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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7561

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm not sure if I believe the price on the DWCPF or not. The charts say it was up almost 5.9%, but the S&P was up only marginally. I've never seen that kind of separation before. I'm assuming it's correct.

    In any event, the market bounced today. It still doesn't change the trend. Futures are down again this evening.

    NAAIM came in even more bearish this week. They can't get much more bearish after this reading. Beware.

    Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.

    It's still too soon to look for a bottom I think. I remain bearish.

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  3. #7562

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    I'm not sure if I believe the price on the DWCPF or not. The charts say it was up almost 5.9%, but the S&P was up only marginally. I've never seen that kind of separation before. I'm assuming it's correct.
    Oil, that is. Black gold. Texas Tea.

    The S-fund was down 10% on Wednesday because oil was down over 20%, then oil bounced back 24% today.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #7563

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Small Caps were poised for a strong 2020 according to some analysts... hoping this is still the case when this virus thing blows over.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  7. #7564

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Mint says the demand for Silver Eagles is up 300% for March, they are out of them. JM Bullion, Silvertowne and most major dealers are out not only of monster boxes but bars as well. Silvertowne says shipments will take 10-12 weeks, major disconnect to economic supply and demand when looking at spot price

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  9. #7565

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by gegor1957 View Post
    Mint says the demand for Silver Eagles is up 300% for March, they are out of them. JM Bullion, Silvertowne and most major dealers are out not only of monster boxes but bars as well. Silvertowne says shipments will take 10-12 weeks, major disconnect to economic supply and demand when looking at spot price
    I've heard, but cannot confirm, that by mid to end of April we will see gold and silver up much higher. We'll see.

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  11. #7566

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was a brutal week for the bulls. Losses among the major averages were in double digits for the week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The charts tell the story. The S&P hit a fresh low on Friday. The DWCPF did not, but it may catch up next week.

    Breadth remains bearish. NAAIM is bearish.

    I continue to believe that the market will continue to lose value for a while longer yet. I think the bottom comes in early to mid April (that's my best guess). Maybe the daily losses get smaller as we near the bottom. We'll have to see.

    I remain bearish.

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  13. #7567

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Volatility remains with us and so does the trend, which remains down.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P continued to hit new lows, while the DWPCF is remaining above its last Wednesday low. The 900 level appears to be support, but I don't trust it at all. Not with the S&P continuing to fall.

    Breadth remains bearish. Of course, we already know NAAIM is very bearish.

    I see nothing in today's action to change my current sentiment, which remains bearish.

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  15. #7568

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls had quite a bounce today. Price soared, erasing much of the past few days of losses.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    RSI has turned up. Momentum suggests it may be poised to turn.

    Sounds bullish. And maybe it is beyond the next day or so, but as big a bounce as it was, it's still just 1 day. We'll have to see if signals can confirm.

    Breadth turned up, but is still bearish.

    I am tempted to go neutral from my bearish disposition, but it's too soon for me. If the market rises again tomorrow I may shift to neutral. I am not ready to go bullish.

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  17. #7569

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Cool- what say NAAIM...also what happened to the days when equities were up when bonds were down and vice versa...back in the days when IT was slayin' 30 plus %...i say here first that with the volatility we currently have IT slays it for 30 percent again...


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  19. #7570

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by shitepoke View Post
    Cool- what say NAAIM...also what happened to the days when equities were up when bonds were down and vice versa...back in the days when IT was slayin' 30 plus %...i say here first that with the volatility we currently have IT slays it for 30 percent again...
    Anything can happen. NAAIM was very bearish last Thursday, but we don't get a fresh read till Thursday again. The market can change between readings and NAAIM won't wait for their survey to make changes to their respective portfolios (should they feel it's necessary). I do think the market soars again, but I am not expecting it until next month (maybe). I have to play this day by day because significant events are occurring daily.

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  21. #7571

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market made it 2 in a row today, but a late day swoon erased a sizable portion of gains. That swoon was due to yet another hold up of the stimulus package that Congress is "rushing" to get to the people. I won't add any personal observations; you probably have your own.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    While the charts improved, that late day sell-off could be a precursor to more selling if that package isn't signed today. Price is still way below the 50 and 200 dma's.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth has also looked good the past 2 days, but it is still not technically bullish.

    With volatility as high as it is, it would be a gamble to take either side of the trade here.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bearish, but if the market takes off on good news tomorrow I'll probably flip neutral. We'll see what the smart money thinks soon.

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  23. #7572

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The latest NAAIM sentiment reading remains bearish, but they have reduced their short exposure. This tells me that the market is not out of the woods, but the downside may now be limited.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
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