Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Breakout!

It took some time, but there was no mistaking the breakout in the small cap space today.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

While the S&P 500 is testing is previous peak, the DWCPF blew past resistance in a way that leaves little doubt that the break is for real.

Even more compelling was that cumulative breadth spiked higher. That's often a sign that there may be more upside coming.

The OEX has not reported at this time, but the CBOE is neutral.

We got some bullish action today that is very suggestive of more to come. NAAIM reports in the morning.

Yesterday, the DWCPF had what appeared to be a decisive upside breakout. And cumulative breadth seemed to confirm the move with its own upside spike. One day later and the gains were significantly pared. Fake out?

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

First, it isn't unusual to have a reversal after a big move. Second, not all gains were erased (to this point). I suspect the selling may be short lived.

Cumulative breadth did dip, but still remains bullish. I'm reporting early today so I don't have the options data, but I do have the NAAIM data and that's much more important to me.

NAAIM saw the bears significantly back off on their shorts and the bulls got more bullish. In fact, the reading is as bullish as I've seen it in many weeks. So, the smart money is loading up. Any questions?

The aaii bull reading for 7/25 is 32, downfrom 36% the prior week...hasn't really moved either way in July by my eyes.

Originally Posted by amoeba

The aaii bull reading for 7/25 is 32, downfrom 36% the prior week...hasn't really moved either way in July by my eyes.

In my opinion, most sentiment surveys don't have the value they once had. I find that NAAIM is an exception if one knows how to evaluate it. I can't use it for surgical moves nearly as effectively as a longer term strategy, however. But as a longer term strategy it's been pretty accurate. You just have to be willing to endure volatility from time to time.

Last week, the bulls took back control of market direction (short term), pushing both the S&P 500 and DWCPF to fresh highs. Both indexes were up significantly, but the EFA (I Fund) remained near neutral, which may in part be due to a rising dollar.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

So the charts are looking decidedly bullish. The long term trend remains up.

My intermediate term system remains bullish, but it did come close to flipping negative just a week ago. That is now in the rear view mirror for the time being.

Cumulative breadth turned back up on Friday and remains bullish.

The options are neutral for Monday. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk got bulled up after last week. As long as we are leaning in the direction of NAAIM, risk should be mitigated in the face of rising stock prices (indexes).

And that remains my perspective. Follow the smart money (NAAIM).

Is the thread open. I not received any new posting since 7/27/19.

Is the thread open. I have not received any new posting since 7/27/19.

Just very quiet around here. Look for people to post more tomorrow and Wednesday since it is the end of the month.

Monday's action continues the back and forth battle between bulls and bears, with the bears taking back some of Friday's gains.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The charts remain bullish. Momentum has gone largely flat, but the upside bias is still readily seen on the charts.

The options are neutral for Tuesday. Breadth is bullish.

I see no changes to the bullish picture. Let's see if the bulls bounced back tomorrow.

Interesting day today as the DWCPF ended the day with moderate gains, but the S&P 500 fell moderately.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Despite the mixed close, both charts are still poised to challenge overhead resistance.

This evening, the OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is leaning bullish. My intermediate term system remains bullish as does cumulative breadth.

Nothing has changed. Wednesday looks neutral, but the bulls continue to hold the advantage and the positive trend should continue.

We have quite a battle going on for control of price in the major averages.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The DWCPF reversed for the 6th day in a row, this time falling back to the bottom of a short-term trading range. Price actually hit a fresh high intra-day, but the bulls were not able to make it stick. One the other hand, the S&P 500 is now having trouble holding ground as price fell rather hard, breaking support intra-day before closing the session near that support level (around 2980). Momentum has turned back down.

My intermediate term system remains positive. I note that TRIN and TRINQ closed at high levels, which is bullish for Thursday, so we may get yet another reversal. Breadth remains bullish. The options look neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I am expecting this market to break to upside in the days ahead. Let's see how NAAIM positions tomorrow (I anticipate it will be bullish).