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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7957

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While the market closed off its highs of the day, it was still an overall positive day on balance.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 closed near neutral on the day, but price on the DWCPF was up almost 1%. We aren't off to the races, but the trend remains to the upside.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth continues to rise and remains bullish.

    NAAIM was relatively unchanged on the day and remains very bullish.

    I remain bullish.

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  3. #7958

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Okay, we are now officially in silly territory. I'm calling it. More so for the DWCPF than the S&P, but cumulative breadth is silly too.

    If you are long, you are definitely liking this silly market.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the DWCPF continues to impress to the upside. I said I wasn't worried about the overbought RSI and you can see why. Price on the S&P is also rising, but not yet overbought. That's another reason I'm not worried about RSI on the DWCPF, because the DWCPF is not a visible index to most folks unless you're a TSP investor.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth is showing you why price is rising (in a big way). It remains quite bullish.

    So, heading into next week we have very strong cumulative breadth, rising price and momentum and bullish smart money. I like that combination.

    I remain bullish.

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  5. #7959

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was a lackluster trading today that resulted in mixed close among the indexes.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P fell modestly, while the DWCPF eked out a gain.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth fell modestly, but obviously remains very bullish.

    I'll keep it shorter than usual tonight. I remain bullish.

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  7. #7960

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Back on November 16th I said...

    "I have a hunch that this market could get silly to the upside. I can't predict it, but I would not be surprised with a rally that has even the bulls shaking their heads. I'm looking forward to seeing how this actually plays out."

    Today, we got yet another rally on top of the gains over the past 3 plus weeks. Admittedly, the DWCPF has been outpacing the S&P 500 during this time, but up is up.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    That ramp from early November on the DWCPF is certainly impressive. So is the S&P, but it doesn't sport as much gain as the DWCPF. Momentum remains bullish. Remember when I said not to get too concerned about the DWCPF getting overbought? It's now been more than 2 weeks since it entered overbought territory.

    NYAD.png

    That's quite a ramp on the NYAD too. It's about as a bullish as I've ever seen it.

    I know it's hard to believe this market, but the market environment supports what we are seeing. Now we know why NAAIM got bullish. And this is not unusual for this group of money managers.

    I remain bullish.

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  9. #7961

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market finally saw some selling today, which was needed to consolidate gains and work off the overbought nature of some parts of the market.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    No technical damage yet, and we can see that RSI is still overbought on the DWCPF, but any more selling will likely take the DWCPF out of overbought territory. Momentum turned down, but remains bullish for now.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth dipped, but only a bit. It still remains very bullish.

    We get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow. I remain bullish.

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  11. #7962

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in unchanged. That means they remained very bullish. I expect that once the current consolidation period is over the market will likely move to new highs.

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  13. #7963

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thursday's trading saw small caps snap back from Wednesday losses to post solid gains. They didn't quite erase all of the losses, but they did get most of it back. The S&P 500 struggled all day and ended the session near the neutral line.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts remain bullish. Upside momentum has fallen off, but price remains not far off its peak.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth continues to impress and remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in solidly bullish for the 5th week in a row. Remember, this is smart money. When they are leaning hard in a given direction you don't want to go the other way (generally). I find this group of money managers to be very consistent overall in their weekly positioning (high accuracy).

    So, now that NAAIM has given us a fresh (bullish) reading, I can confidently remain bullish.

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  15. #7964

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,
    Thanks for the charts and your insight. A daily read.
    May the force be with us.

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  17. Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    CH,
    Thanks for the charts and your insight. A daily read.
    Same here CH; a daily read for me as well. thanks for the insight.


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  19. #7966

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market closed mixed on the week last week, with the S fund up moderately and the C fund down moderately. What is notable is that the bears did not take advantage of the somewhat flat trading environment.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Friday saw the S&P and DWCPF close on a down note, but the charts remain bullish. Momentum has actually gone negative on the S&P, while flat on the DWCPF.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth dipped Friday, but no one can deny the bullish nature of this chart.

    The TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish once more, but not overly so. NAAIM remained bulled up for 5 weeks straight.

    I see nothing of significance in the readings to suggest the bull party is rolling over. I remain bullish.

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  21. #7967

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market started out hot at the open, but peaked after an hour and began to slowly give back its gains all the way into the close. But it was still a mixed close with the DWCPF closing positive, while the S&P had a negative close. If this is what selling pressure looks like, the bulls will take it.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    No serious damage to the charts, but the S&P is the decidedly weaker index. And it isn't in bad shape to this point at all. Momentum has turned down on both charts.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth was weak again, but remains bulish.

    So, it appears we're seeing a rough patch in the market that's been controlled (so far). With a bullish NAAIM reading from late last week, I don't expect to see much downside damage. In fact, risk does still remain to the upside.

    I remain bullish.

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  23. #7968

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    What comes after silly? Insane?

    I've been saying for a few weeks now that this market could get silly to the upside and that even the bulls may be shaking their heads at some point. I saw this coming, though I don't make predictions. I just share my expectations based on what I'm looking at. My perspective is shaped by more than just the elements you read in my commentary.

    So, just when many were thinking market exhaustion, boom!; we get another push to the upside.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the DWCPF hit and closed at another all-time high today. And momentum is flat. But price is what matters most. Notice how long now that RSI has been buried in overbought territory. The S&P rallied as well, but did not hit a new high. However, it's not far from it. Is momentum starting to turn back up? What if it does? How many points might that be good for? I'm just musing. As long as the DWCPF continues to fly, the S&P, while lagging, will likely follow.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth gave us another all-time high as well. Probably one of the most impressive ramps I've seen on this chart.

    I still see no reason to get bearish. Someone wants this market higher and NAAIM knew it.

    I remain bullish.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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