Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by nnuut

I think it's up in the morning but how long will it last?

If I can grab 3% tomorrow and bail to G I'll call it a win!!


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The bulls had a pretty good week last week as all 3 TSP stock funds closed with solid gains, but it was the C fund that tripled the gains of the S and I.

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We can see that price on the S&P is now testing its 50 dma. It is in a solid uptrend. The DWCPF closed at a high (on the current up-leg), but has yet to test its 50 dma. Momentum remains positive on both charts.

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Breadth flipped positive again on the NYSE.

Our TSP sentiment went bearish again, which is in alignment with NAAIM, which remained bearish with last Thursday's reading. They are not falling over themselves to short this market, so avoid taking this reading as more bearish than it is. The fact is, there is a lot happening in the financial system and I doubt many money managers are comfortable right now regardless of their sentiment. It just isn't business as usual.

I went modestly bullish late last week and remain modestly bullish right now. I really don't think that the bears can mount anything of significance to the downside at this time.

Originally Posted by coolhand

The bulls had a pretty good week last week as all 3 TSP stock funds closed with solid gains, but it was the C fund that tripled the gains of the S and I.

The difference between the C fund and the S fund so far is that the S fund has had larger negative and positive days vs. the C fund. The difference between the C fund and the I fund was that the C fund had better positive days vs. the I fund.

I would like to start out today's commentary by quoting something I said yesterday as follows:

"...there is a lot happening in the financial system and I doubt many money managers are comfortable right now regardless of their sentiment. It just isn't business as usual."

Why am I pointing this out?

I suspect most or at least many of you saw what happened in the oil sector today. A historic plunge to negative prices occurred. That is a first. I can't help but think a fuse of some sort has now been lit.

Is this why NAAIM isn't embracing the rally? I won't speculate on the fallout because I suspect that the expected ramifications of such an occurrence may not manifest the way many money professionals may think.

For now, let's just say that this event could make the rest of this week very interesting in financial markets.

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Looking at the charts, you'd never know something major occurred as price, which did go negative today, merely gave back a portion of last week's gains, and that isn't unexpected or unusual.

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Breadth continues to flip back and forth and is now negative once more. Perhaps we can look at this reading as neutral given the action.

Futures are positive as I write this, but who knows how the market opens tomorrow. It would not surprise me if the market rallies. It is perverse enough to do something like that.

I remain modestly bullish.

Down is up, up is down, nothing is as it should be, nothing makes sense.

Originally Posted by Beester15

Down is up, up is down, nothing is as it should be, nothing makes sense.

Alice in Wonderland it is!

Yes, this market is crazy. Futures are now lower as the sell-off in the oil sector appears poised to extend losses. Can the bulls mount a response? Can they maintain the up-trend? NAAIM's bearishness does call this into question, but as I said in previous posts, they aren't shorting this market in earnest. I'm sure that reluctance is rooted in uncertainty.

The selling continued today as did pressure on the oil market. But this selling still has a "controlled" feeling to it. I don't get the impression based on the action that the bears can keep this going.

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So far, price has been rejected (resistance) at the 50 dma on the S&P 500. But we may have another bull flag started, so I would expect another test at some point. Having said that, momentum is rolling over, so the bulls need to step in soon. The DWCPF is in a short term trading range with price now testing the lower part of that range.

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Breadth is now definitively bearish.

I am going back to a neutral stance. I would not be surprised by a run to the upside again, but I also can't rule out more weakness.

The bulls bounced the market today. It seems we remain in somewhat of a trading range right now.

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Price on the S&P didn't quite test the falling 50 dma, which is still an area of resistance. The DWCPF is moving sideways. Momentum has stalled.

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Breadth is now neutral, having pushed back through the 21 day EMA.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I suspect they will not change much. The uncertainty about this market remains in place, though we are still technically in an uptrend. Still plenty of upside key resistance areas to slice through.

I remain neutral.

The market was largely flat on somewhat volatile trading today.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price on the S&P 500 is testing the falling 50 dma again and closed just under it. The DWCPF may test it simply when the average falls down to the top of the trading channel if it does not break out first. Momentum is rather flat.

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Breadth rose, but remains neutral.

The main data point for today is somewhat good news for the bulls. NAAIM had a fairly good rise in bullish positions. They are not bullish overall, but I would say they went from collectively bearish to neutral now. The bulls just may get another up-leg in the days ahead on this reading. It may not be a big one, but it would certainly keep the uptrend intact.

The market closed lower overall last week. I consider the weakness to be part of the climb higher. We need consolidation here and there to keep it going (historically).

S&P 500.png
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Price on the S&P 500 closed above its 50 dma. There is plenty of resistance to get to the next big hurdle, which is the 200 dma, but first we need to see price remain above the 50. The DWCPF closed almost neutral for the week. Momentum remains flat to modestly positive.

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Breadth flipped bullish again, but it's still moving sideways overall.

I said on Thursday that NAAIM went from bearish to a neutral reading. No slam dunks on the upside with this reading, but it's a good sign for the bulls just the same. TSP also went from bearish to neutral.

I am neutral to modestly bullish. There does seem to be a floor under this market even as price is struggling to go higher (in the overall market).