Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Will sp500 make break out by next week? Rhetorical question.

Originally Posted by joblin20

Will sp500 make break out by next week? Rhetorical question.

It's poised to break out to the upside once again. Given that the DWCPF keeps hitting fresh all-time highs, I strongly suspect that the S&P 500 will continue to follow. Let's see where NAAIM stands tomorrow. If they remain bulled up, we are likely to see the S&P hit a fresh high by next week or sooner.

I agree and with the addition of Tesla we are poised for a breakout, we are embedded on a weekly basis in spy, we are embedding on the daily basis; all signals go for a breakout.

Originally Posted by grimmjsg123

I agree and with the addition of Tesla we are poised for a breakout, we are embedded on a weekly basis in spy, we are embedding on the daily basis; all signals go for a breakout.

Next question would be when they pull the rug on this. Start of 2021 maybe

Watch the Bollinger band on a DAILY basis for CLOSING; retrospectively before the rug was pulled out we broke above the Bollinger band on a daily basis a selloff occurred soon thereafter it is the canary in the coal mine. Actually, if you look back before the COVID selloff, we closed above it. Most recently, look back at September 02 and October 12, 2020 you will see where it broke above and closed above the Bollinger Band on those dates and you can see the subsequent selloff. Does it work every time, no, but it is a strong indicator to watch for to protect capital.

Originally Posted by grimmjsg123

Watch the Bollinger band on a DAILY basis for CLOSING; retrospectively before the rug was pulled out we broke above the Bollinger band on a daily basis a selloff occurred soon thereafter it is the canary in the coal mine. Actually, if you look back before the COVID selloff, we closed above it. Most recently, look back at September 02 and October 12, 2020 you will see where it broke above and closed above the Bollinger Band on those dates and you can see the subsequent selloff. Does it work every time, no, but it is a strong indicator to watch for to protect capital.

Very good insight, thank you.

We are witnessing a global financial shift, the likes of which has not been seen before. I am wary of using too many indicators that are based on historical "norms". I know how to use many of them, but I've seen too many "back-tested" systems fail over the past few years to remain comfortable with them. That is a general comment and not directed to any system in particular. However, the Seven Sentinels system that I posted on for quite some time in the past are one of those systems that worked very well in its day, but then became more of a liability later on. I've learned from Wall Street pros, many of whom did not recognize how much HFT and algorithms were steadily reshaping the markets. The market is more than 70% computerized now. Much of it is now controlled by AI. It's a shifting landscape over time.

There are geopolitical reasons for what we are seeing too, but I can't go into that because it will ruffle feathers.

With respect to my last post, I should also add that this is another reason I prefer to follow NAAIM, because they appear to understand this landscape fairly well.

And the NAAIM came in bullish again so they are seeing the same things, I think.

Originally Posted by flalaw97

And the NAAIM came in bullish again so they are seeing the same things, I think.

Seeing levels this high is very concerning. Talk about the rubber band stretching to historical limits.

Originally Posted by flalaw97

And the NAAIM came in bullish again so they are seeing the same things, I think.

NAAIM was below 25 for five weeks in March - April and turned out to be the buying opportunity everyone missed.

It's been over 100 for the past five weeks which means there is zero money on the sidelines to cushion the next inevitable drop.