With bonds, gold, and silver all dumping at the same time as equities I think this means a cash run.
Thus, deflation as the dollar gets stronger. That is probably why the Fed is throwing money into the system. They don't want a strong dollar. They want their dollar - whatever that is.
And, don't forget - the price of oil just dumped as Saudi Arabia and Russia started playing games to regain market share. That also makes the dollar stronger.
The Fed is always worried about inflation, but we have been on the edge of deflation since 2007. Deflation is a very bad thing.
Don't do debt, get out of debt. Go Full Dave Ramsey!!!
Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!
That's what we were going to do and literally a day or two ago you could get a 30 year VA loan for 3% and now it is 3.75%. There are reasons I found on Google for it such as lenders being overwhelmed driving the rates significantly higher. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200312.html
The bears had their way with the market again today. A massive liquidity injection delivered a brief respite, but then the selling kicked in again.
S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png
Ugly just got uglier. Momentum is almost vertical to the downside.
NYAD.png
Breadth remains quite ugly too (of course).
NAAIM got more bearish. They were pretty predictive of the upside for a long time. The reading this week suggests more selling for the next week (not necessarily each day).
I remain bearish.
Wow, I feel even luckier after reading these posts since my wife and I locked in our refi rate with our VA loan at Navy Federal at 2.875% (with zero points) a few days ago.
They're definitely overwhelmed since we haven't heard a peep from them since then, but I've get that locked in rate in writing.
I think there will be another opportunity in the future though as rates gravitate toward zero, maybe around June this year.
Why not strive to be debt free instead of playing musical chairs with a mortgage the rest of your life? Reminds me of July 2007 when Chuck Prince, CEO of Citigroup said, "When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” He was a professional with access to the best information available and we know how that turned out.
I wonder how many people use HELOC's to pay for the lifetime lease on their SUV?
It's an unsustainable system.
I'm debt free save for the mortgage, which I'm paying extra on to close it out early.
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
In my post dated 2/24, I said that "Today's sell-off fees like a switch may have been pulled".
It was. It was the beginning of serious downside pressure culminating into a bear market.
Friday's rally was pretty impressive. It also feels like a switch may have been pulled, but I am not as comfortable with that feeling as I was the first time.
S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png
The rally, impressive as it was, did not completely erase the previous day's losses. With volatility at a high level, the market could just as easily reverse once more. It's just too early to embrace the long side in my opinion, and I know how it feels to be wrong and watch price continue to rise while remaining on the sidelines.
The latest reading from NAAIM is heavily beared up. The CBOE is also beared up. I don't like betting against smart money (NAAIM), but it's only a weekly sentiment reading and things could change between readings.
NYAD.png
Breadth bounced again, but the trend is still down according to the chart.
This is a tough market right now. It's a guessing game what happens day to day with everything that is going on. The indicators are still bearish and that is what my personal sentiment is tied to. Let's see how Monday goes after Friday's moon shot.
With the FED lowering the the interest rate to 0.25% I think we may have another UP day TOMORROW. So far the futures are down.
Fed slashes main interest rate to near zero in historic move designed to cushion economic blow of coronavirus pandemic
https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-...economy-2020-3
"Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7
FED: "I know what you're thinking: 'Did he fire six shots or only five?'"
Market: "That was six, that was definitely your last bullet."
FED: "Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself. But being this is a FED rate cut, the most powerful weapon in the world, and would blow your chart clean up..."
Market: "Well, it might, you know, under normal circumstances and all- but what good is free fiat currency when everyone's hunkered down streaming Netflix with a surplus of toilet paper and bottled water? And that was your last bullet, dude."
FED: "...you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do you, punk?"
Market: "Yeah, not so much. Would you please back off, you know, social distance and all...but that was your last bullet, definitely your last bullet, so I think we're both screwed for awhile."
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
||
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
Bookmarks