Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by BooDog

Looks like I may be seeing my 2750 on the SPY before this is all over.

2750 would be in the area of horizontal support from the June low, but 2825 has held twice (so far) and we have the 200 dma below that, which is just above the rising 200 dma (just under 2800). I'm not favoring 2750 at the moment, but it is in play.

I take it you are on the sidelines and looking for reentry?

2825 huh...Interesting as that would be 200 points below the 3025.86 set on 26 July, which was a new all time high for the S&P. Patiently watching for now.

P.S. Thanks again for your great commentary. Always a good read!

Originally Posted by coolhand

2750 would be in the area of horizontal support from the June low, but 2825 has held twice (so far) and we have the 200 dma below that, which is just above the rising 200 dma (just under 2800). I'm not favoring 2750 at the moment, but it is in play.

I take it you are on the sidelines and looking for reentry?

I went in yesterday 10% each C,S, & I. I knew I shouldn't have but was willing to risk a little (not that 30% is chump change ). Now I wait for bottom confirmation. I have been watching yours as well as Bquat's charts and commentary. Very helpful in making my own plans, good or bad lol.

I almost went in partial today, watching the action, either a bottom forming or a pause on the way down.

The market opened significantly lower today, but it wasn't long before the bulls began to claw back the losses over the balance of the trading session.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Both charts actually closed positive today. That's a bullish sign, but I wouldn't be complacent given the underlying global battle being waged over financial control of the markets. Gold and silver are soaring. Crypto (I follow Bitcoin primarily) is also holding up well as money is looking for safer havens. That doesn't' necessarily mean the bull is over (though it might). If this was a "V" bottom, I'd have expected a more solid upside push. Instead we are seeing significant volatility. But a bottom may be in. We just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Breadth remains negative, but it's steady. I note that TRINQ is low this evening, which could mean another bout of selling tomorrow. The OEX is modestly bearish too. But the CBOE remains on the bullish side.

I am leaning bearish for Thursday, though I am not particularly bearish overall. I am actually neutral until the market reveals more evidence of its intent to either resume a downside push or begin a climb to the upside. We do have some support below. Now we need to see if there is resistance above. Certainly, the 50 dma might be if price manages to test it.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting given how bullish they were last week before being ambushed.

"I am leaning bearish for Thursday, though I am not particularly bearish overall. I am actually neutral until the market reveals more evidence of its intent to either resume a downside push or begin a climb to the upside. We do have some support below. Now we need to see if there is resistance above. Certainly, the 50 dma might be if price manages to test it."

This is push me pull me time. I was impressed the bulls almost closed the DJIA green yesterday and the SPY and NASDAQ actually pulled it off. We're certainly not out of the woods yet. Still have a few weeks of summertime volatility. Tie that with banks cutting basis points, the recent fed move and the looming trade meeting with China. And of course the tweets going one way and China being more willing to openly manipulate.
As seen in the market commentary https://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php there were some major charts showing the lows held for support. Make no mistake, some were rattled imo, and it doesn't take that much to put fear into the markets these days imo. But that also brings opportunity. I'm neutral to slightly bullish going into September. Still have one move left for August though so if I'm wrong and support does break, I'm ready.

If we weren't limited in our moves I'm thinking many here would be making bank big time with this volatility.

Originally Posted by BooDog

If we weren't limited in our moves I'm thinking many here would be making bank big time with this volatility.

You're right. That is why the limits were imposed on us in 2008. They can't have us making money now, can they?

After today's launch, I guess we now know what direction the market wants to go.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Both charts show price closing above their respective 50 dma. Momentum has quickly turned up.

Cumulative breadth has flipped positive. My intermediate term system remains negative, but it's improving.

The OEX and CBOE are both neutral. NAAIM was an interesting ready. The bulls among them didn't flinch from their long positions, but the bears have placed some shorts. The reading is bullish at face value.

Futures are pointing much lower this evening, but it's difficult to trust them as momentum has shifted to the upside. Still, today's rally may very well spawn a pullback. Let's see if the 50 dma can hold.

That 48% bear reading should make this a screaming buy, especially if it opens down Monday, shouldn't it? I have settled cash, IFTs, itching to get back in.

Originally Posted by amoeba

That 48% bear reading should make this a screaming buy, especially if it opens down Monday, shouldn't it? I have settled cash, IFTs, itching to get back in.

Sentiment is not what it used to be. That's why I focus on select surveys. I abandoned AAII more than a year ago because I no longer saw any correlation to the markets. Even TSP Talk's survey is not as useful as it used to be. I still post it, but I can't use it in isolation. The options don't work as well as they once did either. In fact, I find that the dumb money (CBOE) is more often aligned with market direction than not. In other words, it shouldn't be used as a contrarian indicator anymore. These I my observations of the past few years. The only survey I still place significant stock (pun intended) in is NAAIM, which I have spoken of many times in my daily postings. When I post my weekend thoughts I'll see where I stand overall as we head into the new week.

Friday's market action saw the bears drive price back below the 50 dma on both the S&P 500 and DWCPF. Has the 50 dma now become resistance? Maybe in the short term, but I don't think the bulls are done. This is still a bull market, after all.

For the week, all 3 TSP stock funds closed lower, but the difference in closing price from Monday to Friday was significant. In other words, the bulls retraced the bulk of losses over the course of the week and are now poised to retake the 50 dma if they can keep the pressure on.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

For some reason, the charts on the stockcharts website are not loading. I downloaded the above charts on Friday when I wasn't having that problem. But I did look at all the charts Friday, so I'll have to go by memory here.

The options were neutral (CBOE, OEX). TSP Talk was relatively unchanged and is neutral (we're leaning bullish). NAAIM remains largely bullish, though the bears among them put on some shorts, so expect continued volatility. Cumulative breadth flipped negative again after Friday's reversal. The selling wasn't benign, there was volume behind it. That is another indication to expect more volatility.

Overall, I suspect the bulls are going to make it very difficult for the bears to have their way with the market. And I think the bears will ultimately get worn down as the bull comes back to life. NAAIM's overall positioning supports this perspective. I am not sure how the new week will end, but I am siding with the bulls.