coolhand's Account Talk

**tom4jean** · 03-08-2020, 01:07 AM

Originally Posted by coolhand

It was a wild week last week, and price on the S&P 500 and DWCPF closed mixed on the week. One was up and the other was down.

Attachment 45609
Attachment 45608

The S&P 500 closed with a moderate weekly gain (doesn't feel like it, does it?). However, the DWCPF got whacked and closed at a fresh low. Momentum points lower on both charts.Price is under the 200 dma on both charts as well.

Attachment 45610

I don't show this chart much, but this is where I get my CBOE reading. The CBOE is considered dumb money, but they have been bearish for about 2 weeks now. Dumb? I have not been using this sentiment as a contrarian indicator for some time now. I treat it more like smart money, but it isn't as accurate as NAAIM, which is true smart money. NAAIM gave us a solid bearish reading last Thursday.

TRIN and TRINQ are neutral heading into Monday.

Attachment 45607

Breadth headed even lower on Friday. This is not a healthy chart if you're a bull.

My perspective on sentiment has changed over the past 2 years or so. Because the CB has been losing control (or lost control), I believe many indicators are now suspect. I also believe that the current market carnage is not so much historic as it is biblical. Many of you will not understand what I am talking about (some of you will), but I am very confident that over time much will become more clear as things come into focus in the rear view mirror. My point here is that lower prices are likely, but I don't know how low or how long this goes on. The oil market is reeling. Bonds are in trouble. The banks are in trouble (QE, REPO, etc.). We have news of the virus (fear mongering) just about everywhere (constantly). I could go on, but you get the picture.

I am watching gold and silver carefully, because I don't think it will be long before they break free of manipulation. J.P. Morgan is under investigation for RICO charges (Jamie Dimon supposedly had emergency heart surgery in the past 2 days). Draw your own conclusions, but I don't think it's a coincidence. I am hearing that the days of price rigging may be coming to a close in the not-too-distant future.

It seems chaos is accelerating. If ever the phrase "it's different this time" applies, I think this may be it.

Sorry if I have no good news, I am just telling it as I see it (currently). I remain bearish.

Loved the last lines, you sounded like the oracle

. Of course she told him what he needed to hear.

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**coolhand** · 03-09-2020, 06:23 PM

By now, many are now realizing that buying the dip is not working. The CB has always lulled market participants (over a long period of time) to expect higher prices over time. It works and works and works for a long time and then...the plug gets pulled when we don't expect it. That's what they do. And it comes down a whole lot faster than it went it up. Great system, huh? Who benefits?

It ain't us. You have to be in the club and we ain't in it (George Carlin quip). Profanity laced George Carlin video...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUaqFzZLxU

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

What can I say about these charts that isn't already obvious? The market has fallen off a cliff.

NYAD.png

Breadth is just as ugly.

I'm going to toss TRIN and TRINQ in my commentary for now because they are not helping at all.

But NAAIM is. And they're pretty bearish as of last week. The CBOE is heavily beared up again for tomorrow.

I don't think the carnage is over. It will stop eventually, but the market was really, really up there and now has a long way it can fall. I have no idea where the bottom might be either. 666 was the bottom for the S&P in last really big sell-off. And it was no accident it stopped at that number. I don't think we come anywhere near that number this time, but it won't be up to the CB like it has in the past. They have already lost control.

I remain bearish.

**DreamboatAnnie** · 03-09-2020, 06:32 PM

Gosh... sadly I agree. Not much to be said at this point.

**bmneveu** · 03-09-2020, 07:22 PM

Originally Posted by coolhand

666 was the bottom for the S&P in last really big sell-off. And it was no accident it stopped at that number. I don't think we come anywhere near that number this time

2666 wouldn't be too bad... 1666 though..

**nnuut** · 03-09-2020, 07:35 PM

Thanks for the Video Coolhand, George was right!

**Rod** · 03-09-2020, 07:58 PM

Thank you for the continued analysis.

**1965Vintage** · 03-09-2020, 09:15 PM

It wasn't like there weren't warning signs.
It was actually crazy how long the market ignored the Coronavirus. Kind of "arrogant" for lack of a better word.

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**Rod** · 03-09-2020, 09:24 PM

Originally Posted by 1965Vintage

It wasn't like there weren't warning signs.
It was actually crazy how long the market ignored the Coronavirus. Kind of "arrogant" for lack of a better word.

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Darn right.

**pmaloney** · 03-09-2020, 09:31 PM

Maybe arrogant, maybe ignorant but the bottome line is that whatever or however the tests were conducted, right now they are only reporting around 600 known infections and about 22 deaths in the US but these are obviously the first reliable test results of those that were obviously showing severe symptoms. The original social media of a communistic quarantine solution were disturbing but further testing will probably normalize the death ratio further down.

I'm far more worried about the repeat of the Saudi cheap oil glut of 2015 to 2016.

**coolhand** · 03-10-2020, 06:09 PM

The market give the bulls a relief today. It felt good, I'm sure, but it may be a dead cat bounce.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

There is no indication that a bottom may be in, unless it's a "V" bottom. I suspect it isn't.

NYAD.png

Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.

The CBOE is very bearish heading into Wednesday.

Futures are already pointing lower. Volatility will very likely make it challenging to pick buy and sell points. I remain bearish.

**1965Vintage** · 03-10-2020, 08:02 PM

It's a dead cat bounce for sure. Anyone who knows anything about charts knows it.
The problem is....in the TSP you are limited to what you can do.
The TSP is a joke!
I may take everything out, pay the taxes and penalties.
To hell with the government and their limits.
I can't wait to leave this outfit.
I'm so tired of watching money wasted at my facility. $150k for a heat and air unit?
(2000 sq. ft building!)
$600 for simple shelves from GSA?
GSA is worse than the Mafia!

Criminal!

It's sickening! The waste!

The government is broken. I feel dirty working for them. Can't wait to retire and get this filth off my hands.
And I'm a Republican!!!

Trump was supposed to drain the swamp......
But I still have to work in hip waders to keep the muck out!

I'm "fed" up!

Sorry for the rant, but I'm upset tonight.

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**coolhand** · 03-10-2020, 08:11 PM

Originally Posted by 1965Vintage

It's a dead cat bounce for sure. Anyone who knows anything about charts knows it.
The problem is....in the TSP you are limited to what you can do.
The TSP is a joke!
I may take everything out, pay the taxes and penalties.
To hell with the government and their limits.
I can't wait to leave this outfit.
I'm so tired of watching money wasted at my facility. $150k for a heat and air unit?
(2000 sq. ft building!)
$600 for simple shelves from GSA?
GSA is worse than the Mafia!

Criminal!

It's sickening! The waste!

The government is broken. I feel dirty working for them. Can't wait to retire and get this filth off my hands.
And I'm a Republican!!!

Trump was supposed to drain the swamp......
But I still have to work in hip waders to keep the muck out!

I'm "fed" up!

Sorry for the rant, but I'm upset tonight.

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

You sound like me when I was still active in Civil Service.

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)	DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)	EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)	BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)
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