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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7249

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by 1965Vintage View Post
    In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
    Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

    Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    I agree. I've been G fund for over a year. Many want to try to continue making gains as long as this bull is alive, but risk is off the charts.

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  3. #7250

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by 1965Vintage View Post
    In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
    Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

    Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    My dumb money went in on the 1st. Still have 60% in G standing by. Thought about pulling all out to G but then I miss out on the bottom IF it gets confirmed sometime soon.

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  5. #7251

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by BooDog View Post
    My dumb money went in on the 1st. Still have 60% in G standing by. Thought about pulling all out to G but then I miss out on the bottom IF it gets confirmed sometime soon.
    The reason so many continue to invest or time the market is that there is few other places to make money. TSP does not allow shorting and we only have 2 IFTs (generally) per month, so we're handcuffed there. There is no real money in the G fund either, but it does serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Money rates have been in the dirt for well over a decade. That isn't helping retirees who want to play it safe since they generally don't want to work if they can avoid it. They don't want the risks of stocks either. But "they" want us in their manipulated market and not in cash or the sidelines. Or gold or silver. Or Crypto. Blah, blah, blah. X22 Report is one the best sites for explaining the financial risks we are all facing.

    While it may seem we have control over our financial future, the reality is that most cannot navigate the Central Bank system of manipulation. It is a global multi-headed cabal (monster) that is not interested in our financial well-being.

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  7. #7252

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got the bounce, but it was underwhelming. For the most part, the charts did not change.

    Breadth did move higher and is back to a neutral stance. TRINQ, which was bullish yesterday, is now somewhat bearish for Thursday. TRIN remains neutral.

    The options are still not posting correctly. The OEX is still showing last Friday's chart. The CBOE posted for yesterday (finally), but not for today (yet). They normally get posted around 6 pm and shortly thereafter. I am not sure what to think. I say that because J.P. Morgan is under criminal investigation (RICO) for fraud (among other things). There is a lot going on that we do not have visibility of, so I get suspicious easy these days.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting.

    I note that futures have fallen hard after hours on sour China trade talks. We may be headed to the June lows. A lot can happen before the open, so I won't speculate too much.

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  9. #7253

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH- why so interested or place so much weight on X22 report...I am sure you have explained before so pardon my ignorance...
    EJJ

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  11. #7254

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by shitepoke View Post
    CH- why so interested or place so much weight on X22 report...I am sure you have explained before so pardon my ignorance...
    EJJ
    Our world is changing quickly. If anyone out there is unaware (there are many), I suggest you think about finding out what is really going on because we will all be impacted in some way as we move forward. I don't want this to sound ominous (in the end things will be great), but there may very well be a period of time where there is uncertainty. If you are informed, you can at least be prepared. This subject is too deep for me to get into particulars, that's why I push the X22 Report. It's about getting informed to what is for many, a hidden reality.

    WWG1WGA


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  13. #7255

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    We got the bounce, but it was underwhelming. For the most part, the charts did not change.

    Breadth did move higher and is back to a neutral stance. TRINQ, which was bullish yesterday, is now somewhat bearish for Thursday. TRIN remains neutral.

    The options are still not posting correctly. The OEX is still showing last Friday's chart. The CBOE posted for yesterday (finally), but not for today (yet). They normally get posted around 6 pm and shortly thereafter. I am not sure what to think. I say that because J.P. Morgan is under criminal investigation (RICO) for fraud (among other things). There is a lot going on that we do not have visibility of, so I get suspicious easy these days.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting.

    I note that futures have fallen hard after hours on sour China trade talks. We may be headed to the June lows. A lot can happen before the open, so I won't speculate too much.
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oex.asp

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  15. #7256

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So, the DWCPF has successfully tested support multiple times. The chart still looks dicey as there is no real evidence of solid buying activity. At least in terms of a sustained rally. The S&P 500 closed back above its 50 dma, but not with any real authority. It's as if the market is simply being kept from falling apart rather than trying to resume its bullish longer term bias. Now, that doesn't mean things can't change and the market at some point soars to the upside. That could still happen.

    I saw that the traders on Trader's Talk also noted that the OEX data is no longer being supported on stockcharts. This was a smart money indicator for me, but was largely only useful in the very short term (daily). In fact, stockcharts no longer recognizes the symbol to pull up the data, so it's gone. Wonder why?

    The CBOE is still available and is showing the dumb money as being bullish. As I have noted in previous posts, I can no longer use it as a contrarian indicator as it often is in line with the following day's market action.

    NAAIM was largely unchanged today and remains neutral. No real help there other than to suggest a floor under the market and ceiling over it.

    Breadth flipped positive again, but the problem is that it's tracking sideways and is no longer in an uptrend.

    I have nothing to indicate that market character is going to change. I think we continue to see up/down action, but it may have a bias to the downside.
    Last edited by coolhand; 10-10-2019 at 07:33 PM.

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  17. #7257

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yeah, this article pretty much sums up my current feelings.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nonse...181659112.html

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  19. #7258

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Yeah, this article pretty much sums up my current feelings.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nonse...181659112.html
    Interesting article. If the markets hold today, I know it's still early, I wish I was all in instead of 50/50 G/S. But 50% of something is better than 50% of nothing.
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #7259

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The Market is NNUUTS!!!anxiety.gifbroke.gif



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  23. #7260

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Here is what I said prior to the start of last Monday's trading,

    "I like what I am seeing from a bullish perspective. I am cautiously optimistic that a bottom may be in. But until NAAIM takes a more bullish stance, we have to temper upside expectations. I am anticipating a positive week."

    As the week played, price was kept under pressure and went neutral and then modestly bearish by mid-week. To be honest, and I indicated this in my posts, the indicators were not helping us all that much as price kept following the news.

    Then, the bulls got some upward traction on Thursday. And then on Friday word of progress in the China trade arena sent stocks soaring even more. And guess what...we closed with gains for the week.

    It was a tough week to trade for sure.

    Price on the S&P is now firmly above its 50 dma. Price on the DWPCF is back above its 200 dma and is currently testing its 50 dma. Breadth has improved dramatically is bullish. The CBOE is bullish. NAAIM is still neutral, however. But that reading came before the China trade news. They likely made adjustments since, but I can't guess where they might stand now.

    Friday's action was bullish. There was conviction in the move. Breadth is looking very good, very quickly. I am going out on a limb and say that there is likely more upside to be had.

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