Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

James 5:16 "the ferverent effectual prayer of a righteous man availeth much"

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Sending good thoughts your way CH. I hope your Father gets well soon!

Another pretty ugly day today. An attempted reversal was itself reversed.

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We have plenty of technical damage now. Price closed pretty much at session lows.

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Breadth is also ugly.

The CBOE was bearish again yesterday, but they are not reporting until later in the evening. I don't have a read this evening either.

TRIN remains bearish and TRINQ remains neutral.

NAAIM is bearish in the short term, but still bullish longer term.

Lots of fear mongering going in the MSM. Try not to get wrapped up in it. There are agendas behind them.

I remain bearish for now. I do not know where the bottom might be, but it would not surprise me if we are still well away from the bottom. I do expect some up days here and there while this selling plays out.

It isn't just stocks getting slammed. Precious metals are getting hammered too. It sure looks like the CB is making a desperate attempt to stay in control by attempting to decimate the financial system. I really don't think this will work, but it still won't be fun riding through it.

Originally Posted by coolhand

It isn't just stocks getting slammed. Precious metals are getting hammered too. It sure looks like the CB is making a desperate attempt to stay in control by attempting to decimate the financial system. I really don't think this will work, but it still won't be fun riding through it.

Noticed that too. Commodities like gold, silver, oil are getting hammered. Usually those are safe havens.

What do you mean by 'CB'? I have never seen that acronym before...

I think the meaning was Central Bank

CB=central bank. Very tempted but no move for me. 2950 may be a ceiling based on past few minutes. Hope it breaks but not chancing it with this fear driven market behavior.

Plus money is still going into bonds.

Good luck!

Thanks guys...

I hope the Central Bank sits this stupidity out. They are there to protect the value of money - not play games with the stock market.

This should be short lived, but I lost my sticky pants today. I'm still going to have a decent chuck in equities (total of 50%) but I don't really want to 'play the game'. That is why I underweighted the 'F Fund' from my normal Conservative Allocation. Huge money has been flowing into AGG during this washout, I don't want to be around when it starts flowing out.

GLHF

The current sell-off is now in historic territory in terms of speed and depth.

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The charts speak for themselves. The question is, how much worse can it get? There was an interesting reversal that happened in the final 20 minutes or so of Friday's trading. Was that the bottom? I don't know, but it won't take long to find out.

For Monday, the CBOE is very bearish. But interestingly, TRIN is very bullish and TRINQ is also leaning that way.

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Breadth remains very bearish.

Sentiment shows TSP Talk very beared up. That is probably how many surveys look about now. However, NAAIM is not nearly as bearish. That survey gives the bulls hope that a reversal is just a matter of time. It is still not a guarantee, but that is what is suggested.

So, we have mixed indicators, which is not unusual given there are probably entities running in both directions about now. I am going neutral as a result, but it won't take long to see if this week picks up where the last one left off (aside from the late day rally on Friday).

Mixed signals = more down action...imo, and history of similar events confirms, sentiment has to reach low 20s bulls, and high 40s bears, for something like this to bottom and turn. Volume, while large, can go higher. This type of event, a disease (if that is the catalyst for selling, which it may not be 100%), isn't going to be mitigated by interest rate cuts. Even if others think different, the FED knows that and won't intervene. Seeya at 2600.

Originally Posted by amoeba

This type of event, a disease (if that is the catalyst for selling, which it may not be 100%),

You are correct. IMHO, COVID-19 certainly isn't the reason for the initial pullback. It was already long overdue. But, COVID-19 seems to have been the accelerant, along with bond yields (which have been inverting long before COVID-19 came along) for the fastest correction in history. It was going to happen sooner or later with or without COVID-19. COVID-19 simply allowed us to get it out of the way sooner and much more rapidly. But, now we have to deal with the long-term, unforeseen affects of COVID-19 upon the global economy.

Perhaps Mr. Market will once again become complacent to COVID-19 like it was doing the previous weeks leading up to the pullback and eventual correction... when I was sounding the alarm on here. Or, is that now too much to ask for?