Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by cedarpine

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Certainly adds more credence to the bearish case. Thanks for posting.

So where do we go from here? "G" fund, "F" fund, do some splits. I'm so confused.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

So where do we go from here? "G" fund, "F" fund, do some splits. I'm so confused.

The answer is different for each person. If one is bearish, you want to have limited (maybe none for some folks) stock exposure. G fund is safer than F fund, but safe is a relative term. Even the G fund can be risky under certain circumstances. A global financial meltdown could easily have a negative impact on just about everything (not so sure about precious metals (real money)).

Well, Wednesday's market trading didn't do much for the bullish argument. The market didn't fall apart, it just felt like it for a little while. But while it didn't fall apart, it did close out with moderate losses.

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Price on the S&P tested its 50 dma again and bounced back to close over that key average. Price on the DWCPF fell as well and remains within its trading range (the lower part of it), but also below its 50 dma. That index seems to be gearing up for another test of horizontal support. Momentum remains negative.

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Cumulative breadth fell and flipped modestly bearish today.

So, the market continues to get hit with weakness, but also continues to dance more or less in a sideways pattern. It sure is beginning to feel like a top may be in, but it's still a bit early to make that call (price will almost certainly be lower before that call might be made).

I remain bearish.

The bulls pushed the market higher on Thursday, but I don't think we have any more clarity about the days and weeks ahead.

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Both the S&P and DWCPF posted good gains. Price remained above the 50 dma on the S&P, but has yet to retest resistance at that level on the DWCPF. Momentum is trying to turn up, but it's been a struggle. RSI is near neutral on both charts.

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Cumulative breadth poked back over the 21 day EMA, which technically puts it back to a bullish condition, but it's been almost 2 weeks since this signal hit a fresh peak, so I can't get overly excited about further upside potential just yet.

NAAIM came in largely unchanged, which means they remain bearish. You might think they would be shorting the market with this reading, but they are not positioning themselves for bearish action with any conviction, so they seem to be taking a wait and see approach without taking unnecessary risk.

So, both charts continue to paint a different picture. While the S&P remains technically bullish, the DWCPF remains neutral. It can go either way, but the smart money is not leaning toward a bullish outcome. They are also not confident enough in their sentiment to bet on it.

Like NAAIM, I remain bearish, but not with significant conviction.

Forgot to post last week's action. Quickly, the market saw the S&P close out the week with a somewhat modest (weekly) loss, while the DWCPF had a moderate gain. The charts didn't change much, but price on the DWCPF is testing resistance at its 50 dma. Momentum may be starting to turn up.

Cumulative breadth rose on Friday and is bullish.

We know that NAAIM is bearish, but the latest TSP Talk survey shows us bulled up moderately.

I remain bearish (modestly), but I have a feeling we may see some upside in the short term.

Monday's action certainly had a bullish feel to it. But can it continue? Let's look at the charts.

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Price on the S&P closed in an area of resistance. There is more resistance above, but how stiff I cannot say. Price on the DWCPF poked above the 50 dma, but closed under it once more. As long as price has been under that key average, getting above it may not be an easy task for the bulls. But we're about to find out very soon whether they can pull it off or not. Momentum is turning up, but I can't get excited about that just yet.

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Cumulative breadth hit a fresh all-time high. It's a bullish chart right now and that does have some weight of sorts.

Which makes me wonder what the smart money is thinking right now. They were bearish 2 weeks in a row and it is safe to say that the 2 charts above are not as yet giving the all's clear. The late day swoon, while not overly significant, could be a tell for Tuesday's action so we'll have to see if that's the case.

I am going to remain bearish (I really don't like being bearish) until this market, and especially the DWCPF, can prove that price can be driven higher. It may not be long now before we know the answer to that question.

It was a choppy back and forth kind of day on Tuesday, but one that had the bulls slowly lose ground into the close.

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So far, resistance is holding on both charts. Momentum, which was rising, stalled. It doesn't mean a whole lot just yet other than the bulls have some work to do to push price through those resistance areas.

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Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

It's still a game of wait and see. Is resistance going to hold or will the bulls find a way to push through it?

I remain modestly bearish for now.

The bulls managed to capture some gains today, but it wasn't an even day.

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Price on the S&P was only up modestly. It is pushing against resistance and there's still more above today's close. Price on the DWCPF actually pushed past and closed above its 50 dma. That's a big deal, but it's only one day and there is more resistance above. Momentum is rising on both charts, but strength isn't exactly robust.

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Cumulative breadth posted an all-time high on the NYSE on today's rally.

Well, the market is slowly recapturing ground on the upside. The fact that the DWCPF recaptured its 50 dma is a big win, but it needs to hold and the index still has more potential resistance to contend with. The S&P is also grappling with resistance. Still, it's hard to be bearish right now (wary is okay).

I am going from bearish to neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I am going to be away from my computer for the next week, maybe more. I do not expect to post for a little while. Have a Happy Memorial Day!

Originally Posted by coolhand

I am going to be away from my computer for the next week, maybe more. I do not expect to post for a little while. Have a Happy Memorial Day!

Have a great vacation!

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