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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8149

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was another sloppy trading session today with the S&P and DWCPF both posted modest losses.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price didn't move all that much on either chart. The S&P and DWCPF both seem to be hitting resistance. It's as if the market is telling the bears "I'm ready to roll over, you can short now". And then the market will likely take off once again. Yeah, the bears love that game.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth looked good today despite the negative close. It remains bullish.

    We get to see what NAAIM thinks of this action tomorrow when they post their latest sentiment reading.

    I remain bullish for now.

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  3. #8150

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today, the market gave us a mixed close, with the S&P advancing and the DWCPF pulling back. Neither were big moves.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    So we can see that price pushed past resistance on the S&P, while it was rejected on the DWCPF. Momentum is still more or less flat on the S&P, but hinting at turning down on the DWCPF. I'd take it with a grain of salt right now.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in a bit more bullish today. They are pretty bulled up overall. I always look higher on readings like this.

    While the DWCPF continues to have its struggles, the bulls have at least pushed price near its all-time high. Today's rejection is likely a temporary set-back; at least that's how I am looking at it. With NAAIM still bulled up, I'm looking higher on both indexes, but will the S&P begin leading again?

    I remain bullish.

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  5. #8151

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Coolhand. did you see the NAAIM post by Bullit?

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  7. #8152

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    Coolhand. did you see the NAAIM post by Bullit?
    I learned about NAAIM from a Wall Street Pro (over 30 years experience). NAAIM is smart money. That's all I generally need to know and because they are smart money they shouldn't be second guessed (as a general rule). There are plenty of distractions out there. One can find a counter narrative to anything and everything on any topic and on any given day. It's a great way to run around in circles.

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  9. #8153

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    so right you are. thank you

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  11. #8154

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday's negative action capped what ended up to be a lackluster week.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price fell on both charts Friday. The S&P ended up with only a very modest gain on the week, while the DWCPF took a moderate weekly loss. It's definitely been a slog for the S&P the past 2 weeks and also for the DWCPF. Upward traction has been difficult during that time. But the downside hasn't been there for the bears either. And it's still a bull market, so unless something changes I have to keep looking higher. Momentum has turned down on both charts.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth fell on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.

    Our TSP Talk sentiment survey remained bullish this week, which keeps us in line with the NAAIM reading.

    So, while the indexes have been tracking sideways of late, the fact that this is still a bull market should carry significant weight unless proven otherwise. And since NAAIM remains bullish, it's easy to remain committed to the long side for now. The fact that the bears have been a non-factor helps too.

    I remain bullish.


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  13. #8155

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was another uninspiring day for the market on Monday. That's not necessarily a bad thing, just boring more than anything else.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price didn't move much on either chart. The S&P was modestly higher, while the DWCPF modestly lower. Momentum remains down, but it's not affecting price a whole lot. It's that uninspiring nature I mentioned above.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth actually moved higher and remains bullish.

    There isn't a lot to say about the action that I didn't already say. As uninspiring as it is, the trend does still remain up. I would sure like to see the DWCPF break out to the upside finally. It's dragging its feet (or digging in its heels).

    I remain bullish.

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  15. #8156

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We'll, we got an inspiring day today. It just wasn't for the bulls, but rather the bears who got some inspiration. All thanks to higher interest rate talks.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P fell, but did close well off its low of the day. Price also fell on the DWCPF, testing support at the 50 dma, which it did successfully as it close above that level after spending some time under it. Momentum is falling on both charts. I have to wonder why NAAIM has been so bullish. Is something else coming that turns things up?

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped, but not a lot. The signal remains bullish.

    Are the days of easy gains over? It sure is starting to feel that way. Looking at the DWCPF, we can see that we have a double top over the past 2.5 months. The S&P has fared much better, but it has largely stalled for more than 2 weeks. I am not bearish on this data, but it is noteworthy and certainly something to watch.

    So, today's action wasn't what the bulls were looking for, but technical damage remains pretty light to this point. Since NAAIM has been bullish, I'm assuming price will turn back up at some point. But I'm still at least somewhat concerned about the DWCPF trading in a range as long as it has. Since the S&P has been trending higher during this time (expect the past couple of weeks), I have given the benefit of the doubt to small caps that they would eventually play catch up. We'll just have to keep watching the action for more clues as time goes on.

    I remain bullish, but I am not complacent.

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  17. #8157

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Current market character continued to dish up and down action with a mixed closed today.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P managed to eke out a very modest gain, while the DWCPF fell for the 6th trading day in a row. Price on that index also closed just under the 50 dma. Will it hold? That's what we want to watch. Momentum remains down.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked modestly higher and remains on the bullish side.

    This market isn't what it used to be. We are not seeing even trading. Breadth remains okay (not great), but price is struggling to get upside traction; especially on the DWCPF.

    We're still a couple of days from a fresh NAAIM reading. The action isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. I remain bullish, but how long can this market continue to tread water (especially the small caps).

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  19. #8158

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The latest NAAIM reading came in less bullish, but still bullish. I note that they are still not showing much inclination to short this market.

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  21. #8159

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    A familiar theme continued in market trading today. The S&P showed resilience in fighting off early (moderate) weakness and turned back up to eventually post a solid gain. The DWCPF also started out weak, much weaker than the S&P, and while it did stage a comeback in the afternoon, it was too little, too late and it closed out the session with a moderate loss.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that the S&P finished the session not far off its all-time high, while price on the DWCPF continues to dig deeper and closed under its 50 dma for the 2nd day in a row. It's hard to be bullish on that DWCPF chart. I am going to go neutral on it at this point. Momentum continued to fall on the DWCPF, while the on the S&P it appears that it "may" be turning back up. We'll have to see. Price on the DWCPF is currently testing support under the 50 dma. Let's see if it holds.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked higher on the day, but its gains are modest. It fits in with what we see with the struggling DWCPF that this bull market is not acting as strong as it once did. This may be an early warning (which is why I watch the smart money).

    Speaking of smart money, NAAIM tempered their bullishness, but they were still bullish overall. They are definitely not showing much enthusiasm for the short side of the market to this point.

    I had hoped the DWCPF would break out of its long term range by now, but it hasn't and instead is struggling just to maintain the 50 dma, which has flat-lined. That index is going nowhere right now. For this reason I am moving back to a neutral stance on the DWCPF, but will maintain a bullish stance on the S&P.

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  23. #8160

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    "S" fund sucks.
    But hoping for an uptick soon.
    May the force be with us.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
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