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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7549

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It appears that the physical precious metals market is decoupling from the paper market. Prices of physical are commanding a higher premium as a result.

    Things are changing quickly in many ways. We are not in Kansas anymore. (That's a good thing)

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  3. #7550

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls got trampled again today. Not only did the market give back Friday's gains, but plumbed new lows.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts show some serious damage to price with no indication that a bottom might be in. Price closed at the lows of the day.

    NYAD.png

    No surprise that breadth is also bearish.

    Precious metals have been falling along with the stock market, which isn't really a surprise, but I do find it interesting that real estate seems to be weathering this turbulence fairly well (where I live anyway). At least for the moment. I am seeing a lot of new construction around my neighborhood over the past few months.

    But the stock market remains is dire straits and I have a hard time seeing this turn around quickly. I still think it may be April sometime before we see stability, but that's just a hunch on my part. In any event, I remain bearish.

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  5. #7551

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thx again for your postings/thoughts and comments! Can you confirm/elaborate on your meaning earlier "... precious metals decoupling from paper... physicals.."?
    BTW - today in my relatively small Robinhood account, after going to nearly zero-invested over over the prior couple days of "stop-loss sells", I went in early for PMs and bond funds, and a handful off equity stocks that seemed to be holding up... generally that portfolio was up for the day & I gained a few bucks back.
    THX again!


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  7. #7552

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FAAM View Post
    Thx again for your postings/thoughts and comments! Can you confirm/elaborate on your meaning earlier "... precious metals decoupling from paper... physicals.."?
    BTW - today in my relatively small Robinhood account, after going to nearly zero-invested over over the prior couple days of "stop-loss sells", I went in early for PMs and bond funds, and a handful off equity stocks that seemed to be holding up... generally that portfolio was up for the day & I gained a few bucks back.
    THX again!
    Everyday I watch what PM is fetching in the open market (EBAY, PM Distributors, etc.) and I've noticed that many of the large distributors (APMEX, Bullion Exchange, etc.) are or have run out of certain types of PM (especially silver). They are also cautioning buyers that there is limits on how much they can buy as well as distribution and delivery delays. I also noted today that pricing did not change nearly as much for the physical metal even though paper (SLV, GLD) was falling hard. This was especially true of silver, which has been falling off a cliff like the market. This is the decoupling I am seeing.

    For many years, PM dealers and experts have lamented that paper was preventing physical from finding its true price point. That's because the big banks (some of them anyway) have been rigging the pricing using paper (SLV, GLD). This will stop before much longer I am sure.

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  9. #7553

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Here is a link to one of the PM dealers I watch. Check out their alert at the top of the page.

    https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts

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  11. #7554

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market gave us another relief bounce, but they are not doing much to counter the overall damage to price. At least to this point.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The way it's been going, I would expect another down day tomorrow. It is possible the size of the moves may start diminishing at some point as the market eventually finds some measure of stability.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth also bounced, but obviously remains bearish.

    Precious metal is selling out across many bullion dealers and coin markets. What is available is priced at higher premiums above spot (primarily silver) than was the case just last week or even this past Monday. I do not expect "spot" to be relevant much longer. I'm thinking it becomes a relic of the past within weeks. At least in the current paper market. They may find an alternative to find more realistic price points as the paper market implodes.

    But as for the stock market, there is still no solid evidence that a bottom is in. I remain bearish.

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  13. #7555

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    True to form (of late), the market reversed Tuesday's gains and plumbed new lows.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P actually closed above Monday's low, but the DWCPF continues to fall off a cliff, so there isn't anything bullish to read into these charts yet.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is tracking lower with the stock charts.

    I remain bearish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  15. #7556

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Question: Any thoughts on the late day rallies today (3/18) and last Friday? I understand short covering, low volume and the hyper-reactivity currently in play (I think), but the size of late day moves in an environment in which there are lower highs and lower lows is puzzling to me.

    It's somewhat more understandable on a Friday, I suppose (if market psychology doesn't understand the exponential mathematics of pandemics). And perhaps today's late action is just a technical reaction revolving around S&P's 2350 level. Anyway, enough of my thoughts- yours?

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  17. #7557

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bravo Sierra View Post
    Question: Any thoughts on the late day rallies today (3/18) and last Friday? I understand short covering, low volume and the hyper-reactivity currently in play (I think), but the size of late day moves in an environment in which there are lower highs and lower lows is puzzling to me.

    It's somewhat more understandable on a Friday, I suppose (if market psychology doesn't understand the exponential mathematics of pandemics). And perhaps today's late action is just a technical reaction revolving around S&P's 2350 level. Anyway, enough of my thoughts- yours?
    It's anyone's guess. The market is largely driven by algos. And there is a battle (political) over control of the global financial system. It stands to reason there will be a lot that doesn't make sense as it plays out. Silver's significant nose dive is another thing that doesn't really make sense. I wish I could tell you with certainty, but I doubt even a lot of insiders really know, though they'll posit speculation. How's Frenchee doing? You still hang out at IHub?

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  19. #7558

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Lost touch with Frenchee, unfortunately.
    I check IHub from time to time b/c in spite of the fact I don't own any IDCC at the moment (sold at over 80 to pay for some of a daughter's grad school, yay) I still love that stupid company. They just got beat to hell, BTW, and have about $15 per share cash after debt and a real P/E (backward, of course, who's isn't) of about 26 if my math is right. Their price has gone stupid low (and high) in the past, but I'm hoping for stupid low again before too long. Regards

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  21. #7559

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    It's anyone's guess. The market is largely driven by algos. And there is a battle (political) over control of the global financial system. It stands to reason there will be a lot that doesn't make sense as it plays out. Silver's significant nose dive is another thing that doesn't really make sense. I wish I could tell you with certainty, but I doubt even a lot of insiders really know, though they'll posit speculation. How's Frenchee doing? You still hang out at IHub?
    silver is down because it is mainly an industrial metal now. it reacts to manufacturing slowdowns like copper does.
    "Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798

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  23. #7560

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Valkyrie View Post
    silver is down because it is mainly an industrial metal now. it reacts to manufacturing slowdowns like copper does.
    That does not explain why physical silver is being snapped up at a very fast pace (I mean it's disappearing from inventories). It also does not explain why all metals are dropping, not just silver. And then there is the very real disconnect now between price in the paper market (spot) and what sellers are selling it for and what buyers are willing to pay. In other words, not many care about the spot price right now.

    The game is changing.


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