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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7705

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM remains neutral. There was a bit more bearish and bullish positions indicated in the poll. But the bears are not shorting with both hands. I suspect what we are seeing from this reading is simply money managers covering both sides of the market while uncertainty remains. They are slanted toward the upside, however, which is still the trend.

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  3. #7706

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks CH! Not sure to what degree the efforts to 'open up the country' for business are having, but I have to imagine as economic activity improves, so will the market. I do remember, the market is not the economy, but they are related.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  5. #7707

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears tried to take the market back down early on in the trading day, but the bulls turned it back up to erase some of the losses.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF actually closed marginally higher, while the S&P was thrown for a moderate loss. Still, no technical damage was done and price remains not far under the 200 dma.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth held up well and remains modestly bullish.

    NAAIM got a bit more bullish this week, but the overall reading is still neutral. The trend remains up and that's important. If price can clear the 200 dma, we could see another up-leg. That may take some time yet, but we'll see how it goes. I remain neutral.

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  7. #7708

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    All in all, the bulls had a pretty good week last week as price bounced all the way back to the upper end of the trading range, though higher highs were hit.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price on the S&P 500 is tracking sideways just under its 200 dma. Volume has fallen off. Price on the DWCPF is ebbing higher and closed for significant gains on the week.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bullish.

    So, NAAIM remained neutral last Thursday, but there is a tilt toward the bullish side. It just isn't pronounced enough to make it a bullish reading. There are reasons to be wary given price has yet to test the 200 dma on the S&P 500. The fact that price is near its highs is also reason (for the smart money) to not bet heavily either way. It's been about a month now that price has traded up and down in range, but the bulls are still in control.

    The 200 dma may be the key to the next up-leg or another reversal to the bottom of the range (generally the 50 dma).

    I remain neutral with a modest tilt to the bullish side.

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  9. #7709

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls are in the process of testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500 this morning.

    S&P 500.png

    The action feels solid. We need to see price hold this ground for more than a couple days, and if the bulls can do that we may see more bulls jump in and some bears throw in the towel.

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  11. #7710

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Sooner or later it was almost certainly going to happen. The 200 dma got tested on the S&P 500 today.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price closed largely on that key average at the end of the trading day. Price on the DWCPF closed just under its 200 dma. Momentum turned up. Volume was fairly robust. That's a plus for the bulls.

    NYAD.png

    Looking at breadth, it soared. That's what we want to see as the 200 dma gets tested. There is conviction behind the move.

    Still, victory has not been won until price can close above that key average and hold it for at least a couple of days. At the same time this test is occurring, price is hitting new highs. It's looking good for the bulls at this point. We won't get a fresh read from NAAIM for a couple of days. We'll need that to validate the strength we're seeing in the charts. If they get bulled up (we may need some upside follow-through), it'll be an easy bullish read for the following week. I've been wanting to lean bullish of late, but not with NAAIM being neutral themselves. Still, I've also cautioned that the bulls are in control despite the sideways movement the past month or so.

    I remain neutral to modestly bullish for now. I'd be more bullish if price wasn't in the process of testing a key resistance area.

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  13. #7711

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Given the strength of Tuesday's rally, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that Wednesday saw more strength. Breadth and volume appeared to be indicating that the move was not transient.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price has now closed above the 200 dma on the S&P and is sitting on that key average on the DWCPF. Volume was a bit more robust than the previous session.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth soared again and is making a compelling bullish statement.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. That is always a key element of my analysis. I always want to know what the smart money is doing. We'll know very shortly.

    I remain neutral to modestly bullish, but could change my position on the NAAIM reading.

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  15. #7712

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Good news bulls. NAAIM is showing a significant increase in bullish positions and very little shorting. I've seen readings that were more bullish from them, but this one is solid nonetheless.

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  17. #7713

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, the bull party was going well til some trade news hit the wires, which triggered some selling that sent price below the neutral line. We'll have to see if it was just an initial knee-jerk reaction or not.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    For the most part, the charts held up, though the DWCPF dipped back below the 200 dma. But the S&P did not and that is the more visible chart.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped, but not much and remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in solidly bullish today, which means I am now flipping to full bull mode.


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  19. #7714

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    Default Smart Money Gets Bullish

    Well, the bull party was going well til some trade news hit the wires, which triggered some selling that sent price below the neutral line. We'll have to see if it was just an initial knee-jerk reaction or not.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    For the most part, the charts held up, though the DWCPF dipped back below the 200 dma. But the S&P did not and that is the more visible chart.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped, but not much and remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in solidly bullish today, which means I am now flipping to full bull mode.

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  21. #7715

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls did well last week, posting more than 3% gains in the C and S funds.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The 200 dma remains a battleground, but so far that average is supporting price on the S&P 500. I am not concerned about it failing with the smart money taking more bullish positions.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bullish.

    TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish this week. Guess some of us were waiting for NAAIM to lead the way. Not a bad idea.

    There is no shortage of bad news right now and it's probably going to get worse. That may mean the market soars or at least continues to trend higher,

    I remain bullish.

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  23. #7716

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    There is no shortage of bad news right now and it's probably going to get worse. That may mean the market soars or at least continues to trend higher
    Markets are so weird.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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