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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7021

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The melt up continued today.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    For this evening, the options are looking a bit bearish, so we might have some measure of weakness on Tuesday. Breadth remains bullish, so any downside will likely remain contained.

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  3. #7022

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As expected, we got some weakness today. And as also expected, the downside remained contained.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    In fact, while the DWCPF dipped modestly, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a gain. Both recovered from early selling pressure.

    My indicators are rather neutral this evening, though breadth is still bullish. The OEX is bearish this evening, while the CBOE is leaning bullish.

    The OEX suggests we may have more downside pressure coming, but it still should not amount to much with the CBOE leaning the other way. I'm thinking we may be in for a choppy day of trading.

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  5. #7023

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Signals were mixed on Tuesday, which had me looking for chop on Wednesday. And for most of the day, we got chop; until late in the afternoon session when the markets reacted negatively to what appeared to be a somewhat negative tone on inflation (transitory). That negative reaction took prices much lower by the close.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Still, the technical damage is benign (so far).

    My intermediate term system remains positive. I note that TRIN closed high, which is bullish for Thursday, but TRINQ was neutral, so maybe an uneven bounce? Breadth turned down, but remains positive. The OEX is now neutral, while the CBOE is on the bullish side.

    The indicators are pointing to a bounce, but can it hold if we get it? NAAIM reports in the morning.

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  7. #7024

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was looking for a bounce on Thursday and we got it, but it came early and then the sellers came in. Still, the market closed well off its lows and the DWCPF actually had a modest gain (no charts today).

    The selling flipped my intermediate term system negative, but there is still no serious price damage. Better yet for the bulls, NAAIM remains solidly bullish. The options are neutral.

    It appears the market is consolidating again before resuming its upward trend. Follow NAAIM.

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  9. #7025

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls managed to push the averages higher over the course of last week's trading. In other words, the melt-up continued.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    What's interesting to me, but not a surprise, is that the DWCPF closed at a fresh high on Friday despite my intermediate term system flipping negative the previous trading session. The S&P 500 it sitting at its highs as well. It confirms what I've recognized for quite some time, which is that this is not a normal market. Following indicators and sentiment have become at least a bit more tricky. That's why I've been focused on breadth and NAAIM as primary indicators (NAAIM being smart money).

    Breadth turned back up on Friday and remains firmly bullish. While my IT system flipped negative late last week, it's possible that some of it's signals have bottomed and that means the market may be poised for another leg up. It doesn't have to happen immediately, but I highly suspect that it will happen.

    The options show the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is decidedly bearish.

    I'm bullish heading into the new week. There just isn't any compelling evidence to look for serious downside action at this time.

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  11. #7026

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Futures point to a very red open, which is unusual in a market that is trending higher; seemingly oblivious to attempts to take it down in a meaningful way. Chances are that any downside will not last long, but I would not bet heavy on it. Something may be approaching that the insiders are aware of, though NAAIM didn't indicate such in their latest sentiment poll. What happens today may not be as important as what happens after that. All we can do is see what today brings and go from there.

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  13. #7027

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Cool
    do anticipate flat chop in equities for the week??
    EJJ

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  15. #7028

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This morning before I went to work, I noted that futures were down in the neighborhood of 2%. I posted my thoughts well before the open because once I leave home, I can't access the site (to post) until late in the day.

    Those who have been following me should know that I don't discuss geo-political events (to include anticipated events) on the board, but I still take them into account when assessing risk. There are political maneuverings that may be influencing risk right now (emphasis on the word "may"). The trick is to discern in which direction risk applies. The negative open might have been an early warning associated with increased risk, but it would depend on what happens over the days following.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The fact that the market recovered as well as it did significantly reduces downside risk for now. It appears the weak action was designed to emphasize the perceived negative impact of China walking away from trade talks. But it now appears it was just theater and a planned event.

    This evening, the options are bearish. Cumulative breadth dipped, but only modestly.

    I was bullish going into the new week, and given the market's recovery I can maintain my bullish stance for now, but I'll be paying a bit more attention to the theater that will continue to play out over the weeks ahead.

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  17. #7029

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by shitepoke View Post
    Cool
    do anticipate flat chop in equities for the week??
    EJJ
    I'm thinking we're hitting a patch of volatility. It should still resolve to the upside if the trend remains intact, but that's beyond this week's trading timeline. But news may drive this market higher if the Chinese trading situation resolves in favor of the U.S.


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  19. #7030

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After recovering from heavy losses on Monday, the market was tested once more and this time the bulls did not offset the losses by nearly as much. This turns a lot of technical indicators down.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 came close to testing its rising 50 dma. The DWCPF is also close to testing its 50 dma, but the chart still looks to be trading in an intermediate term range. The S&P 500 looks more bearish, but it's too soon to get overly concerned.

    Trade talks appear to the be the cause of the selling pressure and the market is making it known it doesn't like the prospect of more tariffs. But this situation can still turn around very quickly and catch newly minted bears off guard. Of course, we may not have a bottom yet either. Bullish sentiment is now getting tested a bit and the losses so far are not outside of the realistic possibility that we are seeing a minor market correction (it was due).

    Still, the geopolitical situation goes beyond trade tariffs as far as the potential catalysts for this market to sell off more than many might expect. I am not predicting such, but just pointing out that this selling pressure may be an early warning. If you are following any alternative news related to the financial markets, you'll probably have a good idea why I am at least a little wary.

    Be that as it may, it's still too early to embrace such a scenario as things could go the other way too.

    The options are looking a bit bullish this evening. TRINQ is bullish (1 day signal). Breadth is still positive, but under attack.

    As tempting as it is to flip bearish, I'm going to go neutral from my previous bullish outlook for the week because we're due a bounce after this much selling. I'm really looking forward to the next NAAIM reading, but that's not for another couple of days. They were bullish last week and that tells me that the downside should still be contained.

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  21. #7031

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was all over the place today, which may be part of a bottoming process. But there's still a lot of geopolitical churn and it's not insignificant, so we may be in for more volatility.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on both charts closed lower, but the 50 dma remains supportive.

    My intermediate term system is negative. Breadth is now neutral. The options are leaning on the bullish side. NAAIM reports in the morning.

    I remain neutral, but the market could be susceptible to big moves in one or both directions.

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  23. #7032

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The 50 dma is now getting tested on both charts as the bears chip away at recent gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    My intermediate term system continues to deteriorate (it's already negative). Momentum is bearish. Cumulative breadth is now negative (not by a lot).

    The options are bullish. NAAIM saw some money managers go short, but the bulk of these guys remain long. The longer term trend is still up. While a low may not be in, the indicators I am looking at suggest that the bulls will stage a comeback and it may be to new highs. But first we have to get past the pain.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
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