Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

The situation at the Suez Canal is not simply unfortunate. It would anticipate that it will have a negative impact (fairly quickly) on global trade and quite possibly the financial markets. Definitely something to watch.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/mig...-remains-stuck

The bears had their way for the morning session, but the bulls got back in the game in the afternoon to close out the day with moderate gains.

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It remains a mixed picture with price on the DWCPF still under the 50 dma and above that key average on the S&P. Momentum has yet to turn back up. Volume has been average. Since the market turned today, it may be ready for the upswing. We'll have to see.

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Breadth turned up and is now in a neutral condition.

NAAIM came in neutral today. They are not shorting much, but there's reason for the neutrality. The obvious one is inflation, but now we also have a very touchy situation in the Suez Canal. This is a big deal, but how the market reacts to it (over time) remains to be seen. I suspect it may not be cleared for a little while. I've no doubt there is more under the surface of this situation than the ship's bilge and it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

I remain neutral.

Originally Posted by coolhand

NAAIM came in neutral today. They are not shorting much, but there's reason for the neutrality. The obvious one is inflation, but now we also have a very touchy situation in the Suez Canal. This is a big deal, but how the market reacts to it (over time) remains to be seen. I suspect it may not be cleared for a little while. I've no doubt there is more under the surface of this situation than the ship's bilge and it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

Do you think the blockage was deliberate? Egypt or someone else flexing their muscle maybe?

If you control the world's trade you are a power to be reckoned with.

Originally Posted by Cactus

If you control the world's trade you are a power to be reckoned with.

Battles over control are never absent from the global landscape. Those battles are always present, even if we don't see direct evidence of the battle (vice accident).

More on the Suez:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/su...-wrecking-ball

Friday saw a wild rally into the close, which capped a positive day overall, but depending on which fund you were exposed to you either had a good week or a not so good week as the C fund posted a solid gain, but the S fund was thrown for a hefty loss.

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The good news is that the S&P is rallying hard off a successful test of support of its 50 dma. The S&P is also testing resistance at its all-time high. On the other hand, price on the DWCPF remains under its own 50 dma. Upward momentum is turning up, but it's not clear if it can be sustained; especially on the DWCPF.

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Breadth advanced on Friday and is bullish.

Our TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral, so that matches the NAAIM reading in terms of sentiment. Given how much is happening around the world and its potential impact on the global markets, it's not surprising to see the bulls take a wait and see approach.

So, the picture remains mixed. We can see that small cap stocks on the whole are not particularly favored over larger cap stocks and that remains something to take in consideration when deciding on which funds to hold and how much. Rallies can be explosive and would likely favor small caps if perceived threats to the economic picture are diminished. But that remains to be seen.

I remain neutral overall, but I'm going to lean modestly bullish on the S&P 500.

Today's action changed little in terms of market character. In particular, small caps got hit early in the trading session and never recovered. The S&P also got hit early, but it bounced back to close near the neutral line.

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On the S&P chart, we can see that price failed to push past resistance, but it didn't give up much ground either. Price on the DWCPF gave back all of Friday's gains and bit more. Support is not far below and I suspect price may test it again; maybe soon. Momentum is now rising on the S&P, but falling on the DWCPF.

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Breadth dipped and is back to a neutral condition.

This week is the end of the quarter, which could mean some measure of volatility over the next day or 2. Just something to note.

I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P, but that index needs to push through resistance or it could go the other way again.

It was another one of those up and down days today that saw a mixed close.

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Volume was on the lighter side today. Price backed off the peak a bit more on the S&P. I get the impression that this index may be coiling for a upside break through resistance. The DWCPF bounced, but that does little to change the picture for this index, which remains below the 50 dma, but also above support in the 2020 area. Momentum is now flat on both charts, however momentum is still in positive territory on the S&P, but negative on the DWCPF.

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Breadth ticked higher, but that doesn't change much. It's still rather neutral overall.

I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.

The bulls notched a win today, but it didn't clear up the fog around this market.

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Price on the S&P attempted an upside break through resistance, but got pushed back for a modest gain overall. Price on the DWCPF came very close to testing resistance at its 50 dma. It closed for a decent gain on the day. Momentum and strength are not inspiring on either chart.

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Cumulative breadth ticked higher and the signal is technically bullish, but like price, it's not inspiring.

NAAIM's neutral stance (as well as our own) would seem consistent to this point with market action as the market gets ready to head into Thursday. We'll get a fresh NAAIM reading around mid-day.

I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.

NAAIM remains neutral. I want to point out that the bears are not showing any levered positions. I also want to point out the bulls have cut their leverage by half. That's actually been the case for 4 weeks now. So, the neutral reading is very much that. It certainly seems apparent that they are collectively watching for clues about something (or multiple somethings) to get a better sense of where the market might be headed.

The bulls took control of the action today as price on both the DWCPF and S&P gapped higher at the open and remained at elevated levels throughout the trading session.

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The S&P easily posted a fresh all-time high, while the DWCPF saw price close above its 50 dma for the first time in the last 8 trading sessions. Momentum ticked higher on both charts. Is this the breakout we're looking for? It might be with the S&P, but the DWCPF has more work to do as resistance looms not terribly far above its closing price.

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Breadth looked very good on the day and signal is solidly bullish right now.

NAAIM came in solidly neutral. That's not much help at all; especially with today's positive action.

It does remain a bull market and I think its heavily coated in Teflon. Still, while the S&P has marched higher within a rising channel, the DWCPF broke its channel several weeks ago and has been moving more sideways (within a range) for about 6 weeks now. So, we don't have an even market at the moment. Maybe the DWCPF plays catch-up. Maybe it doesn't. It's too soon to be sure. With a neutral NAAIM reading I think I'd give this market some room and not get overly bulled up on the positive action we got today. I continue to favor the S&P over the DWCPF until proven otherwise.

I am going to remain neutral with a modest bullish sentiment toward the S&P.