15. #44

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by peterson82 View Post
    ...(Plus I am a huge Math and Excel nerd)....
    I look forward to your postings.

    Just wanted to post my btw, fwiw: I too am a Math/Excel/VBA guy.

    I'm not "huge," but I could lose a few pounds.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  17. #45

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Yeah, I am like 300lbs, but "carry it well" :P

    I am in F-Fund at least until Wednesday!

    -Dan


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  19. #46

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    I'll be in F-Fund until at least Friday.

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  21. #47

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by peterson82 View Post
    I'll be in F-Fund until at least Friday.
    Same for this week. Staying in F-fund until at least Friday.

    DC has a huge snow storm planned for this Friday/Saturday, so I plan on trudging through the snow to find any restaurant or bar open and enjoy the finer things in life (beer, chips & salsa).

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  23. #48

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    Default Re: Peterson82's Account Talk

    I will remain in F-Fund through Friday.

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