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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7237

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    My recently minted bearish disposition was on target. Wednesday's action was ugly. Price on the S&P plunged and closed well under its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF is currently testing its previous lows.

    Breadth plunged deeper as well. In the past, it would bounce soon after plunging to the extent that is has right now. Is a bottom near? Hold that thought.

    The OEX and CBOE are neutral. We already know that NAAIM was neutral as of last week.

    I watch no shortage of videos regarding market action. I don't normally comment on it, but the past few days I am hearing several market managers who are quite concerned with the Repo's the CB is currently deploying. This is being interpreted as something to be concerned about. It seems to be indicating that the banks are in trouble. Many charts look similar to those of past market crashes. The current political climate certainly supports this possibility as well. I am not predicting such, but I need to point it out. It is almost impossible to predict exactly when a market may crash given that smoke and mirrors are tools of their trade. I recommend considering how much risk you really want to take in such a market.

    If this market is going to bottom, it needs to bottom soon. There is another support area at the June lows, but we could blow through that quickly if panic set in.

    Consider how you would react should price begin to fall in earnest. Again, I am not saying that this is imminent because I cannot predict an event like this, but you may not have a lot of time to react should things really start to fall apart.

    I am looking for a bounce. I am guessing that the powers that be may not be interested in a deep plunge at this time, but I could be wrong.

    Let's see where NAAIM stands tomorrow. That may help.

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  3. #7238

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The selling continued early on today, but the bulls managed to turn it around to post moderate gains by the close. But it didn't change the trend. It's only a bounce to this point.
    The technical indicators did not change that much. Breadth remains negative, though it did turn up. TRINQ is bullish this evening.

    The CBOE looks bullish, while the OEX is neutral. NAAIM got more bearish, but remains neutral. It appears the bears among them got more short, while the bulls are holding tight to long positions. This tells me volatility will continue.

    I don't think the market falls apart at this time, but that doesn't mean we can't probe lower. I also don't think an extended rally is in the cards either.

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  5. #7239

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls put together a second day of gains on Friday, which significantly made up losses earlier in the week, but did not entirely erase them. Still, it's a victory when considering where the indicators that I follow are currently sitting.

    Price on the S&P closed back over its 50 dma, while the price on the DWCPF closed back over its 200 dma. Certainly, that's at least somewhat encouraging.

    More importantly in my opinion, breadth flipped back to a positive condition.

    The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk came in decidedly bullish. We don't get too beared up anymore, but we are bearish now (that's bullish).

    I like what I am seeing from a bullish perspective. I am cautiously optimistic that a bottom may be in. But until NAAIM takes a more bullish stance, we have to temper upside expectations. I am anticipating a positive week.

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  7. #7240

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NwP3wes4M8

    I’m with you CH. This newbie sure is feeling it. Thanks again every day for your expertise and insight.
    Last edited by wahinepio; 10-07-2019 at 11:30 AM.

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  9. #7241

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm not with CH on this one....I see failure late in the week.

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  11. #7242

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    I'm not with CH on this one....I see failure late in the week.
    That's why the boat never leans too far to one side.

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  13. #7243

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I got my paddle labeled IFT. Just waiting on words from the wise.

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  15. #7244

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls gave back some gains today, but losses were contained. The S&P 500 is still testing its 50 dma and the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma. That's the current battleground.

    The options have not posted. Breadth dipped and is now neutral. Most other indicators are looking neutral as well.

    I am still leaning bullish for the week, but I am not overly bullish. As I've said recently, until NAAIM gets more bullish, we have to temper bullish expectations. I think the back and forth battle will continue for the time being.

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  17. #7245

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls took yet another pounding on Tuesday. Price on the S&P has closed back below its 50 dma, while the DWCPF closed at a lower low, but only by hair. The DWCPF has tested this area several times over the past 2 months. Is this support or is price determined to break it? That is the big question.

    Along with the technical damage that remains in evidence on the charts, breadth has flipped bearish once more. But, it's fallen enough to look for another reversal.

    TRINQ (Nasdaq) is bullish this evening. TRIN (NYSE) is neutral.

    I don't know why, but the options data is not updating on stockcharts. The OEX has not updated since last Friday and the CBOE has not updated since yesterday. I don't know why I did not notice the OEX sooner, but it could be that there is a technical glitch on the website. In other words, it may have been updated and then for some reason reverted to a previous date. I am not sure.

    So the market remains vulnerable to selling pressure. So far, it hasn't gotten super ugly and that might be telling us something. The fact that NAAIM still has plenty of bulls despite being neutral overall does suggest there may some measure of floor under the market. I don't know if we've found it yet or not. I will be interested in where NAAIM stands this week, but we won't know for another 2 days.

    There is no shortage of drama in the political sphere and that is not helping. But markets are often perverse. They can defy expectations. We're all familiar with that reality.

    We'll just have to see if support holds at this point.


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  19. #7246

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So how is it looking smart money vs. dumb money?
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #7247

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    So how is it looking smart money vs. dumb money?
    It's been neutral overall, but moving towards bearish. Futures are up big this morning. Bottom or just a bounce? QE is pumping.

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  23. #7248

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
    Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

    Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

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